Mount Joy Snowman

Aaaaand there it is, I can rest easy now, as snow is officially falling at KMJS with a temp of 33. Night all.

mPING reports of snow falling in parts of Berks and Lehigh Counties. That area could actually see a couple inches.

Temp has fallen to 37 here as rainfall has surpassed 1/8". Radar is blossoming as rain picks up in intensity. I'll be damned if I'm going to bed tonight before seeing some flakes fall through the night sky.

Very light rain has broken out here. I think I see a transition to wet snow sometime between ~8-11pm. Putting the O/U at .3". It may not lay on most surfaces, but it will have no problem laying on the pack

Yep. Should still be fun to see the battle this evening as wet flakes try to work their way into the rain. Just as warm air aloft always seems to arrive ahead of schedule, I've often found that the rain to snow backend transition tends to happen quicker than shown as well. If you squint at the 12z suite you can see some ever so slight improvements in this regard. I just want to see some white in the sky at night as I sip an old fashioned. At this point that will be a win in my book ha.

Low of 28. Looks like the lower level warmth will win out with the column too slow to cool to the surface. Perhaps a slushy half inch on the tail end. Then we finally lose our pack this week. MDT and LNS both topped out at 48 yesterday. Onward.

At 18z the HRRR still isn't on board and the NAMs now keep things mostly all rain. Guess we'll find out tomorrow ha.

Haha I was actually going to chime in to say the same, that you are probably juuuust outside of the blue dot.

Yeah it will take some rates for sure but that's what some of the meso's are showing down our way. You are right though, what's being depicted as snowfall on these maps will surely not amount to that much on the ground with the marginal temps in place. Heck, I was scouring through skew-T's earlier and we really would be walking the tight rope through the lower part of the column, with a wet snow and a surface right around freezing. Could be fun though.

Would likely start as a light rain sometime during the mid afternoon and transition to a steady snow during the evening hours.

GFS holds steady with a few inches for southern parts of the forum. Slightly less qpf than prior runs.

RRFS, FV3, and HRW sisters are all on board for a few inches across much of the forum. This is getting interesting.

NAM comes around in a big way. Not saying this verifies but man would this come as a surprise to many people.

Low of 23. I decided to check in on MU’s twitter feed since he basically mocked the possibility of anything happening here earlier in the week and sure enough he has been ranting about the models again the last couple of days. He is really going through it this winter.

Low of 18. My pack has barely shrunk a millimeter this week. Tomorrow should do some work though.