SnowenOutThere

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Its not even worth real analysis but I’d be very pleased if things progressed that way. A bunch of cutters in mid November slowly establishing lower heights and cold to our northwest which looks poised to press towards late November is ideal. You want a perfect pattern now when it won’t do us any good?  Let this thing slowly develop and maybe we get some snow the very end of November and early December when it’s still difficult but at least less crazy stupid unlikely. 

Was happy with how the pattern looked too but still found it funny that we would get missed by 50 miles. Though would like to see this pattern set up a week or two later as you said then we could get into December with it and probably get some actual snow.

7 hours ago, yoda said:

End of the 00z GFS was lulz

I know even in fantasy land we get screwed.

Just need it a bit more north, west and amped.

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Mostly interesting in the sense that a lot have "something" come through. This is just one panel, but some of the other ensembles have it +/- a day or so. Mostly rain, of course.

Thanks for the post and like the look of 11. Would be difficult to get a good storm but it’s ten days out so anything can happen

50 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Some vaguely interesting GEFS members around Day 10. Ready to track a disappearing storm again.

Could you post them?

Low of 29 somehow (might want to look into getting a better weather station) but super frosty on all grass, cars and roofs so might be correct.

56 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Sounds cool, but how do we get a storm threat?

pray

39 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Snowing at Canaan

Saw this post and wanted to provide a link

https://www.canaanresort.com/resort/webcams/

While I am not old enough to vote I urge anyone in Virginia to vote, democrat or republican.

BWI: 23.4

DCA: 17.1

IAD: 29.3

RIC: 13.2

SBY: 16.4

I think there would be a pretty hard gradient this year both to the north and to the west of DC this year but also a costal that just misses DC to the East giving the Eastern shore a good storm. I also think there might be to potential for a decent storm if we luck out and our area is due so might as well wishcast too. Then for RIC there will probably be a suppressed storm or two. 

9 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

6Z GFS with a SW VA Jackpot! You really think the snow will not cross into NC? LOL! (NC - NO SNOW FOR YOU!)

We need it just a bit more amplified and north. 

Before I make my guess, since this is my first year what does SBY mean? I understand BWI as Baltimore, DCA as DC, IAD as Dulles and RIC as Richmond but not SBY.

22 minutes ago, H2O said:

Kids have a 2 hr early release so I have to limit where I go time wise.  Good thing Old Town is just a couple miles away

Send us some pictures of the flooding

6 minutes ago, H2O said:

Am I a total weenie for wanting to chase coastal flooding?

Eh, who cares if you are.

2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

Shifting north! 

Don’t worry the fake south trend will start soon and then someone will scream suppression before it trends north again within 48 hours.

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You have to understand that we have a tendency to get the rug pulled out from underneath us at the last minute, sometimes as late as 12 to 24 hours prior to the event. It gets worse when folks from other forums come down to rub salt in the wounds and spike the ball in our face just to get a rise out of us. 

Snow is sacred here, you wait months for a 15 days window that produces maybe 8 to 12 hours of snow and then it's gone by sunset the next day. 

Yeah I was here last February, that one stupid storm got pulled out from us within 8 hours (yay sleetfest). I am guilty of whining about snow when we get screwed over, and it only irritates me when when people are saying a winter is over before it starts. I guess it also irritates me because I know that it might be and don’t really want to admit that we might have a 2019-2020 redux. It also makes me upset because it comes down to such small things when there is a storm that makes it impossible to predict 3 day out let alone 3 months.

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hitsotircally, La Nina winters are pretty terrible south of DC and east of I-95. Unless you're along Mason-Dixon or at a higher elevation, keep your expectations really low.

Yeah but I guess it just irritates me that people act like winter is already dead in October, I understand it probably won't be a good year but it's not dead yet.

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Unless it's 1995-1996, 2002-2003, or 2009-2010 redux, it's a failure. I've been guilty of that in the past. Just give me climo and Christmas snow anymore and I'm happy.

Yeah I've noticed but people are already acting like this winter is DOA just because it is most likely not going to be a great winter doesn't mean there is no hope/we can't do decent.

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You must be new here.

Joined right before last winter's Jan/Feb storm

13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS, interesting weak signal for something inside 10 days.

9/30 have some snowfall in the DC suburbs. Or a 30 percent chance. 

Jeez you people are acting like winter is already over. It’s not, specific short range climate is difficult to predict. Does it look good? Not really but don’t see the need for all the doom and gloom. We can just get a fluke storm pretty much no matter the larger scale factors even if the large scale does go to crap. 

Latest GFS says there is still hope for the Nov 6th storm

46 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

That seems to be 24 hour records. I got the impression Snowen is thinking of a 3 day event. Heck, either is OK for me.

I think a station in HoCo measured a bit over 50" in Feb 2010. 

Yeah Im just going for whatever is even on the realm of possibility, doesn't have to have any historical analog but just needs to be technically possible which is why I went up to 70 inches of snow. Sure its never happened before but I think if everything came together perfectly it might possible. I am almost in this thread going for what could be the best possible storm however unlikely for our area and wanted to hear from people who are far smarter than me at meteorology. 

Thinking that it would most likely be a storm with a direct access to a tropical moisture source or even a decaying hurricane running into a cold air block caused by a high over Canada that would stall out near Atlantic City. It would stall due to a strong high over the Northeast preventing it escaping. Due to the stall it would just sit there for a week feeding off the tropical moisture access shoveling the moisture over the region causing heavy snow for several days. Don't know the max possible with a storm but if banding sets up right probably plus 70 inches of snow.