winter_rules

59 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

All models at one point or another show appreciable accumulation over the next ten days...i have a feeling BW is going to be awfully depressed for a month or two this spring...

Couldn’t that have been said on any given day all winter long?  I’m not trying to be a smart-ass but it seemed like the models consistently showed “wintry weather” being 4-10 days away all winter.  Then it would disappear almost every time.
 

Side note:  I tracked snow cover at my house Jan 1 to Feb 29 and we were white 88.x% of the days, but never had an honest 6in on the ground.  Seems very typical of recent winters.  

10 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

What was the snow depth between Turin and Lowville prior to the storm? Like 1-2ft depending on elevation?  Was thinking of doing some snowshoe/snowboarding on Sunday.  I wish that band was sitting about 10-20 miles south.  I think they've picked up about 20" so far including the synoptic event as snow ridge reported 18" total at 7am and the place I'm eyeing is 5 miles north.  Even more would be great.  If I do end up going I will setup my camera and tripod and get some good solo powder shots on video.  

You pretty much nailed everything.  Much less down along Rte 12.  Much more up on the hill.  It looks like a solid 18”+ of new snow on the hill through Friday morning. 

On Tug Hill between Turin and Constableville.  Taken By my brother about 11:00am today while the band is north of the area. 

14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The guy has Constableville and Inlet flipped.  Oops. 

37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Disappointed I didn’t listen to my friend. It’s time to go wagons north. I’m thinking I take 81 to Adams, then 11 north to Watertown. Won’t be an easy drive..

That main band is finally looking potent, and seems to be drifting north. Thoughts on that driving route from some of you locals?

As a former area resident, I suggest taking Route 11 the whole way, or at least get off I81 before you get into the heavy snow.  I think there’s a decent chance of I81 turning into a dangerous parking lot.  On Route 11 you can turn around or pull into a parking lot at any time.  On I81 you are stuck until you get to the next exit which could be hours away in this type of weather.  Keep your fuel tank full along with water, snacks, and blankets inside the car. 

29 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Now that was a shite winter. We had 2-3" of snow on May 18th 2002, around Albany and Cap District.   It was a SMH event as i had planted tomatoes and other sensitive veggies the day before (to stop my wife from bitching about it).  And they died...

I was a junior in high school and we had tents set up in a hayfield for after prom but the 4” or 5” of heavy wet snow destroyed all the tents!  Not to mention destroying the hopes of 16 and 17yr old boys after prom....

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

These weird white objects are falling from the sky. We've actually kept around 1-3" of snow here for the entire week. I know most areas around Buffalo haven't had snow on the ground but southern Erie has had 2-6" on the ground. The Village of Hamburg has 3-4". It felt like winter out there.

At 1,700FT in the NW Catskills, I have been generally estimating that 90% of our recent winters are white, but only 10% of the winter do we have 6”+ on the ground.  I finally started tracking it on January 1 and, even with this horrible weather pattern, we were white for 24 of 31 days in January (about 77.5%).  Never more than about 4” on the ground at any one time.  I’m hoping to keep up the record keeping and really see how it averages out over the years. 
 

To be clear, we live in a rural high elevation area known for snow.  Go a few miles North into the Susquehanna valley (Sidney, Oneonta, Binghamton) and it’s a whole different story.  

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah the GEFS show a Eastern ridge and western trough from Jan 9th to the end of the run. If we lose January you can pretty much guarantee below normal snow for winter. 

Is the mountain west having a great year?  It would be nice if the cause of our miserable weather is at least helping someone else out!!  

14 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Is anyone else feeling deflated by this pattern? Even if we get snow coming up, it's not going to stick around to enjoy it much. 

Yes, very discouraging pattern.  It is almost expected lately, though.  End of December into early January seems to be warm and rainy many recent years.  Our family has a few annual mini-vacations planned around birthdays and Jan 9th is looking questionable at best.  Luckily I have one bathroom torn apart with a second one soon to follow so at least this early November weather gives me more time work on those....

