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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    We just have to accept the fact that this just isn’t going to be our winter. If we get a lucky break and catch a storm or two that turns an abysmal winter into a just kinda crappy one, great. If not, then hopefully we can nickel and dime our way out of being historically bad.
  2. TimB
    Indeed, snowing pretty good here. NWS didn’t seem too keen on this being a snow event, but it’s working out. Not much sticking to the warm ground.
  3. TimB
    Could we pick up a nice inch or so tonight or is this going to be a freezing drizzlefest?
  4. TimB
    Whole thing has been pretty meh today, despite the lake being wide open. We just can’t get the right parameters for anything to perform this winter.
  5. TimB
    You mean the term that’s forbidden (lol) in the regional weather forums here?
  6. TimB
    NWS has updated the grids from snow showers to “snow likely” for several hours this afternoon/evening.
  7. TimB
    Hard to take the later one seriously, it’s 9 days away and has positive 500 height anomalies up against well below normal temperatures, so it has mixing in areas with single digit temps.
  8. TimB
    Euro seems to give us our chances. A couple inches today, a minor system mid next week, and some weird looking system at the end of its run.
  9. TimB
    February is a short month, so spring is only 34 days away. And our snow total is 11.4” but probably a majority of the county has received less than half that.
  10. TimB
    If by astronomical winter you mean astronomical(ly bad) then I agree.
  11. TimB
    I’ll believe it when it goes away for more than 4 days.
  12. TimB
    Someone has to play the KPIT role. But yeah, I have no idea why this storm that we knew was going to be a fail pushed me over the edge.
  13. TimB
    Even when it’s over we’ll still have a permanent southeast ridge. That feature is set in stone for decades.
  14. TimB
    Once one model shows bad it’s over. Every. Single. Time.
  15. TimB
    Well I mean that’s the ensemble, not the long range operational model.
  16. TimB
    18z GFS proves the 12z wasn’t just a one off and still has us locked in an endless torch hellscape with cutter after cutter instead of what is supposed to be a cold pattern. Ensemble is on board too. Next Saturday now has positive height anomalies here. Unbelievable.
  17. TimB
    A quick calculation seems to indicate that we should finish January about +8 on temps and be in the running with 1998 for 2nd warmest January since official obs moved to the airport. Don’t think we can catch 2006.
  18. TimB
    The snow futility record for Pittsburgh is 8.8” in 1918-19, so we’re out of the running for that. What we do still have a shot at is the modern snow futility record of 16.6” in 1973-74 if you don’t trust the records from over a century ago. There’s also the 17.2” in 1990-91, 21.7” in 1988-89, and 22.4” in 2019-20 to round out the list of worst winters in modern history.
  19. TimB
    Sunday-Monday put PIT up to 10.3” so officially no, but I’m sure there are plenty of places in the county that are below 10” or maybe even below 5”. Looks like the NWS obs for today is going to be 1.1”, so we’d be at 11.4 officially.
  20. TimB
    Big picture, that’s a good way of looking at it. This has probably been the most frustrating winter of the 21st century, and that includes 19-20.
  21. TimB
    Meh, too little too late unless it’s the 2-3” today should have been. Anything less than 2”, even 1.9”, tomorrow and this event is still an epic failure to me. Oh, and NWS suggests it could STILL, ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM be warm enough for rain to mix in tomorrow afternoon.
  22. TimB
    Once the permanent southeast ridge returns on Saturday, it remains over our area in some way, shape or form for the remainder of the 12z GFS run.
  23. TimB
    This winter is over, not that it ever started. Today was our last chance. Unless I see something that proves otherwise, the southeast ridge is a permanent fixture of our climo now and will be for years and decades to come.
  24. TimB
    Anyone remember when the first weekend of Feb was supposed to be the cold part of our pattern? This failure of a winter rolls on.
  25. TimB
    Yeah, I shouldn’t be mad. This turned out exactly how everyone but the NWS expected it would, and exactly according to our climo. On to the next disappointment.
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