CentralNJSnowman

Honestly, I'm not that knowledgeable so mostly relying on the many mets in the various subforums here who have been honking about the potential for something big in this time period That said, I do understand forecasting/analysis (in general, not specifically for weather) and there's a big difference between ensembles averaging 3" because they have 25% of solutions at 12" and 75% (all or none) at 0" vs. average 3" because 75% of solutions have 4" and 25% at 0" (2-4/3-6 storm). My impression is that they've been closer to the former for this storm. Anytime you're looking at an aggregation of solutions, the distribution is going to include a lot of information that gets obscured if you just look at the average. All that said, I do agree with you that we're not really going to know what's going on here until later in the week.

TONS of people have been talking about this as a potential HECS. Doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, but 2-4/3-6 is actually pretty unlikely with this one. If it hits, it’s probably a big one, unless you’re in the relatively small ‘just missed’ area.

I haven't seen the ukie, but given how far out we still are, that GFS is close enough that I'd view it as somewhat supportive of what we're looking for

Wait...is that storm total or just for the 6 hour period?

Heavy sleet, but back to some snow-ish looking stuff mixing in for the past little while

I’m in Monroe too (Kind of central Monroe, by route 522). Pretty much all sleet here now. Can’t complain, even if this is it for the snow.

My WSW now says that between 2-8 more inches will fall. That sounds about right.

WSW is showing 7-13 for me. That’s still very aggressive, but much more reasonable than what they had yesterday. I’ll be very happy if we manage 7 or 8.

GFS still better than other models. Particularly in southern half of NJ where it drops a lot of precip.

Yeah, I actually deleted my post. It WAS progressing identically through about 18z Sunday or slightly later, and then was substantially worse after that.

Yeah, I assume that this is why they often overdo snow amounts and are slow to reduce amounts And I get that they have a tough job to do with a lot of people tending to ignore taking precautions That said, I think if you consistently overdo things, everyone learns to ignore you. You kind of need to give people credit for being able to understand some nuance...even if a lot of people may or may not be capable of it. Ultimately your job is to tell the truth...not try to trick people into complying

Winter Storm Watch still has me in 12-17 inches. Other than the GFS, basically nothing has shown that in the past couple of days...models show maybe 6-12 if you trust Kuchera, 4-10 if you don't FWIW, I don't think that's COMPLETELY impossible, but 12 has to be something like 85th-90th percentile for me and 17 is like 98th percentile

Canadian doesn't seem to have the nasty cutoff that's showing on other models

Haha - yeah. I'm actually substantially west of the Parkway, but far enough South that we sometimes (although not quite as often) suffer from some pretty brutal cutoffs

It's not from just one storm - it's happened many, many times over multiple decades in Central NJ. When the mix line or changeover stays south, we often jackpot. But it's very common for us to get 4-6 inches less than from the southern and far eastern portions of Middlesex County to the northern and and further inland portions

Really sharp cutoff on the NAM from about 14 inches to 7 inches (Kuchera) right around my house. Not too concerned about that at the moment...guessing that will move one way or the other, and that the cutoff line isn't likely to be as stationary as the NAM depicts it, so that there's likely to be more gradually decreasing totals.

Would be cool if Mt Holly’s maps didn’t show way more snow than their discussion implies

Brilliant strategy. Mt. Holly issues two completely different forecasts, so they're covered no matter what. If we get 6 inches, then this one is accurate. If we get 15", then the other one is accurate.

Seems that way to me too. Often seems like they're one cycle behind the models.

Seems reasonable. I'm in Monroe (maybe 10-15 miles northwest of you) and my best guess for my backyard is currently 6-9...although still wouldn't be surprised by substantial changes in either direction

I think it also attempts to adjust for model biases. That has to be the reason why the blend is currently higher than any of the models that it’s blending. there was a slightly confusing post in the mid Atlantic sub forum that suggested that a few recent high ratio storms that were positive busts account for the strong positive adjustment that it’s clearly making here

For the Euro, are you saying that of the 1.1, 7.7 inches should be snow and the rest would be sleet + freezing rain? Or would the 7.7 include snow + sleet?

That would be a fair criticism if he was telling us what he thought was most likely to happen. But that's not what he posted about...he posted about the possibility of how the storm could underperform...so it makes sense that he'd cite the models that give us reason for concern.

Not sure why everyone is on eduggs' case. He's not saying we won't have a big storm. He's giving concrete reasons why there are concerns that the storm MIGHT not meet high end expectations. That's doesn't seem especially controversial. Even his statement that at four days, the low end up possibility is 0" shouldn't be especially controversial. It's unlikely, but we've seen it happen before.

I think the guy who people refer to as Yanksfan was actually Yanksfan23 or something