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TimB

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  1. TimB
    Well here we go, Euro slows down the mid-week front and keeps even me warm on Wednesday (upper 70s), then a short period of slightly below normal temps before bouncing back to average or slightly above. CPC map and discussion for week 3-4 doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that our last 80 degree day occurs during the current stretch either. GFS is waffling (latest run is prolonged cool temps, but I’ve seen both).
  2. TimB
    Warmest day until at least April incoming?
  3. TimB
    The Euro did have some good stuff too, like upper 50s/low 60s a couple days next week. 18z GFS turned my 38 into a 73 and has another ridge going, but seems to be a progressive pattern.
  4. TimB
    It was fantastic indeed. My dog is old and I worry with any day that is 80+ with humidity, so walking him at lunchtime is made much easier with weather like today.
  5. TimB
    Turns out we did get to 80.
  6. TimB
    Sure enough, we have managed at least 78 so far.
  7. TimB
    Holy crap, this opens up a whole new world for me. I’m going to spend way too much time in there.
  8. TimB
    PM me if you want to know more. I can see what I have bookmarked that might be useful to you without cluttering up this thread.
  9. TimB
    Depends on what you’re looking for honestly. I can manipulate it pretty well to figure out, say, what are the highest and lowest September temperatures ever recorded at one particular location, but I’ve never used any of the multi-station tools or anything. I’m no expert, just a guy who likes stats.
  10. TimB
    You can access a lot of it using the parameters of your choice at https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org for whatever NWS forecast office and location you choose.
  11. TimB
    That’s 2 GFS runs in less than a day with snow in PA.
  12. TimB
    That’s more than we have at PIT (31 on 9/19/1959).
  13. TimB
    Gives you an idea of how ridiculous the pattern would have to be to squeeze out a T in September. It’s really not plausible (but again, it’s happened once in Pittsburgh). As for records, verbatim that gives us a high of about 43 at PIT on 9/29. We have 5 September days in our records with highs in the 40s, none since 1950, and none with a high below 46. MDT has done it once: a high of 48 on 9/28/1984.
  14. TimB
    We’re talking about a low center that retrogrades from Scranton to Traverse City, MI in 36 hours.
  15. TimB
    Indeed, not counting on a cut-off retrograding low.
  16. TimB
    Clown map time:
  17. TimB
    Verbatim, would probably be a T at PIT. Temp at 18z on 9/29 is 38.
  18. TimB
    540 line is down to TN/GA line.
  19. TimB
    GFS in mid-winter form already:
  20. TimB
    I think this adjusts down another notch with this afternoon’s release.
  21. TimB
    Has kept PIT from getting past 64 so far. Achieving 15 more degrees this afternoon to get to the forecast high will be difficult with September sun angle.
  22. TimB
    Also hope this fog holds on as long as possible and cuts into our high temp today.
  23. TimB
    It’s definitely been better than what I was dreading. The humidity has been brutal, but even that broke last night, if only for 12 hours or so. Don’t think I’ll complain too much about a stretch in September where we only get into the low 80s (maybe mid-80s a day or two if we overperform). PBZ’s one forecaster that actually writes good discussions had this to say:
  24. TimB
    All of the models seem to be on board with that mid-week frontal passage. Overnight runs were exactly what I wanted to see.
  25. TimB
    Hey, isn’t September 29th pretty much the same sun angle as....the sun angle of the Blizzard of 93?
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