MJO812

Euro crushes coastal SNE

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs is wrong. I expect something like the euro guidance. Basically this won’t be all snow locally.

Euro has been awful this winter. Can't take it seriously at all.

Upton has 2 inches of snow for the NYC area tomorrow night into Saturday

The stronger the system is on Saturday the better for Monday

18 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Amped but way Southeast, we need it to be more northwest to help the next storm track further south. 

It's been trending northwest on the models

19 minutes ago, David-LI said:

What big storm? Monday’s rain storm?

Saturday event

Nam keeps amping up the wave before the big storm.

Some snow on the euro tomorrow and Saturday

A little snow tonight , tomorrow night and a possibly bigger storm on Monday. 

Euro has a few snow events to watch moving forward.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Couple more threats day 8 and day 10 too. Hopefully GFS is right for MOnday. 

Para ticked southeast

Euro has a few storms to watch. Winter doesn't want to end.

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Grazes SE MA for Saturday. Only goes out to 90h so we can't see what happens Monday. The heights out ahead of the low are a bit lower than the 12z run but overall it still looks pretty amped...compared to, say, the gfs. 

Eps is also less amped than 12z

53 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

18z runs were fun. Fv3 is pretty damn close to the often confused ICON, maybe the blind can lead the blind. OP GFS is nice as well. Would be an epic threading of the needle given the poor teles.

Ensembles look nice

We go from a suppressed storm to a very amped storm within 2 runs. Unbelievable.

Just now, snowman19 said:

That’s the most likely scenario IMO. There is nothing to keep it from cutting. It has cutter/inland runner written all over it. The TPV gets stretched out, no -NAO

Nothing the most likely outcome this far out.

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh well. Congrats northerners again.

Hopefully it's too amped

We can't get lucky at all this winter. Pretty sad.

20 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Just a 1-3" scraper,  but close.

Eps is similiar to the Gfs

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Fv3 is back on for our best event of the year for Monday. Not in fantasy range range anymore but can't seem to get any consensus. Canadian and Euro are too warm for NYC, shocker.

Regular gfs also

Nam still has the follow up wave for Friday. 1-3 inch deal for the coast.

Nam still has the follow up wave for Friday

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That from 12z?  If so there was a mix of south, hits, and north. Problem was the really amped up solutions that put down big totals (8”+) were all north and rain. It was depressing that most of the hits were pretty minor to modest snowfalls.  The members that amped up into a big storm pushed the snow nw of us. That kind of was a red flag that out potential might be limited with this. If it’s weak it might hit but if it amps up enough to give good precip it might go north. 

These progressive waves are annoying that way. It’s really hard to get crushed by them at our latitude. That’s why I liked the idea of the northern branch digging and phasing and something bombing up the coast later in the week. That scenario would have more potential to give a big storm. The early week storm seems capped at a moderate event and even that seems ambitious att. 

I think it's 18z. More amped.

18z eps looks good for the coastal at 138 hours. More phased than 12z.

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Dear lord pls bring the heat and end this pos winter.

Too early for heat

Nam also has the 2nd wave for friday

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup . Early spring this year despite Ginx saying this morning it was nowhere to be seen. We’ve got about 16-20 days and then it’s shorts every day 

Late March