Mount Joy Snowman

Thanks! My boss just returned from there today. I know he was lamenting the damage that would be done to his wallet ha.

Bradford hit 6 last night, Mt. Pocono 8. National high of 101 at Rio Grande Village, TX and low of -25 at Estcourt Station, ME. Met Winter at MDT came in cold (4.4 BN), dry (3.00" BN), and with typical snowfall (.9" AN). The last part may surprise some, as MDT recorded 23.8" of snow, whereas normal is 22.9". So basically, we did alright on the snowfall front considering the lack of precip. Some other random stats: Average wind speed/direction was 7.9mph/WNW (300 degrees to be precise); average sky cover was 65%; and, MDT observed 27 days with light snow falling, 6 with snow, 2 with heavy snow, 6 with sleet, and 11 with fog reducing visibility to <1/4 mile. Onward.

Totally missed the spring thread, hello all! My low was a chilling 21 last night and I continue to think tomorrow morning's commute could be quite problematic with a pre-dawn arrival of the precip. 12z Hi-res guidance seems to be coming it a bit colder on average and some are insistent on a good inch-plus of snowfall. Even if not, I think ice accretion will be quite efficient. While yes, the system looks a bit moisture starved, freezing rain accumulates the best at light rates. With last night dipping so low, if today stays mostly cloudy and mid 30s and tonight drops back into 20s I don't think we have any temp issues whatsoever. If it starts as snow I think we get almost immediate stickage. I just think this is one of those classic events that is getting little attention and no one thinks anything of until everyone goes to pile in their cars between 6-8am tomorrow morning and realizes "oh crap". I could be wrong and this could end as mostly a nothing burger, but I think the timing and temps will be in place to make this an impactful event.

Low of 21. Tomorrow morning’s commute could be dicey in some areas.

Low of 34 with a rounded-up .01” of rainfall. We still have a tiny patch of snow in our backyard but today will truly be the last of it. Looks like a couple of cold days to get through before the warmth comes. Carry on.

Yeah the Tuesday morning commute could end up being quite problematic if timing works out. Coming off of a couple of very cold nights too, along with a daytime high Monday of perhaps only the mid 30s. Roads could be a mess, wouldn't take much. This one is sneaking up on people. We'll have to see how the Mesos's handle it the next 48 hours.

We have loads of sun down here.

Low of 31. Splendid day on tap today. I’m going to take the kids to the park. I imagine everyone will be out and about. Then a few days of crappy weather before we get the prolonged warmup. But winter is still lurking for late March.

That’s an incredible photo. Wow.

I really would have but let's not forget I was still around for it, albeit suckling on my mother's teet. Speaking of whom, I asked her if she remembers that event and she did not but said she would check through some old photos. We lived in Mount Joy Borough at the time (I haven't made it far ha) so they should have had a nice hit there. I'm waiting to hear back from my dad but doubt he cared to remember ha. I think sometimes we forget just how little most of the population really cares about weather. Sometimes I'll mention what I think is something cool about weather to someone and they'll just look at me like, "yeah sure thing pal". It's really unhealthy the disdain I'm starting to feel for this man haha.

I had just been born three months prior.

Low of 26 and foggy, freezing fog dare I say. Not sure what to make of early next week as it's kind of a mess as depicted but it does not appear as if any type of significant snow event is in the cards for us. Then we get wet and warm through mid-month. After that, who knows, continual spring or winter's last stand? Stay tuned. Happy Friday, all.

Yes but such a wave may very well come at the expense of the first wave missing to our south and resetting the boundary. Much to be ironed out.

Yes it has. Also, it won't be talked about much because it's a pretty meager event and we were never fully in the crosshairs but today was a pretty big miss by the GFS, one in which it didn't cave to the other models until inside of 24 hours. As far as Monday, I still feel pretty good about where we are. 0z GFS wasn't as far south and I don't put as much stock in the off-hour runs. Other models also still have varying degrees of support. WPC still has us in the heart of its precip map so that's good. Much to be determined the next couple days but isn't it fun when we're entering March and have to worry about Virginia and North Carolina stealing our snow haha.

