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Everything posted by jwilson
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Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Always the danger in these setups is the dry slot or the too far north movement that brings rain into the equation. Even the folks in D.C. should remain skeptical for now. The last couple systems have trended south quickly and it is possible this one keeps moving south, as well, and isn't locked into its location yet. Either way, I don't anticipate this being a PA special. Maybe points SE and Philly get a moderate snowfall as the low gains latitude. I'll watch for changes, but this setup doesn't excite me. -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Seems to be picking up on a trend with the models of a Miller B next Sunday-Tuesday. Not a typically great setup for our area. Our totals will depend on the timing issue and how vigorous the primary low is before transfer. The storm back in December was more of a hybrid system while this one looks like a pure B event, which are great for coastal regions but tricky elsewhere. I would cap expectations (for now) at 4-8" tops. Not a bad event, but not particularly notable, either. -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Well, the December honeymoon sure ended quickly. We have a theoretically decent pattern, but the general atmospheric conditions are not poised for snow storms along the east coast. Comes down to a couple different factors, but it seems like the snowy conditions were relegated to Europe and Asia where the PV has hung out most of the winter. Of course, Ninas are typically more dry for us, anyway. I guess we'll see if February changes anything or if snow shows up as we transition to spring and more moisture. -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I see two main systems right now: Monday/Tuesday and then Thursday/Friday. Next weekend perhaps has the most potential, but what's depicted on the Euro would look a lot better if it dug and made a turn up the coast. Instead, it just ejects due east. We don't do poorly, though it feels like wasted potential. If the confluence is the issue, then we'll have to wait for it to relax and hope we can time a storm appropriately. There's something else behind that, too, Sunday/Monday (31-1st) but it's too far out and has other pieces in front to know how it will interact. Late January storms are somewhat rare, for whatever reason. Maybe this February won't be like a typical Nina and we get a refresh to re-open the big storm window. -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Historical analysis over thirty years - 2005-'06 was the last lean year after a strong December showing: 5.5" in January, 9.7" in February, and 1.4" in March. Most of the time with an above-average December we get at least one more above-average month, but two or even three is much more common. There's a 27-31% chance, give or take, we end winter on a down note and "below normal." If January busts out (below average and/or less than December), our odds increase to a ~67% chance for a below normal rest of winter. The most unusual exception was 1992-'93 - I think we can all see the relevance of that year. January brought only 2.1", but February and March combined for over 52" (18.5" and 34.1" respectively). -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Snow on top of snow is the best kind, IMHO. I love the ambience of it. -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
10.5" storm total here, measured at 3 AM (when the snow was officially over). I was at 9.8 before the final couple bands pushed it over the top. The Euro is a winner here, along with the HREFs (the only short-term model that had us in the 10-12" range in that final 24-hour period). The GFS was awful for this storm, perhaps unsurprisingly. Too many mesoscale features for it to handle. The NAM waffled too much. It was correct on a couple runs, I suppose. Now enjoy the snow gifs. Most were taken at the height of the storm where we briefly touched 4"/hr rates. -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I'm up to 6.25" of snow here. We legit hit 4"/hr rates in that mega band not long ago. While I was on my "Jebwalk," I measured an inch in 15 minutes at peak. Too bad it didn't last longer. -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I'm going to be Ross in a minute yelling at those returns just to my west to PIVOT. -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Thank you! Current obs: stuck in an area of subsidence. Feel like we've been here for a while now and that will cut totals down. -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I think it is in the process of doing that now, but on that note, does anyone know of a good site for real-time surface and upper-air maps? I can't seem to find one. -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
You can kind of see the size of the flakes in that band. Huge growth. Must be near max lift in the DGZ. https://i.imgur.com/zY1qXFE.mp4 -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Border of Mt. Lebo/USC -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Ripping hard right now. This band is fantastic. SN+ -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Looks like some dry air is penetrating from the west/southwest. Perhaps we have a lull until the coastal starts cranking. -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I'm seeing some 35-40 DBZ returns to our south in Greene county. Is that sleet or an intense band of snow? -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Approaching moderate snow here. The growth itself isn't terrible, but I'd place it as a little less than optimal. -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Comparing it to some of the model runs yesterday ... the low location is basically right on off the SC coast, and that's accurate for the time frame, but the precip shield was grossly undermodeled, especially on the western side, but also throughout the entire "snow" region of the precip. That could be good news. Maybe we get an overperformance here. We'll have to see how the banding sets up later. -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yeah the storm is about 2-3 hours ahead of schedule, at least according to most mesoscale models. -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Entering the first - and hopefully last - dry slot of the day. Rates dropped off significantly. That first round put down a light coating on most surfaces. -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Definitely snowing here now in the South Hills. A consistent rate but still quite light. -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I'm checking the cams here: http://wv511.org/#MapPlace:-80.146723587035:39.608696977762:-79.817133743284:39.711115431707 It looks like it is actually starting to snow now. -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
As for nowcasting time, I do see some 30 DBZ returns to our south already, which would be pretty far ahead of schedule. I'm trying to see if it's actually snowing in Morgantown, but it doesn't look like it yet. I'm guessing we're still in virga territory. Edit - ah I do see a few flakes in downtown. Perhaps it has started. -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I can understand that. It is unfortunate. Big storms are too rare for Pittsburgh. However, for some hope today, the HREFs still have a 30% chance of more than a foot, and the ensemble mean remains between 10-12" across most of Allegheny. I think it might be crazy, but at least there's a tiny bit of guidance that still looks like the 12Z NAM from yesterday. -
Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️
jwilson replied to north pgh's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yeah kind of a strange result from the NWS to up my totals overnight. That seems to go against the grain of the model trends with a less moisture-laden system. It was 4-8" when I went to bed and 6-9" now. I like the 4-8" call and think that was adequate. I think somewhere between 4-6" is the most likely result for the majority of our sub, exclusions to our eastern-most residents that could get more. Still a slight chance we hit higher end totals if we get the banding right, I'm just less confident in that now. Also strange to see the GFS so far apart from most every other model still. While it's a relative disappoint to what could have been, I think everyone here would have signed up for two 3"+ storms before Christmas, especially knowing it was a Nina.