TimB

Nothing I love more than a dry-ish frontal passage with slowly falling temps and dewpoints behind it.

I’d watch the weekend cold front. Large swaths of severe potential from the SPC as that thing moves east.

Not sure I can agree with you on Matheson. He had as many lapses that cost us goals, games, and eventually the series as Letang and Marino did. I thought the Ruhwedel/Friedman pairing played a solid series, but they’re of course role players. So maybe ultimately it wasn’t Crosby or Jarry, but actually the Dumoulin injury that really screwed us. Regardless, a fourth straight 1st round exit and all 3 of the teams in this city are officially in rebuilding mode. Would have been nice to enter this dark age without already having a 4 year streak of not advancing in the playoffs already under our belts.

Let’s take this thread back to its roots and throw in a hockey complaint. Same crap, different year. Sullivan needs to go.

Hard to tell how that plays out. GFS has been consistent in its depiction of a hurricane blasting across Florida in that timeframe so that could have some say in our weather in PA if it materializes. Euro does look quite chilly with that system coming out of the Midwest and tracking across the lower Great Lakes.

The 95 was 61 on the next run, lol.

Might be a stretch, but daily records are 92-93 in that timeframe. We’ve set daily record lows on 11 different May days since the last time we set a daily record high in May.

I’m certainly not arguing that it makes it better, I’m with you that it looks wonky as all hell. It’s the Susquehanna River, not Lake Superior. Just relaying info about how the ASOS obs are calculated.

Sure, it’s the operational CMC at 234 hours, but:

MDT’s official high was 80, so the 81 was definitely a rounding of a Celsius number. I learned some new stuff about how this ASOS stuff works yesterday (or at least how it worked in 1998, when the below was published, and it’s possible it hasn’t changed). The 5-min obs are actually averages of five 1-min obs. It’s described in section 3.1.2 of the link below. https://www.weather.gov/media/asos/aum-toc.pdf

That’s the Celsius thing. For example, 76F = 24.4C, which rounds to 24C (75.2F) and shows up as 75. Likewise, 78F = 25.6C, rounds to 26C (78.8F) and shows up as 79.

For contrast, every 5-min obs at PIT since 2:50 has been 81. Every single one of them.

Still, even if you take the 75 to be a 76 that was rounded to the nearest degree Celsius and the 81 to be an 80 that was rounded, you’re looking at a 4 degree increase in 9 minutes in the late afternoon of a sunny day. It’s odd.

It looks like Monday was day 206 without hitting 80. So Tuesday, Wednesday, but not Thursday would make 208.

Looks like MDT did just record a 5-min obs of 81, so the high will be at least 80 and your streak ends at 208.

With Celsius to Fahrenheit rounding that could be 77->78->74 but that’s still suspect.

Record is 239 in 1892-1893. That would be the long shot to end all long shots. The record you’re legitimately angling for isn’t the consecutive days record, but the first 80 record, which was 5/23/1893. 220 will get you there.

Was just looking at that this morning, remembering how crazy I thought your 210-220 prediction sounded. Today is day 206 at MDT. Sure, there’s a chance of a day overperforming but the current forecast does not show MDT quite getting to 80 this week or weekend. There are 10 other years that have made it this far into May without a single 80. Another week and it’ll be down to 5.

Western Atlantic troughing pushes your ridge too far west to make it hot here. Still, slightly above normal temps with sun would be a good break from this pattern. Plenty of time still for big heat if you want it.

That’s the real problem is this pattern is funneling warm air up from the gulf, but if the ridge axis sets up where you want it to, I think we can squeeze out a mostly rain-free period. I think 90 is a reach but it’s within the range of plausible solutions from what I’ve seen on the models and ensembles. Especially the Canadian, but that might be overblown. The other weird thing is, as much of a warm month as May was in the 2010s, we have not set a daily record high on any day in May since 1993.

Next week looking hotter and hotter. Might @Ahoffget his first 90 early this year?

I saw that lol. Went to see if there was any new content on there to laugh at and all I saw was someone talking about him getting suspended. What got him suspended?

Nice to start the day with a good thunderstorm or two.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=Kmdt It does have that Celsius to Fahrenheit rounding thing on the 5-min obs, so you do have to be careful.

MDT’s highest 5-min reading was 64, so the high will almost certainly be 64 or 65.