SnowenOutThere

Back to rain, 37. Starting to get nervous about the temps.

More of ice pellets and rain mix now

38 windy, rain with maybe an ice pellet or two.

Thinking IMBY(reston) will get around 6 inches. Currently 45 degrees dropping quickly, windy too.

Remember when we all laughed at the guy who posted the CRAS, it was right.

Further north on 12km NAM 

So for setting up a snowboard I should put a piece of white wood on the lawn tonight then clear every six hours from the start of the snow. Anything I am missing?

For anyone who cares HRRR is further north with the precip sheild with latest run than 18z.

1 minute ago, H2O said:

For @mattie g FCPS closed tomorrow

Yay!

When we starting this thing

Watching the water vapor loop and when should the tilt become negative if we want a snowy outcome? Currently looks mainly neutral if not a bit positive still. 

ninjaed 

• American (GFS): 16-18 inches.
• HRRR: 10-12 inches.
• European: 10-12 inches.
• Canadian: 10 inches.
• High-resolution Canadian: 8-10 inches.
• NAM: 2-4 inches.
• High-resolution NAM: 1-3 inches

Found this from the CWG article and found it funny with the GFS just sitting there.

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I can do a zoom chat 4:30 this afternoon. If there is enough interest I could do another later this evening as the 0z guidance comes in.  I’ll email everyone who signed up the link.
 

If you didn’t sign up but are interested please email me at [email protected] and put Amwx zoom in the subject so I can search/filter and I’ll add you and email the zoom link. 

Hey sent you an email from a new account because I lost the one where you first sent the link a while ago. Please send it to the new one, sorry.

1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

If the 12z GFS verifies LWX ain't going to look good. 

No forecaster/forecast will. 

With my homemade python program which takes in the EURO, GFS, CMC and ICON input then weights each differently (EURO then CMC then GFS then ICON), it spit out a raw output of 6.93 not factoring in melt or anything. Fed the program 7, 15, 5, 0 for amounts so glad to see the output is somewhat realistic. 

If the GFS verified it would be on DC's top ten snowfall list, number 3 if the clown known as the kuchera ratio is right and it only melts .5 of an inch or less.

I bought a new sled so if it fails then you can blame me and @WeatherShak for buying snow related items. 

I started it by just saying "I think the Nams went south".

Sorry about that

I think the NAMs shifted south

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

Watches expanded

lets go

 Seems smart and is about how the mid Atlantic will cool before the snow.