SnowenOutThere

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest weeklies with a more impressive -NAO heading into mid Jan, and not much to say about that Pac look. Just damn. Cold air won't be a problem between the EPO ridge and TPV position.

 

That would be a great overrunning pattern with the Nao locking confluence to our north.

53 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 Dang I hope we get a radar look like this again this winter with a temp about 30F colder

I’d prefer 40 degrees colder to be safe 

Lots of talk about the 27-29th, if we manage to get a good storm track cold air will most likely be a pretty large issue (excluding the transient high idea which is timing we just won't know till later) because good, deep cold isn't really anywhere near us. A pretty good representation of the issue is with the snow depth map of North America, for those wondering, yes ... its worse than 2015. That said, even if it doesn't snow on us that storm would probably help lay down some good snowcover to our north, setting us up for later as the pattern becomes more favorable. 

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Quick search shows no Winter Storm Warning for DC since 2019. Could be wrong.

What about Jan 3rd 2022? 

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think I like what it's doing at 102. CMC-ish but better with the vort positioning, is my trying-to-get-better-at-reading-maps read.

Manages to have a slightly more optimal phase, overall a positive change 

Euro might be more interesting than its 0z run

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I don't know guys...this seems like a longshot to me

This seems like one of those storms that sometimes show up on the models but will pretty much never actually happen. Who knows maybe we'll get lucky, after all it somehow managed to snow this Monday. 

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

zoomed in for the weenies (me).

That local jackpot right over my backyard, LOCK IT IN!!

Really is a shame, it evens stalls out off the Delaware coast! At least STJ won't be the leading cause of failure. 

Being younger and without any real memories of an above average winter, 2015-2016 is pretty fuzzy in my mind, and grown up instead during our fun 7 year period, this is the norm for me. My goal for winter is just enough snow to coat the grass and make everything look pretty, which I've already gotten so this winter is a win no matter what happens in my book. I think some others here are in denial of what our climo has become, just hoping to get a nice winter before college. 

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m frankly a little surprised by the pushback the last two times I simply made an objective observation/analysis of what the guidance showed.  I didn’t make any predictions at all. Actually I’m in record with above normal snow and said I’m sticking to that for now. No one pushed back a couple weeks ago when I observed how the same exact guidance I’m pointing to now looked great. No one had arguments why it didn’t look great or why it wasn’t with looking at. It was just a bunch of likes. Now I do the exact same thing, the only difference is the guidance isn’t so awesome and it’s a bunch of “but this that ie the other” arguments. 

Please continue to make these posts, its annoying how when models move away from good solutions we suddenly switch to trying to ignore them instead of constantly post how good they look. Its nice to have an update as someone who isn't quite on the same analysis level of smarter posters, even if its not what we want to hear. 

12/11/2023 1.3" 

Fun event, dumped snow from 3-4am, everything covered and looked pretty

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

But Arcola is just west of IAD and probably due south of you and got an inch. That said half inch to an inch seems right around the area 

I’m 3-5 miles east of IAD and recorded 1.3 

17 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Over an inch of snow here and main roads totally caved lol, worth staying up for. Huge flakes too 

Up to 1.25 + now, grass is completely covered. If @psuhoffman needs it I’ll cover the inch he needs. 

14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Band is legit. Think the SWS will verify for something measurable. My expectations have been exceeded.

Over an inch of snow here and main roads totally caved lol, worth staying up for. Huge flakes too 

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, I changed my mind and am probably just gonna stay awake as this band pushes west. Looks pretty legit on radar.

I’m more or less slightly east of the highest returns but can definitely say it’s pretty worth it. It’s been two whole years since I’ve seen snow like this. Wonder how long it’ll last

10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just like that and rates picked up, temp dropped to 33.1 and it’s all snow. Out a bit further west than you so this might be the main show imby, snow already trying to stick to cars.

It just kept dropping, now at 32.5 degrees and heavy snow.

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Feels very rate dependent still. Definitely ebbing at the moment IMBY. Had a good jebwalk while it was heavier.

Prob gonna try and wake up again at 4 since that’s what the HRRR has been honking.

Just like that and rates picked up, temp dropped to 33.1 and it’s all snow. Out a bit further west than you so this might be the main show imby, snow already trying to stick to cars.

50 rain 50 very wet snow temp 33.6, with such a low temp it’s odd to see rain mixing so much. 

35.6 and still just plain cold rain

36.0 and still plain rain near Reston. 

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

One of the powers of the Gen Z brain

You and me both, gotta be on the midnight study grindset cause I missed school last week to show up at a swim meet. So I’m in this for the long haul. 

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z 3K NAM

Your map sucks, I like mine a lot better

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Are we discussing the 12k or 3k?  They are significantly different 

Sorry meant to specify 3k compared to its 12z run.

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

NAM looks a mess at 18z which isn’t uncommon it’s bouncy AF. 

Looking at the vorticity and can't really understand why the output is worse, 18z appears (to me) more negatively tilted vs 12z. It also has a further south low and a larger area of snow on the backside of the front. Looks like there is almost a bit of a precip hole but not sure why that is (.5 qdf after changeover vs .7). I know its just one run but I want to understand the process better.