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ATDoel

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  1. ATDoel
    There are plenty of videos of storm chasers standing in major hurricane/typhoon winds, you will never find one of a chaser standing directly in any tornado of any size. You're severely downplaying the importance of the vertical component. I'm not going to post a video here because I don't want to confuse anyone, but look up Typhoon Haiyan videos.
  2. ATDoel
    bath water
  3. ATDoel
    The only reason the damage was bad for Helene was because so many communities built in the floodplain of the creeks and rivers.
  4. ATDoel
    practically speaking it's all horizontal. Tornadoes loft debris tens of thousands of feet in the air, a hurricane doesn't loft debris any appreciable amount, event light stuff. You can step out into 150 mph winds from a hurricane and most likely be fine, you do that during an EF3 and you're dead.
  5. ATDoel
    If a bear craps in the woods but no one is there, does it smell? If a hurricane has 160 mph winds at landfall but no one measured it directly from the ground, was it a cat 5?
  6. ATDoel
    Highly variable wind direction. Wind in a tornado rapidly changes direction and there's also a significant vertical component. In a hurricane it's all horizontal which slowly changes direction. Another factor is the debris. Watch videos of the strongest tropical cyclones and you'll see the occasional debris fly by. Compare that to a tornado where there's almost nothing but debris. I rather take 150 mph wind to my face than a 150 mph 2x4, but maybe that's just me lol.
  7. ATDoel
    Wind damage from a hurricane is no where near as extreme as wind damage from a tornado, with similar wind speeds. They aren't comparable. Most structures outside of the surge zone will survive this hurricane to some extent, it may just be the walls standing but they'll be there, unlike an EF4 tornado that slabs almost everything.
  8. ATDoel
    and then they become artificial reefs. No way they survive, wave action and surge will decimate them.
  9. ATDoel
    There's a peer reviewed study that states there's an anti-correlation between the two. We can scribble whatever we want on the back of a napkin but unless there's another peer reviewed study saying otherwise, there's an anti-correlation, no positive correlation.
  10. ATDoel
    Not sure how many 5s but Melissa is the strongest storm in our basin in history this late in the season
  11. ATDoel
    I posted a link to the study in the other thread, here it is. Effects of Solar Variability on Tropical Cyclone Activity - Nayak - 2024 - Earth and Space Science - Wiley Online Library To me the most obvious trend here is the increasing number of Cat 5s, regardless of solar activity. We've had 11 in the last 10 years, 17 in the last 20. There's no other 20 year period that even comes close to that. That has nothing to do with the solar cycles.
  12. ATDoel
    It's been studied. Effects of Solar Variability on Tropical Cyclone Activity - Nayak - 2024 - Earth and Space Science - Wiley Online Library
  13. ATDoel
    They do follow the solar cycle, but with an anti-correlation. Extreme tropical cyclones are least likely to occur during the solar maximum. However there's a very strong positive correlation with AGW.
  14. ATDoel
    Wind is a big deal but most people that die in hurricanes is from surge/flooding, not wind.
  15. ATDoel
    While they're still in the cone so still need to be cautious, it is looking good for Kingston from a wind perspective. Unfortunately they're still on the wet side and mudslides are devastating.
  16. ATDoel
    The last several center fixes by recon show a slowdown and northward turn. The turn is happening.
  17. ATDoel
    It's already turning
  18. ATDoel
    Another factor is that it really isn't moving. A storm's movement speed adds to it's max wind speed. If nothing changes at all the wind speed will come up a bit once it gets moving north.
  19. ATDoel
    ignore any of the SFMR readings, they aren't reliable, the NHC isn't using them at all.
  20. ATDoel
    It just depends on forward motion, it isn't basin specific. When Melissa starts moving NE, the strong side will be the SE side.
  21. ATDoel
    wow, looks like the MLC jumped to the LLC, that was fast. We may be off to the races now, next recon will probably find a much different storm.
  22. ATDoel
    This may be one of those storms (hopefully) that takes far longer to get it together than the models predict. The current LLC is significantly displaced rom the MLC still, nothing big is going to happen until they stack.
  23. ATDoel
    I don't know if I would describe that LLC as well defined. It still looks messy and very elongated to me based on satellite and recon data, but better than yesterday.
  24. ATDoel
    I think Mississippi might take the crown there, but only just. I've also noticed our peak tornado season has shifted to March, where historically it's usually been more in April.
  25. ATDoel
    I'm wondering the same thing, regardless always listen to the SPC and your local NWS!
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