SnowenOutThere

Guys come on, its the long range NAM. Might as well use woolly caterpillars to predict the snow. 

Just now, WxUSAF said:

That WAA snow will be a beast. Have fun Sunday afternoon/evening watching that rip, have some drinks and watch football, and go to bed before it flips. Great day!

What I am fully planning to do. Would be an awesome day.

Ripping at DC through 108 then the changeover occurs. Looks better for us.

I say we bring back the troll that acted like some weather god over the summer until he was banned.

GFS rolling out

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I love ya man, but learned myself over the years that the sage-like wisdom coming from the youngest person on the forum doesn't play well. Usually I found that I was posting things like this to reassure myself, lol.

Yeah I guess, but after already getting some decent snow last week it is a lot easier for me to just sort of let this one go. I will always hope we get the best storm we can and be a little upset if this storm misses. At the same time it is pretty unlikely we see nothing from this and at least see some snow fall which is the most important part for me. If we see an all rain storm I will be pretty upset though.

Even with the GFS solution we still would get a decent front end thump and some heavy snow, not to mention the storm is still 4ish days out. We will be fine

Only DC can still get screwed with a good low track.

We got to admit we just don’t know what is going to happen with this storm yet. Currently it could be a cutter or a southeastern exclusive, no need to lose sleep over it… yet.

Yes

I find that the storm being pushed back makes the forecast even more difficult due to the storm being 5/6  days out while yesterday due to it being more saturday/sunday it was also 5/6 days out. Just something to keep in mind

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The hype machine horse has left the barn.   Like the birth of a baby, once it's out you can't put it back in.  

It was at the moment he knew he messed up

I don't think it is wise to get to invested in this storm yet. Just 24 hours ago we thought this had little to no shot of going up the coast, now we are worried about to much amplification. Really shows how this pattern is a little too complex for he models to handle well at range.

CMC precip map at hour 132 

Goes up the coast for the 12z

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I love how TT just completely skips hours 102 through 144 for the ICON 

The best part is that the snowfall map still works from that time, just not the precip map

Just now, Interstate said:

I bet the GFS is even further west.

How much because I don't know if I would make that bet

55 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

On top of the 6z and eps, Check out the 6z euro control...was about to destroy DC

Can the GFS win again?!

 

Im a simple guy, do you have the funny precip map instead?

After reading the past 4 pages of this thread I can say that this hobby is amazing.

Mine would probably be the midnight supercell over the summer associated with the hurricane remnants. Also had another good thunderstorm with trees down. The wind storm you mentioned too. Not really the weather but the cicadas were interesting.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS REALLY likes that threat around the 20th. That’s the one the Gfs turned into the BECS the other day. 

You got some maps for us?

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

12z eps keeps hope alive for this weekend 

When was the hope about to die?

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Looking at individual ensemble member runs is like window shopping. You can salivate and wonder what its like to have it, but you never will because you can't afford it. 

Yes, But it still releases the all important dopamine 

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Agreed!!!

P13 looks fun

35 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nope.   H5 better, but still flattened/kicked/smooshed/regal beagled

I have never hated an inanimate object more than I hate this ocean low.   I'm legit inconsolable.  

Thank God none of the output today will likely be the final outcome. 

You're right, it's going to go even lower. Sub 930 or bust.