SnowenOutThere

10 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

further improvements to the 10:1 mean at 18z.

12z and 18z really brought the Gefs back from 1.5 inches at DCA to 2.5 inches, at this point ens are out of their range but still nice to see

3 hours ago, stormy said:

In support of your thoughts,  NOAA says that the warming rate has doubled since 1981 but the pier reviewed data still says 2 F since 1880. The climate is always changing and has been for millions of years. Any speculation about the next 50 or 100 years is just that. But, a snow drought since 2016 in D.C. because of this?  I don't believe NOAA would support that idea.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature

Saying that human released greenhouse gasses will continue to warm the planet in the 21st century isn’t speculation, hope this helps ✨

31 minutes ago, yoda said:

Friday morning

Start the thread now, that way the models have time to lose it and then bring it back 

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This is how jaded we are.  GFS clocks us in not so fantasy land and there are like 12 posts after and most of the responses are like meh.  

Almost like 2 rug pulls in 2 weeks starts to dampen the mood … but hey third times the charm!

4 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

At some point between last winter and the Canadian wildfires I transitioned into full-on climate doomer. I keep checking in the hopes we at least get a MECS to prove my worst fears wrong, in the short term at least…

I have four young kids and it scares me what this planet is going to look like by the time they grow up. 

As someone who is legally a kid by the government: lack of snow is the least of our problems, if getting no snow on the east coast is what it takes for some science denying people to wake up then I’m down for it! and if you think it’s bad for your kids imagine their kids generation …

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

all because some are likely going to miss out on like 1-3” of snowfall. christ

That’s only part of the reason, people are upset because as psu outlined we've been in a great long wave pattern since end of December and have nothing to show for it! So when Mets reasonably point out we have another great pattern lining up most people are like “great! But we need to score from these at a point”. Personally I’m not canceling winter yet but that’s the current mood rn and you can’t rlly blame people for it.

Congrats to @Terpeast for correctly predicting by 0z Saturday runs we’d have an answer! 

Well this can’t get much worse, radio show anyone? 

Since were pulling every model out we can I'd like it to be known that the JMA is currently out to 72 

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

ICON will stay on the GFS team by the early look

may be slightly more progressive than 6z but considering 6z was almost too northwest thats not a bad thing. 

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

ICON heights backing more out ahead of storm. Doubt this ends like the euro.

The PNA ridge is def taller than both the 0z and 6z runs so far and doesn't appear to have the same kicker type feature the Euro does.

Just now, CAPE said:

6z EPS a bit further southeast.

That's sorta surprising, would have expected a consensus to start forming by now instead of them growing more apart. 

58 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Let it finish dude lol

And remember that the 10:1 ratios shown may be too low for this event too

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs looks significantly more amped than 0z so far. 

lots more vorticity and surface precip out to hour 90

Just now, Heisy said:

.

I can’t believe someone posted the long range NAM, at least it’s not the long range RGEM … wait a minute 

18 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

So, 12z summary of 120-144 OP runs:

CMC - west/rain95/snow favored spots

UKMET - west decent snow/bit of snow for 95

GFS - nice for all

Euro - what storm?

ICON - east/meh/nothingburger

Let's take the median ??

Aren't you forgetting someone? 

Just now, stormtracker said:

So far a bit more S and E than 6z

Following wave looks slightly maybe slightly less amped so far as well as the first one, either way it looks pretty similar wave strength wise to 6z through. Agree its all further south east as well. 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

but I don't even know if that is necessarily a good thing, ultimately I think the two things that matter most are that the initial wave doesn't amplify at all to leave space for the next, and that the next one is more amplified.  

The lead wave looks a little less amped for what its worth. 

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Would rather 6 inches over 24 hours than 24 inches over 6 hours.  Just like to watch it snow.  

You’d pass on 4 inches of snow an hour rates for hours? 

Just now, Terpeast said:

Looks like the euro moved closer to the GFS/CMC solutions, but remains slightly more amped but not quite fully phased.

Still a low confidence/highly uncertain forecast, but we will have more cold air around this time. That's one thing for certain.

Its typically a good sign when the snow maps posted will be Kuchera instead of our usual 10:1.

1 minute ago, Ji said:

one of the worst 18z happy runs i have ever seen

just wait till the hour 300+ HECS

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

I lost an Autel drone a few winters ago in 35-40mph winds  

Almost lost my mini 2 in a summer thunderstorm when the gust front hit but at the same time the footage was awesome.  

I’m not sure what it says about me but I’m extremely tempted to fly my drone up and see what happens … for science ofc