Wx 24/7

It was a nasty overnight and early morning. Thankfully temps are creeping up. I was worried about this icing potential for several days. Was hoping it wouldn't materialize, but it did. After a massive arctic outbreak like we had, an overrunning event is always an issue. Thankfully temps stay above freezing for a while now. 

EURO, GFS, and CANADIAN have all latched on to some freezing rain Monday and Tuesday next week. The Canadian is obviously the most aggressive, but all three put out some significant numbers in some spots. I always worry when arctic air is retreating about a scenario like this. 

To watch two systems in a row fizzle right before my eyes is not unusual around these parts, but depressing nonetheless. Now that the system has trended south, it won't follow recent trends of moving north at the last minute and we will get the stupid cold with nothing white to show for it. 

Sung as Andy Williams... "It's the most lame weather time... of the year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

What storm? HAHA... The Charlie Brown season begins.

13 hours ago, lookingnorth said:

It looks like the most recent runs of the NAM and HRRR have cut back somewhat on the precipitation amounts for the OKC area tomorrow night.

Yep. What has been a trend too far south with the northern extent of precip the last few days now looks to have been a trend too far north with the main energy as it moves through. They are trending in the right direction for those north of I-40.  Thank you dry air! Don't want freezing rain. 

I think people need to watch late tomorrow into Thursday... especially in NW AR. Models have been terrible this week at catching these waves. Temps are waaaaay overdone in my opinion. Good setup for a surprise overperformance of ice accumulations. Would not want to be in Central AR for sure these next 24-36 hours. 

5 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Yeah, freezing drizzle events always seem to creep up and catch everyone off guard. Part of that I think is because they are hard to forecast, but also highly impactful, Mets play it safe by not sounding the alarm since models don’t pick up well. But I’ll be interested to see this play out. 
 

Huge messy forecast, not much agreement on models and just heavily leaving on the euro seems to be the play by everyone right now.

I have been really looking at the SREF and ARW means as a general middle of the road approach. If they are even close to correct, the forecast will be much icier than currently advertised this week. Not sure what to think. GFS seems out to lunch. 

1 hour ago, StormChazer said:

Awfully quiet in here with some icy weather potentially starting as early as tomorrow. 
I think Sunday might catch a lot of people off guard with freezing drizzle. 

I agree with this sentiment. I am a bit concerned about the potential, too. It seems to be one of those events where weather offices are more reactive than proactive. I guess we will see what happens in their afternoon forecast packages. Meanwhile, each of these waves of energy this week seem to be handled differently by each model. Looks messy in terms of forecasting for sure. 

The models seem to be all over the place in terms of timing and placement of waves of energy next week, along with precip type. What does look relatively consistent is that for most of us... whatever falls should be wintry. Lots to sort through this weekend. 

I measured 4", but compaction is definitely real. This is one of the most beautiful snows I have seen in a while though. It is causing lots of power outages, however. 

I am throwing the RGEM out. Who's with me? 

I definitely think MO and AR cash in because of the majority of this snow falling in the overnight hours. The models are really going gung-ho. I am trying to temper my expectations, but man... if Lucy moves the football at this point...

Also, don't look now, but next week looks like the arctic air is coming back... good signal for some light icing Sunday, too. One system at a time, I know...

1 hour ago, JoMo said:

Speaking of the Chiefs game. Whew, that was close at the end. 

That was more nerve wracking than model watching. 

Wait!!!! Where is the 20"+ snow the models were promising me two days ago? Oh that's right... back to reality we go. I wonder how many model maps have been posted on social media the last few days. I will be more interested once the system is fully sampled. Either way, looks like a decent snow for most of us unless there is a huge shift north or a small shift south.

3 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

I have a hard time buying a foot plus to the I-44 corridor with marginal temps like the GFS is trying to sell. It's trying to do produce 3 inches of snow here in SC KS tomorrow with temps of 34-37 degrees. 

That said, dynamic cooling is an equalizer. 

Snow depth maps would show 7" in the foot plus snow accumulation zones... so your comment is very valid. Snow output versus accumulation and depth are not the same in marginal situations like this may be. 

Definitely will be more excited by later in the weekend, if all trends hold (they rarely do)... but at least there is something to watch. 

At hour 8,982,336 there is a massive blizzard for the area... some 60+" of snow. I know it is that far out, but that's when winter will really start. 

(This is sarcasm... merely frustrated at how uneventful this winter has been. It is really going to have to be backloaded to live up to its hype.)

May be a quick burst of snow for some overnight tonight into tomorrow morning across Kansas and Missouri. 

It is really going to have to pick up in the second half of January and February or most of these long range forecasts were waaaay off. 

ZZZZZzzzzzz... that is all until mid-month I think.

One other note... GFS was waaaaay out to lunch on this system for our area. ICON seemed to handle it best from what I could tell. I am curious as to other fellow model watchers' thoughts?

Wound up with around 2.5" here I think. So hard to tell with the wind blowing around. Low overnight was -9. 

1 minute ago, JoMo said:

Springfield's morning AFD mentioned ratios of 16-17 to 1. 

That is good to know! I think STL mentioned 12 or 14:1 a couple of days ago. I like your ratio better.

Also... just FYI... Wichita Police Department already urging non-essential traffic due to freezing drizzle they are receiving now. Roads are very slick apparently and numerous crashes are being reported.