George001

Yeah it’s a different way of getting there time around because geomag activity is high, not low like it was in 2010. It is my understanding that the expected polar vortex intrusion is being driven by the -QBO (2010 was +QBO) and low North Atlantic sea ice instead. The main reason I like 2010 as an analog though is I see similar potential for the -NAO to amplify the La Niña pattern, leading to a stormy and snowy pattern for northern areas (miller B storm track).

I’m tossing 95 but not 10.

That’s a reasonable assumption to make. I think we will see more bad winters which will drive us crazy, but when things line up….. watch out. I think its coming this year.

There are some really damn good winters in that list

South of NE is more dicey, agree. I like Jan best, but I am not sold on a bad Feb especially for New England and possibly the northern mid atlantic. Gradient patterns can lead to big snows if you are north of the storm track. It is also looking like the polar vortex is going to be especially prone to disruptions this year.

Agree, its no longer a debate whether or not La Niña will develop. We are below the -0.5 threshold on the weeklies in 3 of the 4 ENSO regions, pretty much all the non ONI indices are consistent with La Niña, and the CPC has announced that La Nina conditions are present. So, La Niña is already here. The question is how long does it stay intact and when does it peak? I am hearing some people argue that the La Niña will break down in January and others believe it will remain intact the entire winter. What are your thoughts here? I am very skeptical of the idea it breaks down in January.

Historical precedence argued against this, I remember doing research on this when hearing about all the El Niño hype. 2 years after a strong or super Nino goes -ENSO roughly 80% of the time.

I’m not nearly as negative about Feb as many here, but that surprises me. Just curious, what do you think many of us who are less optimistic about Feb are missing? Or are you just less optimistic about January? edit: I just saw your post raising concerns about the pac jet for January.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a repeat of last Feb with storms taking more of a northern track. I am all in on a big January though.

I am very excited for this winter. I do not except really any snow until the second half of December but strongly believe that January will be a burial.

Agree. If we do get a fast start to winter I would expect that to not only continue into January, but would expect January to be the snowiest month of the winter. The strat stuff actually lines up with January better than December anyways when taking into account the lag period.

Well…. technically 96-97 was a bad winter even in Boston

Yeah it takes time to build snowpack. Right now it is slowly building over western Canada, and is beginning to expand south and east. This process will continue until the snow arrives in New England by mid-late December.

below normal temps for New England in the La Niña/-QBO composite….. sign me up

Either way 2014 isn’t an analog I would use, but I do think it’s worth keeping an open mind about +ENSO analogs if other factors line up. I would prefer a negative PDO though