Mount Joy Snowman

Sadly, I agree with this.

Indeed I am, sitting low down here. On clear calm nights I will often bottom out at least 3-5 degrees lower than places near the top of the ridge just south of me, and that's off of only like a 200-300' difference in elevation. Snow-packed winter nights can bring about even more extreme differences. I was actually going to call you out on your MDT claim the other day haha. I check it every day and it's not unusual at all for MDT's low to be at least a few degrees warmer than everyone else. I'm talking all the official reporting stations too (not just our home weenie stations), where MDT will routinely have the highest overnight low in the state, often even warmer than the two Philly stations. Looks like I topped out today at 92, how 'bout you? Since I haven't posted in a minute, not sure if it was already brought to everyone's attention but it looks like we ended up with 13 confirmed tornados in PA on July 29th, albeit only one in the LSV, that being an EFO in Lebanon Co. This is the fifth largest daily outbreak in the state's history. Almost all were very weak and short-lived, with 7 EF0s, 4 EF1s, 1 EF2, and 1 EF3 (the crazy car dealership one out near Bensalem). What ended up being pretty pedestrian around here was quite the show in the western and eastern portions of the state. Also, more medals for the US wrestling team, including an epic comeback in the gold medal match by heavyweight Gable Stevenson. All five of the American men's freestyle wrestlers have earned a medal in Tokyo, just an incredible historic performance!

Forgive me while I go off topic for a minute but I'm still running high after watching Penn State wrestling legend David Taylor win his first ever gold medal this morning on a last second takedown! The grit, the guts, the determination.......just everything. What a moment for David, who has been through so much to get to this point. The US wrestling team is having a heck of an Olympics, with still more accolades on the way. I love me some wrestling, the oldest greatest sport!

Oh wow, you almost matched the MDT-thou-shallst-not-drop-below-60 curse.

55 here last night. More beautiful weather on tap. What more can a lad ask for. Edit: Let us note yet again that MDT only dropped to 60, only place outside of Philly to not hit 50s.

I hit 57 last night and totaled .42" of glorious H2O. Beautiful stretch of weather on tap. Men's Freestyle Wrestling should get started at the Olympics before long. Life is good.

How about it. It looked nasty coming in but was just garden variety stuff. Sounded like a decent dumping though, will check gauge in the morning.

Yeah I’ve noticed that, would love for some of that action to make its way over here but it doesn’t seem to want to move much. I only have ~.05 so far. We’ll see what that line brings with it later this evening.

Of course he’d have a chance. The big obstacle may be the primary, as it depends what the big T decides to do. His loyal base and name recognition could be tough to beat in a primary setting, although I do believe DeSantis would eat him alive in a debate setting. Also depends on what the Dems do. I absolutely can’t see Biden running again and I think they know Kamala isn’t the answer. It’s tough to “forecast” (to keep it weather related tehe) at this point because there is sooooo long to go and as we know there will be approximtaely 5 trillion news cycles between now and then ha. Check back in three years. Lots of weather to discuss between now and then!

Man you guys have the board popping this morning! But yes you nailed it. I bottomed out at 56 last night, MDT 60.

I’m at 66. Just sitting here with a nice Manhattan watching the Olympics. It’s funny you talk about wanting to move there, as we know multiple people who live down there and many more who are planning to go and they all love DeSantis. Florida isn’t for me though. I’m a PA boy born and bred. Almost all of our family and good friends are here so I don’t see us ever leaving.

Could not disagree with you more. Guy is brilliant, always a step ahead, and stands up for his people. Big reason why Florida is thriving. He’ll win reelection in a landslide. America’s governor!

First EF3 in history for PA. Now, there have been many F3s, most recently in 2004, but this is the first since we went to the enhanced Fujita Scale. Bit of semantics but still cool.

Damn, I mean, this was good, real good.

Some more from Nanty Glo, look out for those tipping port'o'johns! 0612 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N NANTY-GLO 40.48N 78.84W 07/29/2021 CAMBRIA PA EMERGENCY MNGR BLEACHERS AND A PORTABLE TOILET WHERE KNOCKED OVER AT BLACKLICK VALLEY HIGH SCHOOL.

ha very nice, the 'ol high terrain

I ended up with a monster total of .03" yesterday *yawn*, but it seems like parts of the eastern and western sides of the state saw some severe activity. Check out this video from Blacklick High School near Nanty Glo. I have a buddy who went there.

Yep we called it. What looked to be a day with a lot of severe potential really turned into a dud around here, although we had a feeling that could be the case relatively early this morning. I’ll check the gauge in the morning but can’t imagine I got more than a few hundredths. Looks like the extreme eastern and western parts of the state got in on some wild action though. Just an odd weather day all the way around.

Yeah we certainly could get split here by the main tranches of rain, and to be honest, that's what much of the guidance had been hinting at the last 12 hours or so. Just not my summer, guess that's what I deserve for choosing a handle name of Snowman *shrug*

Yeah this doesn't scream much severe potential to me, but I've been wrong before....

Yes you really can, it's subtle but it's there. Also a thicker band moving in from the west though. You can also clearly see the multiple layers of clouds moving in all directions, evidence of the directional shear that's in place.

Agreed, many of the metrics are in place, and solidly so. This has almost all the ingredients you look for. With that said, you'd still like to see a little sun at some point to ripen things up.

Sure is but if you put it in motion it's actually thickening not thinning. Tough to say how we'll look in a few hours.

As others have mentioned, cloud cover only seems to be thickening, hmmmmmmm, we shall see but the visible satellite in motion is not overly promising......

Could be an action packed day for some. Others have pointed out SPC's stance. CTP has some interesting thoughts as well....... The conditional risk of severe storms ramps up this afternoon and evening (2-8PM most likely timing) with SPC upgrading the south- central and southeast zones to an Enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5). The upper pattern will be characterized by a broad trough/cyclonic flow aloft with embedded MCV translating east- southeastward from the southern Great Lakes through the northern Mid Atlantic region. 29/00Z HREF mean shows 40-50kt deep-layer shear profiles in place later this afternoon with 0-3km SRH values 200-400+ m2s2. The main uncertainty driving the conditional nature of this potentially significant severe wx event continues to center around the degree of destablization, as cloud cover from upstream convective complex may limit heating/instability to some extent. The latest HRRR and other CAMs show pcpn from this feature reaching into the western zones between 15-17Z. Assuming sufficient CAPE can be realized in the warm sector, the environment will be supportive of some supercells that may evolve into bowing structures as storms track northwest to southeast during the afternoon and evening. While the primary threat appears to be damaging winds and possibly some hail, low level hodographs are supportive of an isolated tornado risk especially in the vicinity of sfc warm front over south- central PA. This risk is highlighted by a 5% tornado probability. MaxT will be a few to several degrees lower vs. yesterday in the low 70s north to lower 80s south. The relatively cooler temps combined with advection of rich low level moisture (near-70F dewpoint air) suggests lower LCL heights which are an important delineator for tornadoes in central PA. Despite PW values around 1-1.5 inches supporting brief heavy downpours/rain rates, recent dryness in the past 7 days along with fairly progressive storm motions should confine flooding risk to marginal (level 1 out of 4) with the highest probs/lowest FFG in the NC/NE mtns. The severe threat should end by 8PM give or take, but showers could linger in spots for most of the night. MinT will trend a few degrees warmer overall with the largest positive 24hr deltas over the middle and upper Susquehanna Valley. Post-frontal NW flow should align low clouds upslope along the western Alleghenies into early Friday morning.