Mount Joy Snowman

Very sorry to hear that.

100% steady rain with a temp of 36. Haven't seen a flake mix in yet. I never really expected any accumulation here until damn-near sundown. I think CTP's map is going to be adjusted downward through the afternoon.

Nice, did you go chasing?

Yeah sitting low amongst the mountains and they must be forecasting that area to miss out on the IVT.

Correct, but it always sucks seeing it play out on the models. We'll get what we get.

The NAM continues the eastern rug-pull. Really going to try and enjoy this evening no matter what but I hate this feeling. Mentally preparing myself for a bust. The 3k NAM perfectly illustrates my "stuck in the middle" concerns.

Low of 34, currently 36 with light rain. I took the inner cylinder out of the gauge in anticipation of this event so can't tell how much but no more than a couple hundredths. Not loving what I'm seeing perusing various models this morning. A worst-case scenario would be the coastal keeps ticking east leaving us outside of its primary bands and the trough sets up in more of a State College to South Mountain type corridor so we miss that as well. Stuck in the middle with you. Hope not but it's looking like a distinct possibility at this point, perhaps even the most likely. Despite all that, CTP's map keeps improving. I'll be here either way ha.

Yeah that was painful to view. I'm just completely lost at this point, can't imagine how professional Mets are feeling haha. I just got off a long call with a buddy who is a big weather guy and we have no idea how things are going to play out. Hope we aren't stuck in the middle of the two features.

The Canadians have never been on board. Not sure what to make of it.

No no, thank you. You're a damn legend. I know I speak for many when I say we appreciate you. Know that your work is always valued.

Beautiful writeup, exquisite. A true professional.

And as I know you've seen, multiple other opportunities over the next week. This winter is not over after this storm. She won't quit.

Do yourselves a favor and put an hourly model, say the 3k NAM, in motion and just watch it to completion. It's poetry in motion. The very reason many of us spend time on this crazy hobby. I love this board and all of you, now let's reel this mother-fu$%er in for the forum. And yes, I've had a couple whiskeys, so be it. We wait all year for nights like these. Cheers fiends!

The NAM again has the entire state of New Jersey over two feet and some central parts above three feet. Looking more and more like our heaviest snows will come during the predawn hours and even perhaps into early Monday morning. The extreme cutoff between MDT and LNS remains rock solid at damn near a foot difference. What a storm we're in for.

I must admit I was not expecting to be at 36 right now. One thing that seems to be coming clearer is that this is likely to extend well into Monday morning and perhaps even start a bit later as far as snow in earnest. Can't see how the schools don't have off Monday. HRRR snowfall below. It's NAM time.

Yep. Mainly just delayed for my area though. Totals roughly the same, still large. That cutoff from here to Harrisburg is something else though and Carlisle is likely on the outside looking in but could cash in on the trough. So much uncertainty across the LSV, makes it fun or miserable depending on your perspective haha.

HRRR through the afternoon tomorrow with much less precip and more rain influence. Not that there was much snow accumulation by that point anyway but something to monitor. Probably just pushing everything back timewise. We'll see.

CTP getting aggressive with that Lanc Co cutoff, as we've seen simulated so often.

0z here we come. Who's with me!?

You ain't kiddin pal....

Often imitated, never duplicated.....the RAP

Haha I know, that's a hilarious map. God bless the NAM.

Welp, I guess we can finally say it, "We got NAM'd!"

HRRR could make a grown man cry, snows through lunchtime on Monday.

An updated map from CTP.....