winter_rules

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah I just remember as a kid growing up in the inner city in the 90s and looking back at how bad it was. I never knew it was bad at the time and thought it was normal to hear gunshots nearly every weekend and getting broken into a few times while we lived there. Luckily it is much better than it was and is being economically revitalized. 

What happened to those “bad” people?  Did they just move to a different area nearby?  Move to a different city?  I have always wondered how society could deal with these areas where generations of people have lived lives of crime, drugs, etc.  It seems like a very difficult cycle to break. 

57 minutes ago, cny rider said:

The old saying rings true:  Out in the country we look up and startle when we hear sirens but don't do much when we hear gunshots.

In the city they ignore sirens but pay careful attention to gunshots.

That’s funny.  What struck me in the video was how the gun shots sounded like “pops” from little toy guns.  I’m used to hearing big rifles that “boom” and sometimes echo across the valley.  I probably hear at least a few big guns at some point every single weekend.  Now I wonder if sound from their pistols just doesn’t carry far enough for me to hear it.  My big gun doesn’t get used much, but my .22 gets fired probably an average of once per day….for bird feeder “maintenance.” 

7 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

Hondas last forever. I had 2 Civics, one got creamed by a truck with 117K and still had the original brakes. The other had 183K and could have reached 250K. 

My daily driver is a 2010 Civic with 139,000 miles.  I like the car, love the gas mileage, but have been disappointed with maintenance/repair needs.  I have had it for 3.5yrs since 60k miles.  I previously had 2 beater Ford Focuses, a beater Chevy Impala, a beater Chevy Malibu and then FINALLY splurged for a Civic….and then have been disappointed with it. 

3 hours ago, Buckeyes_Suck said:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/shocked-thank-god-16-old-190230265.html

Could be a great opportunity for Chevy to offer him a replacement truck, or cover repairs, or something like that.  That video really was a legitimate advertisement for them. He said the right things to make you want to route for him (job interview, taking care of it). 
 

As an upstate NY vehicle owner, I can’t help but be jealous of the condition of his +/-20yr old truck.  Trucks of that era are now badly rusted out up here.  My 2015 pickup already has the blisters on the box side. I had it undercoated (oil style, not paint style) when I bought it in 2020, but it was too late for those notorious areas.

Photo of the truck in the article below:

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/north-texas-chevy-dealer-gifts-teen-caught-in-tornado-new-truck/2923922/?amp

57 minutes ago, Buckeyes_Suck said:

Some needs to add the old chevy "like a rock" commercial music to this.

You can’t beat that kind of advertising!  

“I was driving down the road when my truck and I got tossed around by a tornado.  Almost made me late to dinner!”

1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Welp, looking at house about 4 miles northeast of parish sunday right by rt 104 about 1.5 miles east of 81

That sounds like it’s a few miles south of where we used to live.  Relatively nice area, affordable real estate.  Near sled and ATV trails. Be ready for mosquitos. 

In terms of snow, it seems like each mile east of 81 gains you some snowfall but significant snow retention.  

I worked outside on a shed into the darkness last night in pants and a long sleeve shirt.  Somewhere around 60 with setting sun when I started, mid-40s when I came inside.  I could get used to “no jacket” temps!

15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Even though I love the snow/winter I suffer a little from SAD. To combat this I go tanning once a week during the mid winter season. Yes I know its bad for me but I feel amazing when I walk out of there in mid winter. Also important to supplement vitamin D.

Imagine if we hated snow like many (most?) people.  I can’t understand why so many people live in upstate NY but hate snow.  Thankfully I get excited about snowstorms.  For me, it is exciting to track, exciting to watch it snow, and then it leads to long-term outdoor enjoyment following the actual snow event.  Now imagine dreading each snowfall and then being confined indoors until it melts.  I suppose that is a significant contributing factor to why so much of our upstate NY population is overweight. 

22 minutes ago, cny rider said:

Yesterday made me realize how grey and gloomy central NY can be.

We went skiing at Plattekill.  The clouds lifted out by 11.  It was a beautiful bluebird day.  

The skiing was great too.

We got home to central Otsego county.  My dark blue Subaru parked in a completely open area was still snow covered, as was our back walkway with direct southern sun exposure.

Both had the inch or so that had fallen the night before.

