Mount Joy Snowman

3K is even worse, with Lancaster crew losing over half its total QPF to mix. Ugly.

The problem with the NAM is the sleet bombing happens during the best rates and we lose a ton of qpf. As others have stated, we need the thump to come in hot and heavy and the switch over to be after best rates have passed. NAM has a general 6-8" for the southern tier counties. It doesn't change the fact that it's a highly impactful event but it would change snow maps quite a bit. Do we take this seriously? I think we have to at this point, even if it may be a shade overdone.

I mean, this is only 1pm.......outlier? We sure hope

NAM going hog wild with the sleet through the late morning and early afternoon hours, more so than even previous runs. Not backing down. Sheesh.

NAM through 24 is nearly identical to 6z.

HRRR cuts snow totals a bit for southern tier counties due to sleet encroachment but still ~10". Sets up a Route 30 battle zone through much of the late afternoon. Rates likely to determine precip type, but one thing that is becoming clear, those of us down this way will indeed see some sleet during the height of the storm, perhaps significantly so. I just never trust the globals to properly capture the warm noses and it seems it may have happened again. Positive spin, as others have alluded, some sleet on top of a nice thump just adds to pack retention. High impact event no matter how you slice it.

Sleet line definitely encroaching much more at the height of the storm than at 6z, up to Lanc/Dauphin border by ~3pm. Edit: Although much like 6z, it starts to get beat back right after that, a true battle zone.

So true, always a great tactic. Takes some grunt work but worth the effort. HRRR through 24 looks the same to me, outside of maybe being sped up an hour or two.

Low of 5. It's wild with these temps that (1) we have a major snowstorm even happening at all and (2) some of us have to worry about mixing. Hi-res models seem to be all over the place with the extent of the sleet. Today's 12z runs crucial, starting with the HRRR which is firing as we speak. Let's do this.

Primary is just too amped. Nam would be a downer for sure, given expectations, but it definitely does some wonky things from frame to frame. I dont know, but if it scores a victory here......damn.

By 1pm sleet overtakes much of our forum, even ahead of 18z pace, with 6-9" having fallen.

No real changes thru 24 to these eyes.

Warning: The NAM is running. Hide the women and children.

We've been ninja'ing each other all day (that's the term isn't it?) haha. Good stuff Chris.

Sleet battle in York/Lanc all through the mid afternoon hours, then somewhat retreats from 5-7pm. Snow continues as run ends at 7pm Sun with ~9-11" across the LSV. A tightrope across southeastern counties.

HRRR at 1pm Sun has primary a bit stronger with sleet line a smidge north of 18z, hitting PA/MD line, snow at 7-9" at that point. Let's see how she finishes.

HRRR thru 36 has thermals a wee bit warmer and sleet line a skosh north of 18z.

Just for sh$ts and giggles, here is what the GFS threw out for next sunday into monday, just a whole hog coastal bomb. KMJS for the win haha.....

You and everyone else haha. Your post with the skew-t was spot on, how so many people just look at the 850 and 700 panels and assume they're good when it's always that layer in between that gets us. So aggravating for us southeasterners, always fighting it.

GFS mostly holds serve but does bring the sleet line a wee bit further north. It's that 800-750mb layer that always kills us. Need the big thump before any worries arrive.

18z ICON slightly north with the mixing as well, but only a marginal reduction in totals.

We sure have, which is why I never totally rule it out, but it had panels where it was literally showing the thermals colder and further south on all levels yet showing the sleet line further north. Bizarre.

You know it's interesting, the NAM run was looking colder and slightly better at all levels during the early part of the run when it's in its prime range but then kind of fell apart later in the run in ways that didn't make sense. I'm not buying it and think by 12z tomorrow it mostly looks like the others. We hope.

Latest RRFS also throws the sleet well up into PA unlike its 12z run and reduces totals accordingly. Not buying any of this yet but man.