Yeah, the models shifted GHD I northwest a day or so before the storm.
Yup, I've noticed it too. Has happened with many systems. There tends to be a regression toward what the climate favors.
Consensus is growing for the first wave. The real question then becomes will the second wave be amped like the GFS or suppressed like the Euro. There is lots of potential for a massive storm as many have already said.
"Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ..."
vs
"Feb 1 -3 potential mess"
https://www.chestnutmtn.com/live-cameras/
The 0z HRRR still initialized too far north. It's already snowing near Galena, IL, the returns there aren't virga.
I've been lurking on sites like this since 2009. Excited for another winter season. Seems like it's been hard to get respectable Decembers in these parts for a long time.
Gonna roll with 0-1" IMBY right now due to the time of year and uncertainty over evolution. Could be wrong though, I've seen stranger. Might have to revise.