Mount Joy Snowman

Haha if the screw zone makes it all the way to you god help us all. The folks far enough across the river may actually end up doing better than us if that norlun sets up over them. There will still be some fun to be had tonight.

HRRR continues the slow crawl back (see gif below). Has been pretty consistent in us switching to all snow around the 5pm timeframe. Then we get what we get from there. Should at least see some decent rates during the dark hours.

I just did. It can be confusing because they stupidly have two different maps on different tabs but the one I posted is the updated one. It's timestamped later. They have cut back on totals, as expected.

I don't think that's correct. See below.

All you can do is laugh! What's becoming pretty clear is that a subsidence screw zone is likely to setup somewhere between say @Itstrainingtime and @CarlislePaWx. Question is exactly where but you reside right in the middle of that swath soooooo not great haha.

Man, that was actually sad to read haha.

Yeah the trends haven't been great for us this morning ha.

They only thing I have been certain of during the entire tracking period of this storm is that my buddy in Hammonton, NJ is going to get absolutely mollywhopped haha.

Temp up to 37, even as a burst of heavier snow just moved through. Now back to rain and snow mix.

Good to see you posting. I'm finally seeing some white rain here. Temp shot up to 37 but is back down to 36 now. All surfaces very wet. Not expecting any meaningful accumulation until sundown.

It's so odd to behold. Not sure I've ever seen someone choose a career in weather who has a pure disdain for all-things snow or winter. I couldn't believe some of the comments I saw him make this past week. He said this winter was insufferable and unbearable and that he hated it. Constantly ranting about models. Also agreed with many people who made comments like, "It's crazy to me how anyone could enjoy winter or snowstorms." Just all types of stuff trashing snow-lovers. He may get the forecast right and that's great, that he did his job properly, but his tone and biases are really something else.

Very sorry to hear that.

100% steady rain with a temp of 36. Haven't seen a flake mix in yet. I never really expected any accumulation here until damn-near sundown. I think CTP's map is going to be adjusted downward through the afternoon.

Nice, did you go chasing?

Yeah sitting low amongst the mountains and they must be forecasting that area to miss out on the IVT.

Correct, but it always sucks seeing it play out on the models. We'll get what we get.

The NAM continues the eastern rug-pull. Really going to try and enjoy this evening no matter what but I hate this feeling. Mentally preparing myself for a bust. The 3k NAM perfectly illustrates my "stuck in the middle" concerns.

Low of 34, currently 36 with light rain. I took the inner cylinder out of the gauge in anticipation of this event so can't tell how much but no more than a couple hundredths. Not loving what I'm seeing perusing various models this morning. A worst-case scenario would be the coastal keeps ticking east leaving us outside of its primary bands and the trough sets up in more of a State College to South Mountain type corridor so we miss that as well. Stuck in the middle with you. Hope not but it's looking like a distinct possibility at this point, perhaps even the most likely. Despite all that, CTP's map keeps improving. I'll be here either way ha.

Yeah that was painful to view. I'm just completely lost at this point, can't imagine how professional Mets are feeling haha. I just got off a long call with a buddy who is a big weather guy and we have no idea how things are going to play out. Hope we aren't stuck in the middle of the two features.

The Canadians have never been on board. Not sure what to make of it.

No no, thank you. You're a damn legend. I know I speak for many when I say we appreciate you. Know that your work is always valued.

Beautiful writeup, exquisite. A true professional.

And as I know you've seen, multiple other opportunities over the next week. This winter is not over after this storm. She won't quit.

Do yourselves a favor and put an hourly model, say the 3k NAM, in motion and just watch it to completion. It's poetry in motion. The very reason many of us spend time on this crazy hobby. I love this board and all of you, now let's reel this mother-fu$%er in for the forum. And yes, I've had a couple whiskeys, so be it. We wait all year for nights like these. Cheers fiends!

The NAM again has the entire state of New Jersey over two feet and some central parts above three feet. Looking more and more like our heaviest snows will come during the predawn hours and even perhaps into early Monday morning. The extreme cutoff between MDT and LNS remains rock solid at damn near a foot difference. What a storm we're in for.