George001

Yeah the entire region is buried. I was wrong about the next storm, I thought it was coming back but looks like that one’s going out to sea. Normally I get annoyed with wasted potential, but we already have a metric fuck ton of snow on the ground. This is an old school New England winter, none of that chasing ghosts in a sea of warmth bullshit. Still have all of Feb and Mar left for more winter weather too. I like Torch Tiger, he’s a decent guy but I do think he has been doing some day drinking recently.

Having civil disagreements is fine, but insulting and verbally abusing meteorologists like that should be ban worthy. The expertise of those who do this for a living and work in the field is incredibly valuable, it’s important to keep in mind the mets here are providing us with information they paid tens of thousands of dollars to learn for free. Yes, they bust sometimes, that’s the nature of the field. Forming a hypothesis, testing it, rejecting it when incorrect, and updating it as you get new information is not a moral failing, it’s literally a core part of the scientific method. @brooklynwx99 has been on this board for years. Despite a lot of the material he and the other mets here post being over my head, I have noticed his predictions have gotten more accurate over the years. From the perspective of an outsider, it looks like he made incorrect predictions, learned from them, and adapted his process over time. I view him as a story of a younger meteorologist (he mentioned he’s a younger guy on another server I was in) successfully applying the scientific method and becoming better and better at his job because of it. That’s a success story, its exactly what smart and analytically minded people do. In the interest of optimizing the pursuit of knowledge, it’s in all of our best interests to not drive the mets here off this board, and to stop moralizing the scientific process.

I thought the models would correct west today. They didn’t, but it’s still a massive ocean storm where even a 50 mile NW bump would make a huge difference. It’s too early to throw in the towel especially for eastern areas.

I’m not buying this eastern trend at all. Something big is going to happen this weekend.

Agreed. The location of the western ridge axis even on the worse runs is over Idaho as the storm approaches. That doesn’t scream suppression.

AI gfs is more amplified

I’d be happy with a repeat of the early Jan 2018 storm. Yeah it left some on the table, but it was still a blizzard and still had over a foot of snow. If we get a repeat of that, I’m looking at reaching my seasonal average snowfall by Feb 2nd. No matter what happens, still a lot of winter left.

The low moving east to west into PA won’t happen, but the second track isn’t impossible. I don’t like it, but it can and has happened before. It’s probably going to be east of that though.

We have our differences of opinion, but hes a good dude and id like him to stick around. So @TauntonBlizzard2013, before making a post downplaying or calling off a storm, I strongly recommend doing shrooms first to break down the mental barriers, view yourself objectively and ask “am I downplaying this because i genuinely believe what I’m saying, or is it a form of coping”?

Yeah, surface temps != ratios. I remember a few years ago those kuchera maps gave me 10-12 in a WAA event, I ended up with around 7 and was disappointed. I like the approach old school mets like Bernie Rayno use. He uses models as tools to help make forecasts, but his #1 tool is the depth of knowledge and experience he has as a meteorologist who has been doing it for decades. I recall him mentioning in a video a week ago he believed the storm would take more of a northern track due to the overall setup and his previous experience as a meteorologist who has seen this setup before.

Early Jan 2018 had a huge miller A that occluded too far south. Still was a great storm, but was 12-16 rather than a widespread 2 footer due to it blowing its load too early.

I’m eyeballing 17-18 inches. Burial

Canadian is also more amplified

Yeah the drifting makes it tough. I tried measuring in different spots, got 15, 17, 11, 12, and 13 inches.

That one is worth watching for sure, we are in a cold and amplified pattern.