My brother reports 14” of new snow on top of a few inches of hard snow currently on the ground on the east side of Tug Hill.  -9° this morning! 

It has been a rare full week of classic winter weather in the Catskills.  Snow showers accumulating 1-3” every day on top of a decent (though underperforming in my particular location) initial storm and resulting snowpack.  Forecasted low of 10° last night but temp fell to -3° for at least two hours this morning.  We have friends coming over with their kids to play in the snow later today when it should be sunny and 30°....perfect winter weather for six kids who are 6yrs old or under!   
 

Then the meltdown commences.  This is the true theme of winter around these parts nowadays.  Build a decent snowpack over a few days, maybe a week, then wash it away in 24-48hrs.  Not complaining, just noting the reality of winter now.  We have to be ready to play as soon as it snows or we’ll miss the opportunity.  Just have to hope it falls near a weekend!
 

I hope everyone who has snow on the ground can get out and enjoy it today!  

All sleet with just enough snowflakes mixed in to keep me optimistic for an imminent change over....all day long.  Bottomed out at 12° last night and topped out at 28° today.  Down to 26° and light sleet ongoing at 4:45pm.  Patiently waiting for the transition back to snow but this warm air aloft seems fairly robust/persistent in our neck of the woods.  

We’ll see what the night/morning brings but I have to admit that several models did a pretty good job showing an area of lower snow accumulations extending northward just reaching into our area for at least the last two days.  We probably missed out on a solid 4-6” today if it had been all snow.  

5 hours ago, cny rider said:

Well the radar sure exploded right after I posted this brilliant comment.

Cooperstown crusher!

Anywhere from 2 inches on the wet spots in the yard, to 6 inches on the garbage pails.

 

 

Our total matches your description exactly, even the couple tree limbs down around the property! 

We’re not having the snow fun that you guys are, but our guys all commented about the swing in temperatures today in the Binghamton - Corning area.  It got warm mid-late morning and then by 1pm it had dropped 10°F with no discernible weather event (wind, more/less clouds, etc).  Interesting but worthless tidbit....

It’s looking like this next snow event will miss us in the northern Catskills, but for now it is a beautiful wintery morning in early November.  6° and about 1.5in of snow making for a classic winter scene outside.  Nearly full moon and clear skies last night made it look almost like daylight!  Kids are going to try sledding when it warms up a little bit.  For now we’re inside watching cartoons by the fire!  

20 minutes ago, cny rider said:

I'm with you for 10 months of the year.

Summer here, spectacular.

Fall is beautiful, doubt it could be better anywhere else.

Winter, I love the snow and snow sports.

But April and May, when everyone else is having spring and we're in cold mud season, sucks.  There's no way to put lipstick on pig of a day like yesterday.

 

 

I agree but I wish the winter season was more wintry.  Our property is white 90% of the winter, but having more than 6” of snow is probably only 10-20% of that time recently. Most of winter is white but not quite enough snow to ski, sled, snowmobile, snowshoe, etc.  Very frustrating.

I could deal with March 15 to May 15 much better if we didn’t have to deal with the same 35°-40° and rain/snow showers much of the previous 4 months.  

2 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Unless you like temps in the 30’s-40’s with frequent rain and clouds almost every day, WNY/CNY weather is abysmal. Absolutely abysmal. 

We just had that same conversation today.  If we really want to play in the snow all winter, we should move 2-3hrs north/northeast where it sticks around most of the winter.  Go 2-3hrs south and you only have to deal with occasional snow yet you get consistent warmth much earlier.  Generally speaking, the climate around the 42nd parallel east of the Mississippi seems to be a middle ground where we don’t get consistent snowpack AND we don’t get spring/summer until +/- Memorial Day which is basically the same as those places a few hours north/northeast.  Hmmm.....I wonder what job opportunities look like in mid-VT....

