SnowenOutThere

27 minutes ago, IronTy said:

"Just be glad you got to live through an epic period for snow storms"

Nice that’s true for everyone else, just another thing robbed from my generation … that said if we’re talking about climate changes for my future there’s a lot more pressing issues than decreased snowfall

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

agreed, although the 7th is low probability it’s still worth the most focus

I just feel like tracking anything no matter how long shot is better than going back to pattern change tracking

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Cutter > fropa > cold/dry 

What I’m interested in is what happens after

So we are waiting on a pattern change … two days into a pattern change? I feel like we should focus on the two “long shots” before pattern chasing again.

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

sorry PSU--this is not a long range model win. No model had this

“This is not a long range model win” He types as he sends a long range model output …

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

where is the cold air?????????????????????????

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

the canadien is worse

The CFS stole it all

9 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Are you actually Mark Margavage?

who? my post was a joke to lighten the mood

Guys stop panicking CFS just had its best run of the season! Seriously if anyone needs their digital snowfall/cold I'd highly recommend checking this run out, instead of crapping up the thread with negativity *cough* Ji. Its got a snowstorm with temps in the single digits and qdf of .7 then lows in the negative teens across the area.

Just now, Rhino16 said:

Just so I’m keeping track correctly, SER is short for southeast ridge I’m assuming?

Yes it can also be called by many expletives if you’d like.

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

PSU’s backyard might be a better place for a ski resort than Liberty

Whitetail looks the same too … not a great time for the ski resorts 

Thought I’d post it in banter to expose it more please weigh in if you have thoughts 

My dad tasked me with figuring out the best snowfall spot within 4 hours of Nova for a potential vacation home and figured this was the best place to ask! Requirements are high snowfall (he’s a weenie too) some sort of summer activity and within like 45 minutes of a ski resort. Already figured someplace like deep creek or seven springs would be good for this but any thoughts are appreciated. Ik some posters do have houses out there so lmk what you think. 

30 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

volcanic activity, sun spots and astroid strikes are all capable of changing the earths weather patterns.

I feel like we are leaving something out … must just be my imagination!  

5 minutes ago, TSG said:

i'm going to disagree pretty strongly on this point. The boundary layer up to ~900mb is torched from 2.5 days of Southwest/South flow starting on the 31st. Yeah these kind of storms can bomb out and make up for less than ideal temps, but there's no real cold for the storm to pull down from the N/NW. The panel below says it all, >0C 850s all the way to Maine... 45-50F surface coming in at 20kts off the Atlantic over NJ/DE. That's just not a recipe for snow in the Mid-Altantic in my experience, bombing cyclone or not.

Okay what about this one where the low is further south and 850s aren’t torched?

Ik a lot of people are focused on 6z GFS output near the 3rd for good reason but it also shows the wave near the 7th as a string costal that’s a little too far south. Even if we take the GFS output for the 3rd verbatim we still have chances later that week! Agree it is concerning though …

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Don’t hold us in suspense!

I got you 

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Wooo baby, GFS brings some Christmas magic!!

Temps in the low 20s too 

14 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Gfs boutta cook too with the wave after‼️

‼️LET IT COOK ‼️

Just now, Terpeast said:

FWIW 12z op gfs shows a bomb off the coast Jan 3. BL a tad too warm verbatim, but it’s very close. Jan 5-6 wave a bit weaker, but with better cold air. I think I’d rather have it switch places. Weaker wave with marginal air, then bombs away on Jan 5. 

Usual disclaimer: it’s the op gfs so this analysis is mostly just for fun

Gfs boutta cook too with the wave after‼️

3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

LOL did you see the 12z GFS the same storm was 972 275 miles out and on January 3rd.  As I said it will come west it did now split the difference in 12z GFS and 18z GFS and BOOM!

Those are two different waves not the same one. 18z gfs is still out to sea with the energy the 3rd

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Aren’t we smart enough not to engage folks looking for attention in the LR thread?

It’s fine imo if it’s a quick response that doesn’t really give them anything 

2 hours ago, stormy said:

Wow!!  Both the ECM and GEM give much of Augusta County 2 inches of rain during the next 168 hrs..

This Nino is producing. Many Valley folks have been praying for a wet Winter. December is making a solid contribution.

19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I am excited about January, but a couple weeks ago there was some hope of a discrete threat they'd upcoming week, that has since fizzled.  I am sincerely grateful about the upcoming rain this week, we need it....WB 12Z GFS.

Interesting new angle of attack we’re seeing … they’re evolving (devolving?)

22 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Listen, hold off on the storm talk until I return from Mexico on the 2nd.  If you root for a storm and it comes on the 1st, there’s going to be mysterious “server down” messages on the board from like 12/30-1/1. I’m at a bar at DFW waiting on my next flight and Cape’s posts have mitigated the anger that i paid $37 for a shrimp po boy and a beer. I don’t need this stress worrying about 1/1. 
 

Where is Chuck and his fever dream posts when you need them? 

I’m also not here till the 2nd so I’ll slip you an extra 5 bucks if that mysteriously happens. 

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Are you looking at literally anything besides the snow map?

lead poisoning strikes again 

8 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

I teach HS math, like algebra, geometry, calculus, stats, etc.  

In my 21st year.  I have my PhD and should really go teach preservice teachers in college, but I just really love teaching high schoolers.

If (when) I ever need help in my ap pre calc or AB next year I now know who to ask. 

@Ji are you finally happy … for 6 hours at least?