Mount Joy Snowman

It wouldn't be a proper storm if I didn't bring up the RAP haha. Behold!

Canadian is still drunk but also joins the shift-west club. Keep that westward movement coming.

GFS is again a monster and perhaps even more so towards Lanc but my goodness that cutoff....

ICON gets tucked and joins the party. Big changes and big totals.

The extreme cutoff many are worried about exemplified to the max on the FV3, with 20" in eastern Lancaster County and 5" in Etown.

NAM would be historic for southcentral NJ. I continue to believe my buddy in Hammonton is in the bullseye.

NAM looks phenomenal through 48.

The HRRR paints a very solid picture, with a widespread 3-6" across our area by the end of its run at 7pm Sunday just as the coastal is ramping up. Next 12 hours would be fun to view. On to the NAM.

0z HRRR with a much better depiction through the early part of its run.

It's a totally fair concern. I would add that mixing issues through the first part of the storm have showed up on a number of models. The surface temps are marginal and really don't crash until the coastal gets ramping, so the question becomes how much qpf do we lose on the front end to mix or an inability to efficiently accumulate on surfaces. All valid concerns. Bottom line, as you said, be prepared for anything. Isn't that what makes this all fun anyway? Cheers!

Man what a score this would be for the GFS.

Yes it got real foggy real quick, even before sundown. I assume a warm air advection fog moving over the cold wet ground and remains of the snowpack?

Alright boys, what's the skinny? Grandma came over to watch the kids and the wife and I went out for lunch and some drinks. Even played some backgammon at the bar haha. Anyone partake? I've been teaching my wife. Things still ticking west? I'm going to dial in for 0z.

Yeah, AI was a good bit juicer with the qpf.

It seems like southcentral Jersey is going to be the place to be for this bad boy. I have a friend who lives in Hammonton, NJ and feel like that could be ground zero. A general 4-6" for our forum would be a nice event with some boom potential for those of us in eastern areas like Lancaster.