SnowenOutThere

The next super long range storm on the Euro is looking intense ... not sure if thats intense good or bad yet.

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Sorry folks, I lied

Main issue was that the southwest causing the storm was just way stronger on this run, if that was even a little bit weaker it probably would've turned out far better. At least thats what I saw

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Writing is on the wall. The trend continues to depress.. Unless we see another trend, I think we have to just accept it! Now looking for the ripple effects on the longer range. 

 

“The writing is on the wall” before the 12z runs yesterday most people thought this was a long shot! I’m all for panicking but this thing is still 7 days away no trend is at the point where it’s impossible to trend back. That said if we continue to see more north west tracks through tomorrow and beyond then it’s pretty much over. 

1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

They Know!!!

This is going to be this seasons shit the blinds 

Bro whoever has been cooking with these past three gfs runs need to show up more often

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Ripping snow at hour 183

Either way the gfs accomplishes my goal for a winter of seeing snow covered grass so I’ll take it 

19 minutes ago, snowfan said:

On the bright side, you’ve lived through our snowiest winter ever (to date) and not far removed from a 3 yr stretch where Dulles (closest to you?) averaged 30”. That’s not too common. 

Considering I don’t remember either I’m not sure if I’m really lucky for that or unlucky then again thank god I missed out on being part of the iPad kid horde. 

19 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Damn. How young are you? BWIs current 10 year average is 16.7”, which is certainly not the lowest 10 yr avg in its reporting history. 10 year stretches in the 40/50s, 70s, 80s/90s all had lower averages. 

Well I’m old enough to get my license (I’m too scared to drive though) but not an adult yet. Putting me at the fun spot where the past 7 years of nothing winters makes up my memory of winters! That’s why I like PSU so much because he doesn’t sugarcoat the shit winters I’ve seen my whole life, you need to see our new climo for what it is not what it was. 

13 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Every decade is different,  i  dont really go by any 10 year averages.  I go by the typical 30 year

I’m not anywhere close to 30 so what happened in 2002 doesnt matter much to me personally 

27 minutes ago, IronTy said:

"Just be glad you got to live through an epic period for snow storms"

Nice that’s true for everyone else, just another thing robbed from my generation … that said if we’re talking about climate changes for my future there’s a lot more pressing issues than decreased snowfall

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

agreed, although the 7th is low probability it’s still worth the most focus

I just feel like tracking anything no matter how long shot is better than going back to pattern change tracking

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Cutter > fropa > cold/dry 

What I’m interested in is what happens after

So we are waiting on a pattern change … two days into a pattern change? I feel like we should focus on the two “long shots” before pattern chasing again.

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

sorry PSU--this is not a long range model win. No model had this

“This is not a long range model win” He types as he sends a long range model output …

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

where is the cold air?????????????????????????

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

the canadien is worse

The CFS stole it all

9 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Are you actually Mark Margavage?

who? my post was a joke to lighten the mood

Guys stop panicking CFS just had its best run of the season! Seriously if anyone needs their digital snowfall/cold I'd highly recommend checking this run out, instead of crapping up the thread with negativity *cough* Ji. Its got a snowstorm with temps in the single digits and qdf of .7 then lows in the negative teens across the area.

Just now, Rhino16 said:

Just so I’m keeping track correctly, SER is short for southeast ridge I’m assuming?

Yes it can also be called by many expletives if you’d like.

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

PSU’s backyard might be a better place for a ski resort than Liberty

Whitetail looks the same too … not a great time for the ski resorts 

Thought I’d post it in banter to expose it more please weigh in if you have thoughts 

My dad tasked me with figuring out the best snowfall spot within 4 hours of Nova for a potential vacation home and figured this was the best place to ask! Requirements are high snowfall (he’s a weenie too) some sort of summer activity and within like 45 minutes of a ski resort. Already figured someplace like deep creek or seven springs would be good for this but any thoughts are appreciated. Ik some posters do have houses out there so lmk what you think. 

30 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

volcanic activity, sun spots and astroid strikes are all capable of changing the earths weather patterns.

I feel like we are leaving something out … must just be my imagination!  

5 minutes ago, TSG said:

i'm going to disagree pretty strongly on this point. The boundary layer up to ~900mb is torched from 2.5 days of Southwest/South flow starting on the 31st. Yeah these kind of storms can bomb out and make up for less than ideal temps, but there's no real cold for the storm to pull down from the N/NW. The panel below says it all, >0C 850s all the way to Maine... 45-50F surface coming in at 20kts off the Atlantic over NJ/DE. That's just not a recipe for snow in the Mid-Altantic in my experience, bombing cyclone or not.

Okay what about this one where the low is further south and 850s aren’t torched?

Ik a lot of people are focused on 6z GFS output near the 3rd for good reason but it also shows the wave near the 7th as a string costal that’s a little too far south. Even if we take the GFS output for the 3rd verbatim we still have chances later that week! Agree it is concerning though …

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Don’t hold us in suspense!

I got you 

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Wooo baby, GFS brings some Christmas magic!!

Temps in the low 20s too