magpiemaniac

NAM and HRRR give me a chance of seeing a little rain later today.  Fingers crossed.

BRB, guys.  Gotta go mow the lawn.

59 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Another day, another nada

I had a cell that looked promising pop up this afternoon.  As expected, it fizzled out.  LOL.

Short-range, medium-range, and long-range all look terrible.  It wouldn’t surprise me if we don’t slip into the next drought category by next week.

1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Me too     Hearing the thunder all the time, just makes it worse    

If thunder alone grew grass, my lawn would look like Augusta National.  Unfortunately, it takes water.

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Ouch 

The updated map gets worse.  The rainless patch I’m in is less than a mile wide.

I’m at 0.00” today.

Oh, come on!    Measurements of 0.50”, 1.00”, 2.00” all around me today and ZERO here.

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Ended up with .12 yesterday evening after a big storm missed about 5 miles to the north.  

Does that put you at 0.77” for July so far?  With Elsa being a bust here, I’ve only had 0.37” in the last nine days and the models continue to look grim.  Oh, well.

Our garden has been great this season.  We’ve had to water it more due to long stretches without rain, but we have cucumbers, zucchini, and peppers coming out the wazoo.

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Yea we didn't get much from the front the first of the month and 0 from Elsa. Pop up storms usually get us quite often but the pattern has not been favorable this year. What's crazy is my job in west Asheville (one of the driest areas in NC) is having a wetter summer than MBY along the escarpment in McDowell. Very very rare. 

Bad news is August can be one of the driest months of the year especially if no tropical activity. I feel like it's going to take a tropical system in the Gulf to save us from growing drought in WNC. 

Speaking of bad news, the high-res is a poop show for central NC through early Tuesday.  Rain to my east (of course) and rain to my west.  And 0.00” here.  It’s tough going two or three weeks without a drop and when you do get a little something, it’s too dry to soak in.

53 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Big storm blowing up! High winds some pea size hail and torrential rainfall. 

What is this “rainfall” of which you speak?  What sorcery is this? 

22 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Nothing yesterday at the house, cells missed us to the southwest and northeast. Only .65 for the month so far. 

According to the latest drought monitor report, 49.98% of NC is abnormally dry or in a moderate drought and it’s mostly the foothills and piedmont.  The coastal plain has become our new tropical rainforest.  The rain from Elsa (as evidenced from the seven-day total map) made the gap in rainfall between east and west even wider.  At some point, our luck has to change.

Just 0.65” for the month is astonishing.  I should count my blessings for the one good soaker I had on July 2.

I had two mean looking storm cells approach me from the northwest at different times this afternoon only to fizzle out at my neighbor’s house.    Exactly 0.00” of rain today.

1 hour ago, yotaman said:

You are doing much better than me. I am at .60" for the month. A far cry from last month.

It’s either feast or famine.  I didn’t realize y’all were that dry this month.

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

They did a good job, choosing the east side of guidance. Consensus of the models was for about 2-2.5"

I would have taken half of RAH’s forecast.  LOL

I’m both grateful for and underwhelmed by the 0.37” of rain that I received today.  RAH called for about 1.6” here based on the consensus of the modeling for most of yesterday.  Not even close.  This one went wide right…or east in this case.

My July total is now at 3.23” with almost all of that coming on the 1st and 2nd.

This thing is trucking through faster than a jackrabbit on a date.  I’m only at 0.35” so far and not convinced I’ll get much more unless some wraparound rain happens.

The moderate rain started about 9:20 this morning.  I’m at 0.14” so far.  I like days like this, but I’m strange that way.

55 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Somehow all the tropical showers have avoided MBY. Only a trace so far 

The season is young. There will be more opportunities.  And don’t count out some stray cells coming in from the west tonight.  You might pick up a couple of tenths.

Both the 18z GFS and HRRR give me 3.0”.  The 18z NAM gives me 0.3”.    LOL  I’ll split the difference and be happy.

7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Haha, and I expect them to be right too! We've found so many creative ways of having boring weather around here lately

If I don’t see a big red L in the sky just east of my house tomorrow afternoon, I’ll be gutted.  We’ve had different types of Ls lately with long dry spells and busted forecasts.  I’m excited to (maybe) see some interesting weather.

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Some of the guidance actually brings the heaviest rain west of Raleigh now, your way. Looks like a good soaker for much of the Piedmont 

The 11:00 AM cone definitely took a westward shift to the west compared to 8:00 AM.  Still expect RAH to ignore the models and NHC guidance and forecast 0.1” of light rain for me.  j/k

33 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I love following tropical weather 

True.  Second only to snow.  

2 minutes ago, Avdave said:

On Social media, the outlets seem now to know which way to go.   Some say the heavier rain is east of 95 and some say it is west of Durham and out towards the Triad and Charlotte. 

For rain, I’m liking the model trends.  I might actually have a chance for 1”.

15 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow! Had no idea ozone was something you could actually smell! Is it only after tropical systems?

You can buy an ozone machine to neutralize odors, e.g., fire, pets, tobacco.  You have to leave while it’s on though.  It’s strong and not good to inhale.

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’d be shocked if the triangle missed out on rain from this system given the track and angle of approach with an approaching trough that usually pulls moisture a bit north as the system interacts with it. Models have really not shown that but from experience that usually happens with tropical systems hitting the gulf coast and moving through our area, and the rain shield almost always ends up further north and west than forecast due to that interaction 

The 5:00 PM cone shifted slightly to the west again.