Mount Joy Snowman

Sitting at 32/21. Very light snow has just commenced here. Should be a fun couple of hours.

Pocono Pines. Winter Heaven.

It’s saying I cant post a photo from my phone bc its too big? 1.95MB limit or something. Im new to this forum anyone have any advice?

Update from up here in the Poconos at 2,000 ft: It has not stopped snowing for one second since we arrived yesterday afternoon. Hard to say what has fallen but gotta be at least 6” on top of the already wicked snowpack. Lake completely frozen over. Winter wonderland up here.

Poconos travel update: 222 in Lancaster was fine but in Berks Co it remains untouched. Multiple vehicles off the road. Precip has stopped. Onward.

Predominantly sleet mixture here at the moment with flakes still mixing in, visibility way up. 1.2" since my last report at 9am, 3.2" total. Heading up towards the Poconos this afternoon, will try and chime in from the road (don't worry, I'm not driving ha). Good luck to all.

These next couple hours are the business for York/Lanc......

9am observation: 24/17 with moderate snow picking up in intensity, visibility approaching 1/4 mile. 2" total with heavier returns on the way, hoping to avoid sleet but know it's inevitable.

7am update: 23/15 with light to moderate snow falling. .8” accumulation thus far, everything covered.

Good night gents and good luck to everyone in the morning. Latest from Horst....... (1/2) This is one of those winter systems where just 25 - 50 miles will make a big difference in what accumulates. As I see things this evening, the system is stringing out under a rocking upper-level jet w/ less-than-expected right entrance region support. The result may be... (2/2) ...a slight southward shift, perhaps less icy mix (here in Lanco), and a slight reduction in max snowfall amounts. Need to wait & see where the best (narrow) snow band sets up in the AM...but for now no reason to change my earlier idea of 4-8" (Rt 30 north) and 2-5" south.

Good stuff, reminds me of the least squares method for determining a line of best fit in statistics.

This is a great point. So often now a significant portion of the AFDs is just a rundown of the latest model guidance. Don't get me wrong, I still like reading them and enjoy the technical aspects but their deference to modelology is much more noticeable these days.

It would certainly eliminate some of the back and forth nature of this hobby. The highs and lows come at you quick when you live and die by each model run.

Truer words have never been spoken.

Thank you that is what I was trying to post haha, literally staring at the new one on my screen but then when I go to copy and paste the image an older version shows up, who knows...

Haven't seen this posted yet, updated at 1:35.....looks like a slight reduction in totals if I recall correctly from the previous version.... uuuuuhhhhh for whatever reason when I try to copy the recent one it's pasting the older version from 7:35 last night, not sure why......

Euro continues the drying trend I alluded to earlier with the GFS and RGEM. The primary Low is just, blah, doesn't pack enough punch. Even when it hits the coast there's nothing remotely resembling any type of bombing out or real intensification. But hey, should still be a solid few hours in the morning.

I would love to alleviate your concerns but I'm having some of the same worries myself. Let's just put it this way, we should be in for a nice thump of snow sometime between roughly 7am-Noon before we have to even consider worrying about mixing, or at least that's the hope ha. Yes the heaviest rates may remain below the border but we should still be in for some nice amounts. Just enjoy whatever comes during the morning and the rest is gravy. The weather gods will have the final say, as they always do.

Yes but I'm afraid to ask why haha

Whiskey ginger out this way, double of course.

Lucky for you interest rates are low

GFS likes the longer duration event lasting into Friday but is weaker with the front end thump and keeps the heaviest rates south of the border. Just generally drier overall. The Rgem has been on the drier side as well, relatively speaking of course. But still, hmmmmmm

You aint kiddin. Although the MA folks would argue they have it worse and they wouldn't be wrong haha. You guys are in a good spot out there, longitude seems to matter more than latitude more times than not around here and obviously with anything having a coastal element to it. Not to mention your extra elevation never hurts the cause. Elevation is everything, so they say, eeeerrrrrr, someone says it, maybe it's just me ha.

Yes great analogy.

Yeah probably just run to run model noise but a fine line indeed. Agree with being fine with where we sit and letting the chips fall as they may. I'm at a low elevation spot here near route 30 and the sleet monster almost always bites me. Typically, once Lancaster City flips I know I'm toast within ten minutes or so. Just part of the deal around here more times than not anymore but a boy can hope!