It's pretty obvious there was little or no sun here yesterday.

If I can't have snow I want sun!

I have been noticing this too.  It’s hard to blame essentially all of my friends who no longer live in the area.  Less job opportunities and more miserable weather here.  There are so many overcast days where it’s not really raining or snowing, but just gloomy.  That does take a toll on most people over time.  

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

For you snow depth weenies this pole is not fully pushed down it kept going and going. Here are my AllTrails stats for that hike 

I really enjoy your posts about big hikes like this.  Something I know I would love, but never had any friends into it, and current situation of wife/kids prevent me from bailing on them for a weekend anyway.  Maybe when my son gets just a little older we can start doing stuff like this.  
 

What do you eat while you are out on a hike like that?  Clif Bars? Kind? Just water or do you bring Gatorade or something for electrolytes? 

16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I can only look at those maps and laugh…the theme of the year continues. Those of us near the I-88 corridor fall JUST on the southern boundary of snow. Granted, the snow line will end up 50 miles north of there, but it’s amusing to see us shown on the fringe yet again.

7 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

No I just am not enjoying the snow the way I used to.  Full transparency is I loved to drink IPAs in the snow. I quit drinking nearly a year ago and it’s just not the same. That may sound sad but it’s my truth!  

The good news is I’ve lost 30 pounds, am completely ripped and can dunk a basketball again on a 10’ rim at 6’1” and 42 years old. 

And I’m as white as they come.  Actually, whiter. 

I’m a few years younger and working toward getting back into shape after a few down years with young kids.  So you’re telling me there’s a chance to return to the glory days….

We got a surprise 2.5-3” last night!  A nice refresher to an aging “sleetpack” for a few days. 

10 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Chased this over to Albany. I’d say we got maybe 6 inches but this storm is in a hurry to exit. I think accumulating snow could be done by 8 or 9am. No way we get 8-12 inches. So it’s nice but it underperformed. Figures.

Can I ask what you drive?  A silver Toyota RAV4 (I think) passed us on I88 yesterday evening with PA tags and a weather station on its roof and “storm chaser” license plate holder.  It was heading toward Albany. 

24 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

It's hard finding many people in society who aren't morons when it comes to understanding at least some of the science of meteorology. We weenies need our place.  

My wife and her co-teachers found a self-proclaimed weather guy who is a teacher in Binghamton on Facebook so now I have to explain to her all of the realities about what he is showing and/or talking about.  A recent comment like “cold air tends to hang on more than is forecast” proved his foolishness right before the rain/snow line for a storm went a solid 50 miles NW of the forecast.  I’m sure it applies in some places, but not here.  He also showed a nice snowy map for late next week, but I told her that there are plenty of comparable maps showing us on the warm side so he is playing the Weather Channel (i.e. media) game of baiting people to pay attention.  

14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

All the models locked in with storm just across the border. EURO is still the closest (other than Ukmet). IDK. Wouldn’t take a ton to move it 50 miles. Not counting on it though. 

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but the actually snow boundary usually ends up 25-50mi farther NW than the models and forecasts show it.  I have been burned by that a few times this winter.  Even though I “know” what’s going to happen, I still get my hopes up enough to be disappointed.  Not trying to be negative, just trying to spare you the same disappointment!

Washed the cars last night (as it was dropping below freezing which made it fun).  The thought was that we would have Sunday through Wednesday to stay nice and clean with cold temps and dry conditions.  Instead, it has been snowing all morning and the wife has to drive into town to bring our daughter to a bday party.  The one time I don’t want it to snow….

12 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Euro solution could yield ice invof LO and the SLRV. I'll take my rain over that shit lol.

Yeah, we lost a week of snowmobiling because of the ice we got last Friday.  Trees/branches are either bent to the ground or broken and laying on the ground.  We actually needed this warmer weather to melt that ice, as crazy as that sounds for a winter enthusiast to say in February…..

I’m feeling fortunate that we don’t have significant ice damage.  Could have been pretty bad, but the temp held at 32° most of the night and it was a pretty steady rain (vs. light mist) so it didn’t build up too much.  Still dealing with all sleet at 8:15am and 23°.  Half inch total frozen stuff on top of whatever is left of our original snowpack. 
 

