Mount Joy Snowman

The 7" depth seems reasonable, but when they report "snowfall" it should be a bit higher.

Hot damn am I jealous. Really hoping we can get in on some of that here. If I squint I think I can see some mangled flakes trying to work their way back in.

Wow, what a comeback this would be! I have been POUNDING sleet for the last couple hours. I'll get another measurement when and if the snow starts back up here. Just made the wife and I some orange crushes, let the fun begin!

Yes, it very well could but my fear is the precip will be dried up enough by then that any accumulations would be minimal, which seems to be what the short-term guidance hints at. Would love to be wrong haha.

You're a damn genius JNS!

Yes, I'm aware. But he said the next closest guess was well above him, so unless MDT goes well over 10" (seems unlikely), he would be the winner. That's why I said "likely win". All good.

Congrats on your likely win! Well played. "Never underestimate the warm nose", he whispers to himself.

Welp, it is rage pouring sleet here right now, under some serious radar returns. The sleet hitting our magnolia tree is one of the loudest things I've ever heard haha. My neighbor is out shoveling and we just had a good chuckle, couldn't believe how hard it was coming down.

Sleet up to Harrisburg and Lebanon before noontime, tragic. So, who had the low estimate for MDT?

I know, there's nothing more aggravating during a storm. Doubly aggravating when we're sitting at damn near single degree temps.

Well, was going to do a Noon observation but decided to up it to 11am per @Itstrainingtime's request bc sure enough I have pingers mixing in here. Hard to overstate how discouraging it is to being seeing sleet (1) by 11am (2) while I'm staring at a temp of 12 on my home station and (3) given where we were with this storm a few days ago. Got to give the NAM its flowers for sniffing out the extent of that warm layer before anyone else. But anyway, last three hours brought an additional 3.8" of snow for a storm total of 7.5" thus far. For now, it has flipped back to mostly snow but I'm sure the pinger takeover is imminent. Now we see how much sleet we can rack up. Congrats to those NW of Harrisburg, looking forward to hearing of some big totals!

It's the worst thing about this site. On the rare occasion I do so, I email the pic to myself as a smaller file and then copy and paste it in from there. Seems to work but who knows ha.

Yes, I absolutely plan to do exactly that, hopefully not for a couple more hours ha. It's a total whiteout at the moment, with lowest visibility of the day. Ripping fine flakes.

What's your snow total as of now?

Damn, that's wildly disappointing. I think I see your mPing report, you just south of New Salem?

No it's not. It's approaching the PA/MD border per CC radar with mPing reports confirming that. And I hate to say that.

Next official measurement at Noon but wanted to provide an interim update. KMJS sitting at 11/9 with heavy snow and what looks to be close to 2.5" additional inches having fallen in the last two hours. I've always kind of had in my head the O/U for sleet arrival time at ~1pm so anything beyond that and I'll be happy although it will likely be earlier. Here's to the next couple hours of boom!

Good morning everyone! 8am Obs: sitting at 10/8 with moderate to heavy snow and 3.7" accumulation. Real heavy stuff on the doorstep. These next several hours are the business down here because honestly I don't like the sleet trends at all from overnight. I think most of our afternoon is going to end up being squandered with pingers down here and it looks like it may in fact extend well into dauphin/lebanon counties. Even the models that were keeping the sleet totally at bay now bring it up this way. In any case, big front-end thump looks glorious. Let's all enjoy this sweet powder. Good luck to all!

God I hope you're right. That's why I was so locked in on the 0z HRRR. Would be a fun battle zone down here, not a pure takeover like the NAM.

The NAM just won't quit, slightly cooler but not enough to matter, an I-80 to Route 6 jackpot haha. Lancaster 5-8". It's going down with the ship one way or another. Tomorrow will be quite illuminating.

My brotha, honestly I think you're good now. I think the NAM is overamped as per normal bias and the battleground is through Lanc/York. Doesn't mean you won't see some sleet but I doubt it's meaningful. I've talked to some other people and they'd be shocked if Harrisburg didn't get 12+ and honestly 15". The NAM will get credit for sniffing out the sleet, as it should, but it will overplay its hand. Can't wait for tomorrow!

Map reflects a solid improvement for Lanc/York Counties. Hard to overstate what a battle it is in the thermal department right over the southern tier. Route 30 warzone. As others have stated, nowcasting from here on out. Let's go!

Looking ever so slightly better through the late afternoon to early evening hours across Lancaster County. Such a battle but cold air gets a couple more punches through compared to 18z.

HRRR a skosh warmer through 12 compared to 18z but also higher on early totals, perhaps coming in a bit hot and heavy. Let's see how she progresses.

We have some friends over right now but I plan on being dialed in for the 0z HRRR, maybe my most anticipated model run in years.