SolidIcewx

DTW area I think dodged a bullet. A little better atmosphere dynamic and those storms would have taken off

Cell in Wayne county looking pretty supercellular now. Wish I was home to see it. Hopefully it don’t tighten up anymore or the metro is in some trouble

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 230 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 .DISCUSSION... Moderate instability has built up, with 18z SPC mesoscale analysis indicating 1500 J/kg of MLcape and 2500+ J/kg. Jet streak/40+ knots of 0-6 KM bulk shear aligned over/around I-94 corridor, presenting the elevated concern for severe storms, as the Lake Michigan shadow push has begun and some activity is attempting to go up. Will need to be leery of the backed flow near Lake Erie to increase low level shear and lead to potential rotation. Some enhanced low level convergence and enough 0-1 km bulk shear (up to 15 knots) over the Thumb region to allow for rotation and more organized activity as well, with possible tornadoes indicated. Once the scattered strong-severe storms/surface based activity dwindles early this evening, still a muddled forecast for tonight into Saturday, as 12z hires solutions are all over the place with convection, or lack there of if you believe certain solutions. Unfortunately, with the amount of upper level shortwaves seen on the water vapory imagery tracking through northern Plains/Midwest, it is not surprising and difficult to latch on to the main/dominant player as we work through the diurnal cycle. Ultimately, with moderate southwest low level winds and solid negative showalter index values persisting, will lean toward the redevelopment of convection tonight within the backdrop of upper level ridge building into between the Central/Eastern Great Lakes region toward Saturday morning, as shortwave energy/lead PV advection tracks in from the western Ohio Valley. With 700 MB dew pts rising into the low-mid single numbers, excessive/heavy rainfall becomes an increasing concern as we head into Saturday as well. 12z Regional GEM seems to have the general flavor of the forecast for tonight and tomorrow. With the morning shower/thunderstorm activity slow to exit, anticipating afternoon instability to be low, with mlcapes generally under 1000 J/kg, which is a good thing as wind shear appears to be moderate, with 35+ knots of 0-6 km bulk shear to work with. Day 2 out of SPC has dropped the marginal risk of severe storms for bulk of southeast Michigan, which is fine as long as that morning activity verifies.

Rotation in southern Livingston county. Going towards not far from where I live

What the hell is going on in the thumb?? Hour ago nothing and no watch

Good news is that rain is going into Quebec so hopefully will help with the fires out there

Getting saucy

Pretty sure your under that Nader watch right? Going to be interesting for y’all tonight. If I didn’t work early I’d blast the 120 miles home

Tornado watch for southern Michigan

Let’s see if anything happens in N Indiana and SW Michigan

That was a hell of a storm. Very loud too from what I remember

@frostfernyou look to be in for a soaker soon

Classic hook

Twin tornados by Elgin Illinois

Or was delayed until this morning/afternoon and have it rip through the sub forum

Outflow boundary from last nights MCS reaching Mississippi now

I would definitely promote getting your ass down here if you had the time lol

That definitely sounds plausible for me as well. Might shoot over to N Indiana or stay out since I’m at the eastern edge of that risk

Que mark Zuckerberg

Your either a cooked or a frozen depending on the time of year in this sub

Sunny here where I am in NW Ohio. Wonder if the MCS will get reinvigorated later if the sun stays out

Same here I hope the training don’t setup around DTW we have had our fair share of BS. Even Canton flooded back in 2021. Working in Detroit recently from the rains we had a week ago some side streets were flooded just from that alone

Looks like possible training events tonight that I get to miss. Storms down here this morning split to my north and south only has some mood drops

Yes the day after I leave too haha. Hopefully get tagged here I’ll go out to the corn fields to get good views at night if I have too. Will be home on the weekends so hopefully Mother Nature don’t do a tit for tat on me. I’ll make sure I try to get some good pictures as well due to the distances I can see now during the week.