mannynyc
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Everything posted by mannynyc
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Trends are good but things still need to go perfectly for the City to really get in. This is by far our best chance of the year.
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Long range NAM is a joke.
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240 hour Canadian bomb? At this point, why not.
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Not ideal but not terrible on the 0z GEFS
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The low over NYC screams rain for the Metro
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18z 3k NAM is signficantly colder in the City compared to 12z. Someone could be in for a surprise, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
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Beautiful. Someone should frame it.
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GFS is the only outlier and it always seems to be overamped. Oh well. On to the next storm
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Way better looks from the GEFS compared to 12Z
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Dynamic cooling. It never got below 33 the storm a few weeks ago and we still got two inches.
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NYC's best shot looks to be early Saturday morning when the coastal low starts to take over. Depending on the model, rain should become snow in the city between 3 and 6AM, continuing until 10AM. This shift should happen a couple hours earlier in New Jersey, Upstate NY and Connecticut.
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CMC has same trend as the GFS
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GFS moves the low north east. That allows the city to get into heavier snow bands late in the storm.
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6z GFS ensembles. NYC right at the edge of a moderate snowfall
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I wouldn’t put too much faith in mesoscale models this far out but there certainly is an increasing chance of storm 1 working out.
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Officially .1 inch in Central Park. Surprised they measured anything, there was nothing on the ground in Midtown when I looked at about 5:30AM.
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The NWS likes to be, for good reason, as cautious as possible with their forecasts, especially this far out with nothing close to model consensus. The cold air is certainly an issue, but it’s more fun to be optimistic than pessimistic. We aren’t the NWS. This weekend and next weekend are our bests shots for a moderate snowfall this year, but it is far from a sure thing.
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Ensembles look good. Not everything is going to be a hit this far out. We just want the signal for a strong coastal storm.
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GFS moves north as well
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3k NAM moved north, right over Central Park.
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12z GEFS ensembles for Tuesday
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The GEFS ensembles look really for March 11-17. 9 of the 20 members have signifcant coastal storms.
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12z GFS appears to have moved slightly north, but not a significant change
