SnowenOutThere

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Cleaner? In what way?

I don't know I just find it to be cleaner making a new thread for the new month, almost like a fresh start or something.

20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Makes no sense. You wanna wait until March 1 to make a thread to discuss March weather which will be talked about in February?

My main issue is when a long range thread for the month of February and then it has over 140 replies by February, it just seems cleaner to have a thread for each month and then start a new one on the 1st of the next month.

Thank you for the new thread, for this month could we stick to just this thread for long range instead of someone making a March/end of February one that is nearly unusable by March.

1 minute ago, anotherman said:

So apparently the Euro still rules since the forum went quiet after it took the ice storm away.

I think the Euro folded more the GFS than the gfs folded to the Euro for this storm.

Very foggy outside right now

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

It's definitely got the low level cold now. The interest will be timing and rate of precip. Light precip with falling temps would create some serious skating on the roads potential. Hell, Bob could skate around Rockville with this setup. 

Even without significant precip with cold temps we would still most likely see a flash freeze on most wet surfaces due to the crashing temperatures. Looks to be disruptive with or without precip.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I could see another full cave by the euro coming

You did lead the way with the Friday event so far, so you don't want to ruin your current track record which means that this Sunday threat must be credible. 

Euro kneels to the king but does not collapse, lets hope it fully pays service to the GFS for the Sunday storm

CMC is slightly slower with the cold push

Holy crap, look at those rates

I like the weekend storm on the GFS

Really reduces the QDF with the second push of precip, which is probably the main issue.

The FV3 looks pretty similar with the cold push at hour 60 to the GFS, unfortunately it is the FV3

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I haven't even looked at it, but

THE ICON SUCKS

Slightly better than 6z in multiple respects, gets the cold here a tiny bit quicker and the moisture stays a bit longer giving us a slight period of frozen precip at the end.

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z 3K NAM at 60 hours compared to 6Z GFS and EURO much colder.

A lot out news outlets have been advertising a warm up to the 50s and 60s later this week, if the NAM is right that forecast would look quite bad

NAM 3k is lock step with the gfs at the end of its run

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

There is where I fake like I'm not checking every single NAM panel rn.

Well if you are, could we get a pbp?

14 minutes ago, stormy said:

The GFS is very fast in pushing the boundary south with no real support from the ECM, GEM or ICON.

I have very low confidence in that solution or is that wishful wish casting after nearly $5000 tree damage from the severe icestorm of November 15, 2018.

This storm definitely is a good test for the new GFS, seeing it go up against the other globals and even have two runs back to back with an significant ice storm while the others show nothing definitely puts it at odds with the majority for now. So I guess we will see if the GFS is sniffing out a trend or just sniffing glue.

39 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

A snapshot of the GEFS:

Only 8 have rain instead of frozen, pretty decent odds on the gefs.

GFS has another storm right after 

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

While I don't agree fully  with a certain semi-interloper poster who comes in and shits on the mood of the forum regarding ice, I do think ice storm impacts are model overly aggressively.  That said, this would be a moderate ice storm for the area.

Tends to happen, it has me get .6 inches of ice in 6 hours during the heavy precip which seems wrong, so that amount should not really be counted. After the precip becomes lighter and the temps drop is the more concerning period for me, and gives me around .3 to .4 more ice. So even discounting the heavy ice in the 30s it would still be quite the event.

GFS gives me 9/10ths of an inch of ice, would be a devastating ice event if that happens. Heck even half of that amount would be a huge ice storm. 

Yikes, if this is even close to correct it would be a mess

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS slightly further SE with front/cold.  Not jump for joy move, but noticeable

As long as it holds steady the threat is still there. Helps us make sure its not a burp run and lets us see if the on run Euro and CMC show it