bobbutts
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Everything posted by bobbutts
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no, and hopefully that's the last we see of his crap.. -
Taking the under on 10-14" with 18" locally here. Seems like only the NAM supports those kinds of numbers. I'll be rooting against my forecast though, rather have the snow than be right.
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18z NAM actually shaves off some qpf up this way vs. 12z but it's still a big hit. Euro really not good though. Seems like a really hard forecast for C. NH. I can't decide what to expect yet.
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This (experimental) graphic from GYX showing extreme uncertainty in the potential.. I'm looking at 0-18" Despite the rather silly range of values there I think this is an excellent product.
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Start time for Boston?
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Improving appearance on satellite.
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This was sort of a backdoor hit for San Juan. Even though they were in the right front, the storm had to go 30+ miles over hilly terrain before reaching San Jose. I don't know how to begin trying to calculate how much, but that will definitely temper the winds some.
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I don't see any improvement on the reasoning above in the more recent posts. You can predict that it is definitely OTS at this point and have a roughly 80% chance of being right.
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Yeah, see the post I made while you were making that one. I stand by my original post though. Per the damage wheel from the NWS 175 is twice as bad as 160. You REALLY don't want to get far into cat 5 territory for winds when it's the difference between partial and total failure of the structures where people are sheltering. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/images/saff_wheel.pdf
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NW eyewall in the bigger eye looking very formidable. A large swath of PR looks to face extreme winds.
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Every MPH counts extra at this point. Big difference even though the 160 is still incredibly bad.
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Barring a change in direction it looks to make a close run at San Juan.
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Outer ring should pass over St. Croix. Unlucky timing for them for it to be strong at this point. Looks like two healthy eyewall features to me.
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The problem with mountainous terrain is that there can be severe flash flooding and mudslides where they drain.
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No much wiggle room for St. Croix. I'm getting about 306 degree movement from radar.
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Cloud tops really cooling per goes-16. Looks extremely imposing even with the less filled in NW side.
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Probably more importantly for PR, if Maria were to track over St. Croix it would likely also pass well East of San Juan. If Maria stays on the current trajectory the inner circulation will miss St. Croix to the South/West or just brush it.
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Far less mountainous, unlikely to be disruptive.
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Last 5 hours and change from TJUA radar.
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This has to be about worst case winds for Dominica with the eye appearing to hit directly through the most populated areas. I imagine that waves/surge and freshwater flooding will all also be pretty dire.
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Looks to be tightening as it comes ashore (accounting for parallax)
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How much disruption to either the structure or trajectory can we expect assuming the core passes over Dominica with it's rugged topology? There are mountains up to 4700' there. I wonder if there will be a jog as it gets closer. I assume a weakly steered storm is more likely to have it's path affected by the local geography than one under strong steering? Also with a more compact core it may be more response to those effects vs. a larger storm?
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Looking at the island on Google Earth the one promising thing is they seem to build with hurricanes in mind. There are relatively few low lying dwellings and the population center is on the SW side of the island. Looks nothing like some of the US where large neighborhoods are placed on barrier islands with 10' or less of elevation. Of course a powerful storm rapidly intensifying as it strikes them is going to be devastating regardless of all that.
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wow, GFS keeps ramping up the qpf and now the NAM with the snow.. Can't look away from this one yet.