We received an automated call on our house phone about a tornado warning at about 1:45am.  Then our internet didn’t work so we couldn’t check the radar (no cell service and our internet works about 25% of the time so that wasn’t a shock).  Tried TWC but of course they were focused on their stupid reality shows.  Decided to take the kids to the basement for a while until the leading edge of the storms pushed through with nothing more than some wind, rain, and lightning.  We did lose power at about 2am and still didn’t have it back when my wife left for work.  Fun Monday morning....

I have been thinking the same thing about winter dragging through March much of this decade.  For snowmobilers, a later start and later end is actually good because most trails aren’t open until after hunting season (+/- Dec 20th depending on location/year to not irritate hunters who own much of the land we ride on).  If winter starts early we end up with more problems of people riding where they shouldn’t be and potentially causing property owners to revoke permission to use their land.  That isn’t a problem when there is good snowcover through March.  

Our pond has been frozen over since November 10th, so we are currently over 4.5 months straight.  Not sure if we’ll make it to 5 months but I’m still seriously impressed!  

1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

It’s wild here. The winds are absolutely nuts. Only the Lower mountain is open and man oh man is it cold with that wind.  Just took two shitty lifts then hiked but we found some knee to thigh deep stuff in the trees!  Also saw some great lenticular clouds.  Tomorrow will be absolutely amazing. 

Excellent reporting!  I love hearing from people who are out enjoying the snow.  Enjoy winter’s last hurrah!

Wife recently measured 6in at 1,700ft.  Still brown and rain in Binghamton. 

Nice +/-3in and counting of wet snow that is sticking to everything at 1,700ft in NW Delaware County.  School used another snow day which now takes a day from Spring Break because they have used all the snow days and contingency days for the year.   Brown and rain in Binghamton....just miserable down here.  

No blockbuster snows recently, but also no thaws for a few weeks.  It’s amazing what that can do to build a snowpack.  Mid-winter conditions on Tug Hill and into the Adirondacks for snowmobilers....which are significantly better than the conditions that actually occurred during “mid-winter.” 

-8°, -7°, -10°, -9° the last four mornings in the northern Catskills.  Pond has been frozen consistently since Nov 10th.  I’m curious to see how much longer it stays frozen....

5 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

It’s incredible how the microclimate works up there. I truly want to purchase a place that is: 1. On a lake big enough for speed boats 2. Near a small downhill ski place 3. In the BIG snow. 

I cant afford the grand old lakes like Saranac or Placid. Lake George is too expensive and gets less snow. 

I’m really considering Brantingham but it is a bit marginal from what I see. I don’t want to get into Matt’s situation where I’m constantly coveting snow just 15 miles away, you know?

the plan is to dump everything I’ve got into it, get a huge mortgage and then try and tread water by renting it out in summer and winter when I can to make the pymts. My buddy does this same thing with his place on BHam. His place is on water AND by the sled trails. 

Perhaps I’d ultimately be grateful to NOT be in one of those mega zones, as the snow removal and renter issues might be tough. Not many people are prepared to deal with over 12” at a time. 

Brantingham seems to get about half of what Carol gets. 200 vs her 350 or whatever. 

Brantingham doesn’t get the big totals that everyone seems to covet, but usually builds a pretty solid snowpack throughout the winter.  They don’t lose the snow as quickly/often as many areas outside of the Tug and Adirondacks.  Farther East it will just keep getting better. 

Also, you don’t really have to worry about being “on the trail” in Brantingham to rent to sledders because sleds run all those roads to get to the trail.  There is usually a nice layer of packed snow/ice on all those roads.  

36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just use these cams to pick out a good spot for snow depth. This place always has a few feet on the ground

http://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm

 

Yes, that’s a good spot.  That’s roughly the NW corner for the “deep snow depth on the Tug.”  Snow drops off dramatically North of NYS Rte 177 which is only +/-3 miles north of that cam.