Happy for the NW folks!  Seems like it’s been a good stretch of winter for y’all!

29 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

We're nearly all sleet here now too thankfully.

Looked like rain drops under the streetlight and couldn't hear the pinging over the TV and fire insert. But stepped outside and it's music to my ears.

You guys inspired me to go outside and listen to….the sound of rain drops and water running down the gutters.  Also noticed a huge puddle on our main front sidewalk, because it is dammed up by snow/ice banks and frost heaved soil on the sides, that will probably turn into a 1” thick sheet of glare ice by morning, so I’ve got that going for me….

27 minutes ago, cny rider said:

31F, dew 30F, rain here. Ice accreting on trees.

This is going to get ugly for someone if we don't flip to snow or sleet soon.

I’m thinking the same here. TWC hourly shows rain/mix until 5am when it flips to snow at 25°.  That will make +/-11 hours of freezing rain starting at 32° and dropping to 25°.
 

I’m doing things right now to get ahead in case we lose power tonight….which could last a while.  Thermostat is being bumped up a few degrees to “bank heat” right meow. 

Well I’m impressed with the models.  For days now, most models showed a brutal cutoff right along the I-88 corridor and that seems to be verifying.  It has been in the 30s all day and is currently 32° and raining.  Just brutal to have lost a lot of the snowpack today AND not have much hope of even getting back to where we started by the end of the storm.
 

I hope everyone N and W of me is enjoying it!  

5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Yeah, I see what you mean. At least there's some hope to cling to but im not liking the odds... least down here. I think you're in a better spot being more north than east from here.

Do you know what the location is near Sidney where many maps show a number?  Sidney airport?

53 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

0z hrrr precip is done by 18z Friday. Razor thin gradient here. I'm just west of the 8.5, right on tioga county line in the 10" shade. Can't ever remember a synoptic storm around here where totals could be 2-3x different over a several mile stretch.

I’m just SE of the 4.8 near Sidney.  Squarely in the 1” minus.  Super excited about that….

1 minute ago, CoolMikeWx said:

 

 

 

 

My warehouse sits on the same property as a small self-wash (bay wash) that the owner of the brewery brought back to life (he owns our building plus that building)

The last three days have been the busiest I've ever seen it in the last 4 months since I moved in there. I completely get it, I wash my car once a week regardless of weather (I did this once during 15 degree weather with a slight windchill and paid for it.. I almost couldn't get back into my car it was so frozen over.).


I'm tempted to pickup a pressure washer for the sleds and my car and the warehouse (floors + door etc)because everything needs a good wash.

Anyway end rant sorry lol.



Balmy 45 here in Middletown, patiently awaiting that massive rain to clean everything and then it looks like NYC office is predicting .10-.15 of ice for us. Fun times.

A thought on winter car washes…your geography makes a big difference. I occasionally wash my cars (at home) if we have several cold dry days upcoming where they won’t be filthy again immediately. However, if you live in Syracuse or south of Buffalo those consecutive days with no snow are few and far between.  If you live in Elmira, downstate, or even NE of the lakes, you are MUCH more likely to enjoy a clean car more often because you rely on synoptic storms and don’t get (seemingly) daily snow showers off the lakes.   

22 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Yeah you and me both. I'm not an expert, but if the model outputs are correct, I think we get more sleet vs freezing rain as it stands now. There seems to be a few hour window where the models are suggesting its predominently freezing rain and then it switches to sleet and eventually snow. During the window of freezing rain, the surface temps seem to be hovering around 30-32 which may limit the accretion to some extent. There a bunch of other factors that go into trying to accurately predict ice accretion too (dew point, pavement temps, precip rates etc).

Despite the warmer temps today, everything (ground, trees, etc) are about as frigid as they get around here.  Thankfully, there has to be a pretty unique set of parameters holding steady for many hours to create a dangerous ice storm (I.e. freezing rain vs. sleet) and that doesn't seem very common around here.  Maybe all the hills and valleys help mix the air unlike the broad sloping but generally “flat” St. Lawrence Valley?  I’m not really concerned about slippery ground - more about weight building up on trees and structures. 
 

I recall steady light rain at 18° during my senior year up in Potsdam.  Instant ice rink everywhere.  Thankfully it didn’t last long.