I've always kind of thought 25-30" as a good approximation for our average, which seems about right. See below for all my January data (not sure how great this will come through). Date Prec. Type Water Snow 6-Jan Rain 0.01 9-Jan Rain 0.05 10-Jan Rain 0.45 11-Jan Snow 0.01 14-Jan Rain 0.05 17-Jan Snow 0.17 2.2 18-Jan Snow 0.21 2.5 24-Jan Snow 0.33 3.7 25-Jan Snow/Sleet 1.25 5.1 26-Jan Snow 0.01

I'll tell ya what, we're getting pretty close to normal though. I'm at 22.1" for the season. MU's historical seasonal average snowfall is 26.6", 24.7" if we use median instead of mean, which I actually prefer in this instance because it's a right-skewed distribution. Harrisburg's POR mean is 32.4" and I think more recently is a shade under 30". I love that you are almost exactly equidistance between the two sites, makes for some interesting comparisons. A couple other random stations near us.......The Lancaster Filter Plant has only more recent data but is missing some years and they average 19.9". There's a Landisville station that has quite an extensive POR going back to the 50's but is missing a lot of recent years that averages 25.7". There's also a York Haven site across the river from you that has a terribly incomplete set of data but averages 27.7 FWIW. Sorry for throwing a bunch of useless info at you haha.

Yep, had me wondering if we have to worry about too much of a cold press. I'll take my chances being on that side of things though, being an early March event and all.

GFS still wanting to bring some snow Thursday, although not sure how much it would matter with a middle of the day event and marginal temps, to say nothing of the lack of other model support ha. However, it's still showing the Monday storm, albeit a bit weaker this time (probably more realistic), and temps do not appear to be an issue whatsoever in that one.

While going by on the train this morning I noticed the river at MDT is really starting to flow nicely but boy is there one heck of a logjam of ice once you get to the turnpike bridge and points north.

GFS is on an island for Thursday but boy does it continue to look good for Monday, with varying degrees of support from other models, after which there are another couple of sporadic waves that may need watching. Next week could be interesting before we finally turn warm for a bit.

Low of 24 but 32 when I left the house with no sign of snow. It’s funny, when I got home last night our kids were sledding out back. Half of our backyard holds snow exceptionally well, with the orientation of the slope and a couple large trees that are positioned perfectly to provide shade but not diminish precip. We even had a little swath of snow left from the big event more than a month ago when Sunday’s event occurred.

GFS with three separate possible snow events of varying types and intensities over the next six days. Goes big for Monday's bowling bowl.

Not sure if you know where to find them but here's a direct link to January's, just click the "Previous Version" link near the top to view prior months. Enjoy. National Weather Service

The monthly, seasonal, and annual climate summary reports for the official stations roughly sum things up. See below for an example from January's report. SKY COVER POSSIBLE SUNSHINE (PERCENT) MM AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.62 NUMBER OF DAYS FAIR 4 NUMBER OF DAYS PC 16 NUMBER OF DAYS CLOUDY 11 AVERAGE RH (PERCENT) 63 WEATHER CONDITIONS. NUMBER OF DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORM 0 MIXED PRECIP 0 HEAVY RAIN 0 RAIN 1 LIGHT RAIN 5 FREEZING RAIN 0 LT FREEZING RAIN 1 HAIL 0 HEAVY SNOW 2 SNOW 4 LIGHT SNOW 7 SLEET 2 FOG 13 FOG W/VIS <= 1/4 MILE 4 HAZE 3

Agree with your overall premise but I still always root for snow, no matter the amount. I like watching it fall, I like the scenery it creates, I like putting it "in the books", I just like....well, snow ha. But totally get what you're saying about it disappearing quickly once we head towards March. With that said, I can confirm that every farm field from West Hempfield to Harrisburg was covered in white this morning -- a beautiful scene, even if it won't last much longer.