SnowenOutThere

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS lost all of the Western members at 6z. The mean slp is perfect. If I didnt see the op continually run this thing thru Harrisburg PA I would think the GEFS was honking a MECS from DC-BOS. This is good......real good:

Ok, when does Ji start worrying about suppression.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

?

maybe he meant Euro?

Just now, H2O said:

Snocane Isabel track. I love these tropical winter storms

That means we get snownadoes, no other option. 

Just now, Weather Will said:

EB 28Z GEFS.  Yes I am tired.  Been posting since early am and I worked today…

Solidly better percentages for the I-95 area. It has me getting an 80-90 percent of more than 3 inches of snow, like the confidence in that. Thanks for the maps. 

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Approximate track of the surface low from 99-108. Would be a unique storm track for sure. 

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

You talking about the one that is just coming off a 2 for 2 steak? That one?

Probably a 1/2 for the northern part of the forum, but has a low ever taken that track?  

Ladies and Gentlemen I present to you: The best model America can buy!

Guys come on, its the long range NAM. Might as well use woolly caterpillars to predict the snow. 

Just now, WxUSAF said:

That WAA snow will be a beast. Have fun Sunday afternoon/evening watching that rip, have some drinks and watch football, and go to bed before it flips. Great day!

What I am fully planning to do. Would be an awesome day.

Ripping at DC through 108 then the changeover occurs. Looks better for us.

I say we bring back the troll that acted like some weather god over the summer until he was banned.

GFS rolling out

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I love ya man, but learned myself over the years that the sage-like wisdom coming from the youngest person on the forum doesn't play well. Usually I found that I was posting things like this to reassure myself, lol.

Yeah I guess, but after already getting some decent snow last week it is a lot easier for me to just sort of let this one go. I will always hope we get the best storm we can and be a little upset if this storm misses. At the same time it is pretty unlikely we see nothing from this and at least see some snow fall which is the most important part for me. If we see an all rain storm I will be pretty upset though.

Even with the GFS solution we still would get a decent front end thump and some heavy snow, not to mention the storm is still 4ish days out. We will be fine

Only DC can still get screwed with a good low track.

We got to admit we just don’t know what is going to happen with this storm yet. Currently it could be a cutter or a southeastern exclusive, no need to lose sleep over it… yet.

Yes

I find that the storm being pushed back makes the forecast even more difficult due to the storm being 5/6  days out while yesterday due to it being more saturday/sunday it was also 5/6 days out. Just something to keep in mind

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The hype machine horse has left the barn.   Like the birth of a baby, once it's out you can't put it back in.  

It was at the moment he knew he messed up

I don't think it is wise to get to invested in this storm yet. Just 24 hours ago we thought this had little to no shot of going up the coast, now we are worried about to much amplification. Really shows how this pattern is a little too complex for he models to handle well at range.

CMC precip map at hour 132 

Goes up the coast for the 12z

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I love how TT just completely skips hours 102 through 144 for the ICON 

The best part is that the snowfall map still works from that time, just not the precip map

Just now, Interstate said:

I bet the GFS is even further west.

How much because I don't know if I would make that bet

55 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

On top of the 6z and eps, Check out the 6z euro control...was about to destroy DC

Can the GFS win again?!

 

Im a simple guy, do you have the funny precip map instead?