George001

Looks like I nailed it besides the blizzard thing (good chance the winds aren’t strong enough). Regardless, since this post the storm has trended hundreds of miles north on the models. This is going to be a burial, and I don’t think we are done. February is the snowiest month of the year for my area in terms of average monthly snowfall. If we do get a polar vortex split like @40/70 Benchmark has been talking about, March could be interesting too.

yeah, that’s worth keeping an eye on. What really caught my attention is it is a miller B, not a miller A.

Mixing getting into SNE is absolutely possible. In huge storms like this it can and does happen a lot, and the trough axis is pretty far west. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but I’m keeping an open mind about the possibility given the setup and model trends. That said, if it happens it is what it is. I will be happy for the north.

But….. it’s following the canonical front loaded Nina script, therefore I gotta ignore all guidance, stick to my guns, and continue being a raging insufferable asshole to everyone who disagrees with me.

when the debate is whether we “only get 8-12” vs 18 ish, that’s a great spot to be in.

Things change. A more northern track does introduce the risk for sleet/mix, it’s very common for SE Mass/cape to mix in these setups.

Snows east of the low?

Canadian looks even more north

Gfs looks more amplified

Ah I see what you are getting at. The STJ got active at times last winter too, and it was a La Niña with a La Niña subsurface. Point taken, It’s other factors that are driving the pattern, not ENSO. And that includes STJ activity.

I don’t think Tony is entirely off base about the La Niña collapsing. While it is true that the surface is still solidly La Niña, the subsurface has warmed rapidly and is now warm neutral. I remember Chuck highlighted the importance of the subsurface a while ago. How big or small of a role do you think that is playing in terms of the now active STJ?

It is looking increasingly likely that this upcoming blizzard will be the biggest region wide event since Jan 29th 2022.

I agree, something big is going to happen.

Bernie Rayno is favoring more of a northern track. He said in his video he’s not really buying what the gfs suite is selling.

I’m not sure about the wagons south thing, it’s a massive storm. There is a lot of energy flying around.