George001

It’s been BN to well BN temps every month and most areas are sitting at 130-150% of average snow. It has objectively been the most severe winter in terms of cold and snow since 14-15. Boston is already sitting at what 40 inches, that’s close to the average for the ENTIRE SEASON and we have 3 more weeks of Feb + March still left. Yeah, most of our snow came from one storm but you know as well as anyone that’s how our climo is. I know we left some on the table (especially December), but I would also argue that the pattern overall has been been a notch below top La Niña winters like 10-11 and 95-96. We have not had as active of a STJ and less blocking overall than those winters, so I wouldn’t say we left a fuck ton on the table. This winter has produced really well overall, I’m happy with it.

The models were showing rain yesterday. I’d wait until they stabilize some before drawing conclusions rather than flip flopping with every run.

normally I’d look at the setup and say rain, but how cold the ocean temps are right now could help us (east winds not the death sentence they often are in these setups for the coast). If the low goes inland it will rain regardless, but I think we have more room for error than usual in these setups due to it being mid Feb + the unusually cold ocean temps.

Woke up early to hit the liquor store?

I agree it will end up being a cold and possibly snowy month overall, but I do agree with the idea of a mid month relaxation period.

Yeah this looks like more of a norlun event than a widespread plowable snow. I’m not expecting much from this, someone could end up with a surprise but I would think it’s a small area.

Yeah there will probably be a brief relaxation period.

It’s sunny out

Yeah the entire region is buried. I was wrong about the next storm, I thought it was coming back but looks like that one’s going out to sea. Normally I get annoyed with wasted potential, but we already have a metric fuck ton of snow on the ground. This is an old school New England winter, none of that chasing ghosts in a sea of warmth bullshit. Still have all of Feb and Mar left for more winter weather too. I like Torch Tiger, he’s a decent guy but I do think he has been doing some day drinking recently.

Having civil disagreements is fine, but insulting and verbally abusing meteorologists like that should be ban worthy. The expertise of those who do this for a living and work in the field is incredibly valuable, it’s important to keep in mind the mets here are providing us with information they paid tens of thousands of dollars to learn for free. Yes, they bust sometimes, that’s the nature of the field. Forming a hypothesis, testing it, rejecting it when incorrect, and updating it as you get new information is not a moral failing, it’s literally a core part of the scientific method. @brooklynwx99 has been on this board for years. Despite a lot of the material he and the other mets here post being over my head, I have noticed his predictions have gotten more accurate over the years. From the perspective of an outsider, it looks like he made incorrect predictions, learned from them, and adapted his process over time. I view him as a story of a younger meteorologist (he mentioned he’s a younger guy on another server I was in) successfully applying the scientific method and becoming better and better at his job because of it. That’s a success story, its exactly what smart and analytically minded people do. In the interest of optimizing the pursuit of knowledge, it’s in all of our best interests to not drive the mets here off this board, and to stop moralizing the scientific process.

I thought the models would correct west today. They didn’t, but it’s still a massive ocean storm where even a 50 mile NW bump would make a huge difference. It’s too early to throw in the towel especially for eastern areas.

I’m not buying this eastern trend at all. Something big is going to happen this weekend.

Agreed. The location of the western ridge axis even on the worse runs is over Idaho as the storm approaches. That doesn’t scream suppression.

AI gfs is more amplified

I’d be happy with a repeat of the early Jan 2018 storm. Yeah it left some on the table, but it was still a blizzard and still had over a foot of snow. If we get a repeat of that, I’m looking at reaching my seasonal average snowfall by Feb 2nd. No matter what happens, still a lot of winter left.