SnowenOutThere

Super heavy super wet and huge snowflakes covering the grass now near reston, went from wet to white in 10 minutes. Just nice to see heavy snow with big flakes again.

Hey what is a good radar to use for storms both winter and summer? 

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Yes... the GFS snow hole is back at  12Z

The snow hole is right over me.

The NWS map is a very good representation of what we might get from this storm. It forecasts  4-6 area wide which might be on the high end by a bit. Then it forecasts a 9inch boom for  the whole which makes sense because we might have some very intense bands. As for the low end it is also I good representation of you being stuck between bands.

So a couple days ago I asked if we might have some thunder snow, most people said not really but with the stronger low and better forcing (from my mediocre knowledge) on the 3km Nam I was wondering if that has changed and we might get some thunder snow. 

Just now, Grothar of Herndon said:

Channel 5 says sunny and 55...

Wonder how they are going to explain the winter weather watch and if we get the Nam 8 inches of snow.

Its going to be a little fun though sad watching the weather people on TV scrambling to explain how there is a winter storm watch after saying its going to be an amazing weekend yesterday. 

The GFS has a high of 4 on the 14th

5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I was watching WJLA 7 during my workout this morning and the weather lady said there was no chance for significant snow and don't even expect any to accumulate on surfaces other than grass.  

If this storm does give an area wide 6-10 inches of snow like the NAM model overnight the news will be in some deep mistrust because it is a day before the event and they were forecasting nothing. Would be a little funny seeing everyone wake up on Sunday with heavy snow falling and 5 inches on the ground thinking they were getting nothing.

Yay! The12z Nam is a crowd pleaser with a wide swath of 5-8 for the whole form.

If this event does end up giving us 5-10 inches of snow I would be very concerned. I love snow I want this to happen but there is a good risk of area wide power outages because the snowfall rates will be super high and the snow super wet and thus heavy. This would lead to heavy wet snow falling heavily overnight onto trees that have just recovered from the snow earlier in the week. So if we connect the dots this would mean wide scale power outages which is concerning and something I have not seen discussed. That said I want a foot plus overnight with super heavy rates and big flakes. 

Looking at the NAM models and if they come true do you think with the 3 inches of snow per hour rates there could be some thundersnow overnight?

It looks like the Euro brings in colder air after the storm which would make the snow stick longer and is just an interesting feature of the storm that no one is really talking about. 

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

This is every storm in our area.

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Thought commutagedon was in Jan. 2011?

There was another one where a storm was underforcasted and dropped 2'' of snow and it was in the 20s during rush hour. Because everyone was focused on the 2016 blizzard in two days no one knew about this one and it caused huge traffic jams.  

Guys the Euro is on board

1 minute ago, blueberryfaygo said:

Weenie rule #468

Big Storm in the long Range

Lose it OTS in the medium

Brings it back in the Short Range

Checks out

At least the storm is overnight so there should not be sun problems.

Yay NAM since it is good for us we got to accept the NAM but the second it is bad we say how bad it is. Seriously though the new NAM one is great lets get the Euro on board. 

Yoinked this from the southeast thread but it seems to make sense and thought you people would like to see it. 

I've seen him post about this a few times, but Anthony M has this theory / observation about storm evolution during retrograding -NAO blocks....the first few storms track north (across New England) and feed into the developing block, then the next one or two storms are suppressed events when the block is retrograding (best potential across the South), with the finale being a traditional Mid-Atlantic to New England nor' easter as the block lifts out.

The previous retrograding block episode that we just had went down that way.  There was a storm across New England on Jan 26...then the Raleigh thundersnow storm on Jan 28, then the traditional nor'easter on Feb 1

I think the GFS trended slightly closer to phasing 

Overnight we got another coating on the sidewalks and untreated roads with light snow still happening. 

Its been 72 hours.

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

It’ll get posted pretty much every time when there is an event in play.  You don’t even have to ask.  The next event wouldn’t start until around 120 hours though and the 18z Euro only goes out to 90,  so you can maybe get some clues about it but you’ll have to wait for the 18z EPS to see how it trended.  That comes out around 8pm or a little after I believe. 

Oh thanks for clearing up the confusion. 

Could anyone post the 18z Euro model? It would be appreciated.