jwilson

Things appear to be trending eastward, so it's looking like an inch might be the high-end for Allegheny county. Probably best to avoid flooding concerns.

In the South Hills, we're the "victims" of another stabilizing outflow boundary. I've seen this with some regularity. It cools and flattens the air, and we end up with a tiny bit of wind but no storms. Collapses any inflow possibility. I guess we'll see if the line coming through later can reignite the atmosphere. Sorry for those of you north of the city that always seem to deal with these.

Certainly clashes with their hot August prediction. Would have to mean the latter half of the month is much warmer.

Too much cloud cover earlier meant the more favorable areas for development were further to the East, I think. Then when convection fired there, it sort of sucked all the energy out of our area and resulted in diverging/sinking air over us, which caps potential development. This is a pretty familiar course of events. Our hyped days are often undone by clouds or adjacent areas having better conditions and we get dry air otherwise.

Tomorrow a good chase day, then. Anyone chase around Pittsburgh? I imagine it's ... not fun.

Storm had mostly weakened by the time it hit here, nothing but a bit of wind and heavy rain. Looks like it reorganized to the East.

It will be interesting to see if the heat comes back, perhaps even worse, in July or August. The high temp outlooks in the near future seem to have shifted to the southeast, and there's no more sudden onset of the heatwave. There's some signs in the further long range (10 days), but I don't trust those at this lead time.

I know the air temps haven't hit particularly notable highs, but it definitely feels disgusting outside. I struggled to hit 3 miles and felt like I was dying. This is good watermelon weather.

Had a lightning strike right outside my window, but other than that not much in terms of thunder-weather. It was plenty humid today, though.

Thanks for all your work, ClimateChanger. Nice to see all that information accounted for. I kind of figured improvements in data collection and analysis would help account for apparent oddities in climate measurables. I know the NWS has their protocol and reasons for messaging a certain way, but I also think they should stay away from certain verbiage in long-term forecasting. Especially given the local microclimatolgy that seems to moderate with time. Geographically speaking, we don't really do extremes here.

I'm going to Vegas in July so this should be a good practice run.

Haven't lived in Pittsburgh forever, but for as long as I've been here, June has never felt appreciably "hot." Many times I've noticed it's relatively cool for the transition to summer. Either this portends a hot summer, as many predicted, or we even it out later with a cooling off during the summer spike. Anyone aware of how the wildfires factor in, if they are as relevant compared to last year?

1 for 6 on severe threats thus far. Aside from the other night when it was raining ice cubes, not much to speak of during these events, locally. Mostly outflow winds. There was definitely a tornado in eastern Ohio last night, however. Evident on radar and supposedly there was a brief video.

Tornado Watch to our south. I'm skeptical of anything that severe tonight, but something to keep an eye on if you're out or around the area.

Looks like Ohio is this spring's Tornado Alley. I feel like we tend to get our worst severe weather when it's not forecasted, so maybe this will bust. Something to keep an eye on, however, as TimB noted it's been a decade since we've had a "Moderate" risk locally.

Vernal equinox being tomorrow night, winter will "officially" close.

Interesting to see how next week goes in terms of temps. Strong divergence between Euro and GFS. Former wants us back into the 60s by Tuesday while the GFS likes a more extended period of cooler weather. Looks like March 18th our average highs hit 50 and then 60 by April 9th. Sorry, no snow to speak of so for now the talk is mostly boring unless we can pop some T-storms again.

I think we had more storms over the last couple days than we did all of last summer.

Not much winter to forecast. The ensembles all show a warmer pattern after this coming weekend when we get a cold shot, but it looks like any snow talks are on hold for a while. The GEFS is the exception for now which shows a little possible something on March 2nd when we get a transient ridge in a near ideal position. But it is on its own. The EPS and GEPS are both showing a strong warm look, nearly full latitude ridge at that time. I guess if you roll the pattern forward, mid-March is a possibility for something? Hard to get overly excited at this point. March is always a wild card, of course, but for me it's something historical like 1993 or let's just move on to spring. Five-and-dimes aren't as effective or interesting after February. In December? Sure.

I drove through that death band in the city. 279 from the north was completely covered and I passed one vehicle that had clearly spun around. It was snowing so hard snow was accumulating on my hood while I was driving. Massive dinner plate flakes. Once I got beyond the Liberty tunnel you could see the subsidence. Much worse dendrite growth and 19 in the South Hills was mostly just wet, excepting a few spots. The snow started getting a bit heavier in Bethel beyond Mt. Lebo.

NWS pretty bullish on their call. There is going to be a narrow band of winners somewhere between Allegheny and Morgantown. Problem is if you're outside that maxima band, you're probably dealing with subsidence and bad dendrite growth. Pretty much all the latest mesos keep that band in Greene and Washington counties. It will be interesting to nowcast that and see where it falls. I thought the soundings weren't that great looking into Allegheny even yesterday in terms of maximizing potential, but I don't know how reliable those are from the mesos.

On all the ensembles, there's another Omega block look setting up for next weekend, except with the ridge potentially positioned further west. I had highlighted this period in the past because the ensembles had pretty classic East Coast snowstorm looks before. Now that look is not at all the same, but it could still setup into something interesting. The operationals show nothing but that's irrelevant right now. Remember that the last time that omega block happened, we had a pretty major storm, it just missed us by a few hundred miles and buried other places in feet of snow. It's quite possible this is our last chance before March torches, so I'm going to enjoy tracking this even if it amounts to nothing.

Congrats on the win! We went from rain to snow to heavy snow to mix to flurries to high clouds in the matter of 48 hours out here in Pittsburgh. I'd ask my mom to measure (Hatboro), but I'd prefer she doesn't slip in the conditions.

I was obsessed with the original when I was 10 - went to see it in the theater at least three times and then burned through a VHS copy. A big reason I got into tornadoes and weather was because of that movie. Obviously the science doesn't hold up at all, and I imagine this sequel won't be any better in that regard, but it's a trip.

It does depend a bit on which model you followed. The Canadian and Ukie both picked up on the southern solution earlier, starting Thursday into Friday. Thursday at 0Z was the last run the CMC showed a really amped northern push. The problem is forecasters, myself included, don't put as much stock in those compared to the GFS and Euro, and those two were still showing a bigger spread into Sunday. It's a bad performance, but the GFS has been quite bad this winter, overall. There's always those occasions where certain models score an unexpected win. Back in 2016, for example, even the NAM scored a win, and that's quite rare.