magpiemaniac

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

WPC not enthralled with the western tracks

NHC’s 11:00 AM cone shifted just a tad to the west compared to the previous update.  It gives the Triangle area a chance for some rain.  The 12z GFS did move west again, too, but I’ll remain skeptical at this point.

My downstairs HVAC is acting up which makes me immediately long for cooler fall temps. At least upstairs is fine.

It’s always something.

13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Our only hope is Elsa trending west. Piedmont folks may get some but western piedmont and foothills looks dry the next few weeks other than pop up storms. And that is a model consensus.

Interestingly, the latest GFS and Euro have Elsa tracking along a more western path than the NHC guidance.  They must know something I don’t, but they do it for a living and I’m a lowly member of a weather board.  

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

I disagree. Looks pretty dry to me.

True.  Other than the coastal plain, much of the upstate, foothills, and piedmont look dry.  Same song; second verse.

I’m thankful for Friday’s rain.  I just wish we didn’t have to go weeks between such events.

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

 I know Elsa is struggling and likely to continue to do so while dealing with shear, forward speed, and land issues, but most models do show some impact for the Carolinas. At a minimum it looks like some good rains for the area, but some models like the Canadian actually reform the center east of Florida and bring a strengthening tropical system ashore in the Carolinas. Something to watch at least 

My wife and daughter got the bright idea to run down to Myrtle Beach for a quick trip from this coming Wednesday to Friday.  Not the best timing.  I tried to tell her to check the forecast, but when she booked it, she said the NHC cone stopped in Georgia.    (She’s a CPA and not much of a weather junkie.)

I’m not sure what they’d run into driving down Wednesday afternoon and coming back Friday morning.  It looks to be a fast moving system regardless. Some models showed a weakening system and clearing out for a decent Thursday at the beach.  Other models showed some trouble.  She can cancel, but needs to do so by late today to get a full refund.

4 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It looks like each person can get 50 points awarded to them from others each day. Mods/admin can give unlimited points per day and take away. There are so many points between each icon that you have to get in order to get to the next level. The amount of points needed goes up each level too.

That’s all I got

For eleven years on this site, I’ve done nothing but complain about lackluster winters (and lately a relatively dry summer) only to be demoted to newbie?  Thanks for nothing.  

5 hours ago, yotaman said:

.19" today was it. Just light rain now. Main line dissolved as it got close to me and new line formed just to my east. My luck ran out for now.

I watched that line approach your area on the radar.  Crazy how it faded so quickly right at the New Bern city limits.  I’ve had my share of that.  Very frustrating.

Just now, wncsnow said:

Ended up with .54. I will take it but was really hoping for over an inch. Looks to be dry for at least 4 or 5 days. 

Good to hear that you got something.  My reverse psychology worked on this system.  I kept poopooing it until it relented and gave me a lot of rain.  LOL  It finally started raining around 10:35 PM last night and ended around 8:00 AM with a half hour break around 2:30 AM.  I’m at 2.84”.  Best rain I’ve had in ages.  Some stations over in NE Forsyth had 5” to 6”.

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

.13 so far and still sprinkling #winning

Congratulations.  Glad someone is getting something.  I’m at 0.00”, the latest HRRR run gives me a pleasant mist, and RAH is dropping their point forecast estimate like a rock.  Tomorrow’s forecast goes from 90% (2.00”) to 60% (0.25”).

Un-freakin’-real that I can’t get anything from this setup.  Still sitting at 0.69” over the last three weeks.

High of 90.5 today.  July picking up where June left off: bone dry.  Absolutely giddy with excitement anticipating the 0.01” of rain I’m expecting by tomorrow evening.

3 minutes ago, jburns said:

Careful.  You don’t want to became a Charles (Charley) Havlat.

More like Charlton Heston in Omega Man.  

On 6/26/2021 at 7:00 PM, yotaman said:

Got my 1st shot Thursday and my shoulder has hurt like hell ever since. Wakes me up every time I turn on it. Still tender to the touch today. My wife's shoulder hurt a little on Friday and but is fine now.

My wife has had bad headaches and neck stiffness ever since her second Pfizer shot and my brother-in-law developed heart inflammation.  I’m waiting until Novavax releases their shot based on more traditional technology.  I’m not really enthusiastic about being a guinea pig.  

29 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Meh; 3 plus years of constant monsoon - this a blip I'm happy for. Still just over 3 inches for the month, and over 30 for the year, which is still above avg for mby.

I get it, but my 2021 garden doesn’t remember 2019 monsoons.  

18 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm right on the edge of the darkest shade of brown in WNC 

These precipitation trends need to change by winter.  If these were seasonal snow maps instead of rain, I’d go bonkers. 

15 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

That little white dot in the middle of all the brown is mby. It’s feast or famine around the south, but thank gawd it’s not as bad as the west is currently  

Misery loves company.  My house is under the arrow.  The brown dot matches the color of my grass.

But you’re right.  At least we’re not too worried about wildfires.

1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said:

GSP is giving me about the same for Friday. mby shares your shield    

For weeks now, I’ve been used to storms coming from the southwest and dropping the most intense rain to my west and east.  I’ve been in a dry corridor.  I assumed that since this week’s front is approaching from the northwest there’s no way I could miss out on a good soaking rain.  But the models are hinting otherwise.  Most of the intense rain will form to my east after the front passes.  I’ll end up with a 0.20” light shower of Friday while the Triangle will end up with 2.20”.  You might think I’m joking, but just wait and see.  

The updated 30-day and 60-day precipitation map shows how dry the western areas of NC and SC have been compared to the east.

21 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Anyone else noticed the lack of thunderstorms this year so far? I think we have had 3 or 4 decent storms all year. Normally it's an every evening deal this time of year here near the Blue Ridge. 

You’re right.  It’s been quite.  I went back and looked at logs and counted four thunderstorms (as determined by nearby lightning) here at the house since the beginning of the year.

RAH forecasts 1.3” of rain IMBY from Thursday afternoon to early Saturday morning.  I’m definitely taking the under on that one.  Last couple of Euro runs maintain the anti-precipitation shield over my house.

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Every now and then you get lucky
Edit: Ended with an unexpected 0.18” today, up to 6.21” for June

Lucky?  You’ve been crushing it this month.  

I’m more likely to find tuna fish in a Subway sandwich than to get a decent rain here lately.  I’ve not had a good soaking rain since June 11 and May 3 before that.

22 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Ended up yesterday with .81" which put me at 9.03" for the month. Very humid out there today. Currently 83/77.

9.03” for June?  That’s insane.  IMBY, I have to add up daily totals all the back to April 10 to break the 9” mark.

Every model shows the trend I’m talking about.   I could see it at the micro level with storm after storm passing to my NW and SE, but then you confirm it on precipitation maps and see the models.  It’s pretty frustrating.  You’d think just one good system could bring the bulk of precipitation up I-85 at some point.

Possible high tomorrow in Portland, OR of 110.  And I’m dying when it’s 93 here.

Areas in NC east of US Route 1 have been cashing in on rain for several weeks now.  You can see that in the last month of rainfall.

It looks like the models are going to maintain the trend, too.  The I-85/Hwy 29 corridor might remain substantially drier than eastern NC and the mountains for the foreseeable future.

A beautiful 71 degree day.  Looks to be the last unseasonably cooler day before some heats sets in.

I’m now at 4.20” for the month and have hit June’s historical average.  Hooray!  Believe it or not, 63% of this month’s rain fell within a 45 hour period on June 10 and 11.