TheClimateChanger

14 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Can any confirm what is happening in the areas that are being identified as ZR?

Same as the other report from Beaver County. Sidewalk and driveway are just wet, but there is a very light glaze now accreting on elevated surfaces (tree branches, pine needles, etc.). I think our typical freezing rain setup is coming out of a deep freeze, where the rain arrives prior to temperatures warming above freezing. In this case, temperatures were in the 40s yesterday so road surfaces seem to be above freezing still. Probably would take a few more hours of below freezing temperatures to get any icing on paved surfaces.

This would be a historic storm in northeast Ohio. Wow.

6 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

I have to think they have had some since then (seems as though they have cashed in on a lot of our snow over the years)

But fair thought - our storms since that got close or over that (‘94, ‘96, ‘03, ‘10) were considerably lighter there. 

 

The 11.9 on 1/16-17 was the biggest storm since December 2010 at YNG airport. Still hasn't been a foot storm there since then. I don't know what was going on in December 2010 but they were reporting crazy, inflated snow totals. I don't recall any storms between 1993 and 2009 that would have reached 16" when I lived there. A foot was generally the top.

HRRR getting up into rarified territory for northeast Ohio. Nearly 16 inches at Canton, Akron and Youngstown. 17 inches in Cleveland. If that happens, would be the largest snowstorm in a long, long time for some areas.

HRRR is getting up into crazy territory in northeast Ohio. When was the last time Canton and Youngstown had 16 inches or more? March '93 Superstorm?

13 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Still rain in most of the county by 8 tomorrow on the HRRR. 
 

it literally looks like the front gets to western Allegheny county and stalls for nearly 12 hours.

I'm old enough to remember when some of the models were depicting that razor thin dropoff over Lake Erie (Canadian, ahem).

7 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I’m confused. PBZ adjusted both snow and ice in Allegheny County downward?

Looks like they are fine tuning some details. The warning still says 1-3 inches for entire PIT metro, but the zone area forecast for Butler shows 4-6 now, Beaver 3-5 & Allegheny 1-2.

Seems much colder than progged. The weather channel app insists it is 43 (45 when I was out earlier), but my car thermometer was reading 34-36 in some of the deeper, wooded and snow covered valleys and hollows and 39-41 on the hills. I would watch out for some icing in spots even tonight.

18Z HRRR would be a beast of a storm. Suspect these numbers are overdone.

5 minutes ago, donyewest said:

Yuck.  The text of the WSW means it isn't really being issued because of snow (no >6" in 12hr)... >0.25" of freezing rain then?

Yes. On the plus side, at least it's kind of a marginal warning. Doesn't look like they expect widespread 0.25"+ ice accretion given the range (0.1-0.3"), so there might be some isolated power issues but it doesn't look it's going to be a massive ice storm.

Let's hope the NWS forecasts pans out, and some of the higher modeled totals do not occur.

Curious as to what the NWS does as far as advisories and warnings. NWS CLE went with an advisory in its far SE counties, but the current forecasts call for around a quarter of inch or more of ice in parts of PBZ's warning area. Could see the advisory get sandwiched in between warnings, perhaps PBZ ends up going with an advisory in its northernmost east Ohio counties to kind of line up with that and then warnings further south where the more substantial ice is expected.

It looks probable that everywhere not in the watch will get a WWA for the possibility of a glaze to a tenth of an inch of icing. The current watch area is the wildcard. Probably warning level on snowfall for I-80 area, and for icing in parts of East Ohio, the West Virginia panhandle and possibly parts of SW PA. May be a zone of advisories in between where neither snow, nor ice would warrant a warning?

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Holy cow. And that's only until the morning of the 15th!

2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Just for fun at this point, but this is an incredible GFS run. Snowstorm, Arctic outbreak, rinse and repeat. We have 27” piled up through hour 300, parts of SW Ohio are pushing 4 feet.

Modeled snow depth at hour 300:

Parts of SW Ohio buried under 40" of snow. Yeah, I'm thinking that's not going to be happening. 

24 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Sleet bomb

Yeah, doesn't look like the snowfall map is particularly accurate for the RAP at 10:1. Kuchera is somewhat better. Changeover to all snow in Pittsburgh occurs around 0z Friday (Thursday evening) on that run and the 10:1 map already has 5.6 inches accumulated at that time. In reality, taking the simulated radar literally, would be like 0.5-1" of mostly sleet (probably mixed with some wet snow). But even so it does show nearly 7" of snow thereafter.

Not sure if the RAP is tracking the same storm as the other models, or if a weenie took over the controls?

Is the RAP even tracking the same storm as the other models? 

Gotta love the RAP.

Not bad. Full run says a foot at 10:1 ratio.

Note that neither of these maps would include any accumulated sleet that occurs. Also, they are Kuchera maps but they are almost identical (or even lower) for our region than the 10:1 maps, since the Kuchera ratio for this event would generally be around 10:1 due to the warm nose aloft.

The HRRR is also bringing decent totals in the northwest of the city:

RAP looks like a big hit. Looks like the short, range rapid refresh models have done a 180 on the storm.

18 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

I never put any stock into the 18z runs. Just wait for the 00z and we will see what we have.


.

I don't know. The GFS moved north a bit, but the European moved south. They actually seem quite similar now, although the European is drier in general. Here was the GFS 10:1 map for reference: