Iceresistance

I swear the accuracy of ASCAT is worse than a Star Wars Stormtrooper.

25 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Let's hope your theory is right because SST's in the Gulf are still 85+ and there is still a pocket of high Ocean Heat Content

Lots of Dry air in the Northern GoM right now, which is why it's very hostile to Tropical Cyclones. 

18 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Deja vu all over again, this early track consensus reminds me of the early days of Ian. Though this system should track more to the north and not into South America, its very interesting to say the least 

I'm thinking more westward than northward component because the Hurricane Season in the Gulf of Mexico is possibly over (Can't call it over yet). My general idea is like Ian's track except for more westward after getting closer to Cuba. 

The OP models generally want to have none of this, which is leading me to suggest that we may have spotted a sleeper system. 

20 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

According to Tropical Tidbits this is now 91L.

Yes, it is now 91L

This system may have strong outflow already! 

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Who are you referring to in saying "we all"?

In a different forum, I did not clarify, and I am more active in different forums compared to here.

We all thought that 2022 would be like 2013 all over again, boy we were so wrong. My other weather forum did 2013 comparisons until Earl/Fiona/Gaston/Hermine/Ian combo came and produced over 60 ACE combined!

(I won't be here very much, if one of the mods/admins can change the title for me when I'm gone for updates, that would be very helpful for me.  )

The NHC now has an AOI in the Central Atlantic that may develop in the Eastern Caribbean, this could be another monster in the Caribbean. Where it will go exactly is a different question. The Ensembles have this storm into Central America or Florida, again. 

I'm personally thinking that we could have an absolute beast in the Caribbean again, but this time. The peak intensity appears to be in the Caribbean. 

There is no Cold-Water Trail left by Ian, OHC is still really high in the Western Caribbean.
Wind Shear is low in the Caribbean (It was higher by Fiona's outflow when Ian first formed)
Very little to no Dry Air or SAL

This storm has the potential to become an absolute monster, wind shear is already relaxing and the structure is improving on satellite.

I find it wild that it formed under 30-40 knots of Wind Shear, which means that this system is determined to become a BEAST!

@Akeem the African Dream and all Florida members, please keep a very close eye on this. Could have the strongest landfall in that part of the state since Irma 2017.

Climate Prediction Center's Outlook on Winter 2020-2021, especially in February. 

On 8/3/2022 at 5:11 PM, ineedsnow said:

signing up? my girlfriend was never able to sign up because she never got a confirmation 

I have no issue signing up, it probably needs a e-mail confirmation from the admins.

I don’t have issues, maybe it’s certain devices becoming incompatible to be able to do it?

7 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

Is there picture or video footage of this? How was it confirmed? Just curious, not doubting.

NWS Fort Worh asked them for a verification, like @*IndyMeso* did.

But this is not the biggest ever confirmed, the Texas state record is 6.4 inches near Hondo in April 2022, Burkburnette had 6 inch hail in 2020.

5.5 inch hail has been confirmed in Salado, TX

Iowa is at the Triple Point again, highest forcing & could get yet ANOTHER Moderate risk there if the Mesoscale models keep going like the 12z HRRR did to Iowa

9 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Anyone know who'll be doing 18Z balloons?

Maybe Arkansas & SE Oklahoma

3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

The 00z HRRR was (predictably?) rough for KS/OK. Big time throwback to the 4/9/11 Mapleton, IA tornado though with a lone-ranger INVOF the triple point.

HRRR soundings I pulled from KS all exhibited fairly minimal CINh, so I'm honestly curious what exactly we're missing as far as the model not initiating... 

EDIT: Besides the fact that the wave is probably just a *touch* too far west...

Did initiate in Southern Oklahoma & Northern Texas

Local met from KFOR

1 hour ago, DanLarsen34 said:

This is worth noting. 

 

You beat me to it by an hour!

This must be one of the largest Enhanced risks I've ever seen!

Japan has Ocean-effect snow, they get a LOT of snowfall every winter

Maybe Winter is acting like "Snow to start, dry in the middle, & then end with a BANG!"

25 minutes ago, Quincy said:

It’s also changed substantially over the past couple of days. I advise extreme caution when looking at severe weather indicies more than 3-4 days out, especially when they’re *probably* based on a deterministic model, rather than ensembles. It’s also kind of silly to show high risk-equivalent graphics for a week out…

A lot can change, but here are my initial thoughts:

Monday looks like limited moisture return, especially with northward extent. I’d imagine the greatest threat remains across East Texas/Louisiana. Remember that we’re early in the season and antecedent dry conditions exist.

Tuesday may have the greatest apparent threat. Dryline could mix slightly farther east than progged, due to ongoing drought conditions. Maybe a more “classic” April event just east of I-35? Parameter space looks volatile, along with deep shear vectors nearly perpendicular to the dryline. Not overhyping yet, but operational models have shown run-to-run signals for at least a couple of days now.

Wednesday diverges in the models, but the threat should shift toward the Mississippi Valley. Wind fields are forecast to become more unidirectional with northward extent, along with less favorable moisture closer to an occluding surface low. Could be yet another threat around AR/LA/MS? Not sold on a farther north threat yet, but it’s still possible. 

Wednesday does highly depend on the northward extent of the severe weather threat because some models have a MCV developing into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday.

32 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

I haven't read on Mike's product yet, but that color table is suppose to match the SPC's outlook? That pink area doesn't represent a high risk type severity for all severe modes does it, if so I'd think something went wrong with the product! Its already changed to something reasonable however the former reminded me of the April 6-8 2006 event where there was this huge expanse of all severe modes that were also sig - an epic squall line further to the east than the Day 8 map. There was little difference between the 45% and 60% tor contours on the 7th. 

Yes, the Pink area matches the SPC's High Risk area, Ventrice's experimental automated forecast uses the colors for the SPC's Convective Outlook. (Thunderstorms, Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, & High (Could not find the Pink))