SnowenOutThere

I find that the storm being pushed back makes the forecast even more difficult due to the storm being 5/6  days out while yesterday due to it being more saturday/sunday it was also 5/6 days out. Just something to keep in mind

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The hype machine horse has left the barn.   Like the birth of a baby, once it's out you can't put it back in.  

It was at the moment he knew he messed up

I don't think it is wise to get to invested in this storm yet. Just 24 hours ago we thought this had little to no shot of going up the coast, now we are worried about to much amplification. Really shows how this pattern is a little too complex for he models to handle well at range.

CMC precip map at hour 132 

Goes up the coast for the 12z

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I love how TT just completely skips hours 102 through 144 for the ICON 

The best part is that the snowfall map still works from that time, just not the precip map

Just now, Interstate said:

I bet the GFS is even further west.

How much because I don't know if I would make that bet

55 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

On top of the 6z and eps, Check out the 6z euro control...was about to destroy DC

Can the GFS win again?!

 

Im a simple guy, do you have the funny precip map instead?

After reading the past 4 pages of this thread I can say that this hobby is amazing.

Mine would probably be the midnight supercell over the summer associated with the hurricane remnants. Also had another good thunderstorm with trees down. The wind storm you mentioned too. Not really the weather but the cicadas were interesting.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS REALLY likes that threat around the 20th. That’s the one the Gfs turned into the BECS the other day. 

You got some maps for us?

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

12z eps keeps hope alive for this weekend 

When was the hope about to die?

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Looking at individual ensemble member runs is like window shopping. You can salivate and wonder what its like to have it, but you never will because you can't afford it. 

Yes, But it still releases the all important dopamine 

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Agreed!!!

P13 looks fun

35 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nope.   H5 better, but still flattened/kicked/smooshed/regal beagled

I have never hated an inanimate object more than I hate this ocean low.   I'm legit inconsolable.  

Thank God none of the output today will likely be the final outcome. 

You're right, it's going to go even lower. Sub 930 or bust.

ICON is close to something good but the snowicane is too close to the next storm and crushes it to the south.

We should get 2 weeks of a great pattern, then just an ok one. The problem is, that the first week of the good pattern there is no real potential for storms until Friday. Then next week looks to be messed up from the "wintercane" leading to storms most likely missing.  Something to keep in mind however is the fact that there are still some good outcomes on the table this weekend, and if we get a good outcome then it also opens up next week.

32 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The trof axis is way to far east for our Lattitude.  We need it to get out of the way or it's going to screw up the next few opportunities. 

If it's far enough west to hit New England it's going to screw us for later in the weekend.

So if the Friday storm gets close to hitting it messes up another potential storm around Monday which has more potential? Just don’t really see a reason to root against a potential snowstorm.

Everyone bashing the MLK Friday/Saturday system.

12z Euro: I’m bout to pull a pro gamer move

37 minutes ago, Ji said:

Very frustrating not seeing anything on the models

Just look at yesterday's 12z GFS and pretend its todays

0z GFS with an 384 hour monster.

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The threat window opens +/- Friday IMO. And gets better most likely as we move into the following week. But there’s a ton of shortwaves flying around and the track of any storm is contingent on the conditions prepared by the previous wave. I think it’s possible by Tuesday that we might know if we’re in the game for something in the Friday-Sunday period. Anything after that will take longer. Don’t get too beholden too any individual Op scenario until a storm is within 72-96 hours at most.

Ok thanks, from the way I read winterwxluvr’s post I thought he might mean we have some threats this work week. Thanks for clearing that confusion up.

59 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m thinking we see a system of interest within the next 7 days. I will not be looking beyond that time.

Any ideas to where those threat might pop up, besides MLK weekend.

Snow on Snow