SnowenOutThere

1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

This is first I’m following it in earnest. Can anyone explain as to what is enhancing a n/s clipper from what I’m gathering? 

Possible interaction with the ocean, leading to more moisture available. Not the most qualified to answer though but that is what I think should enhance it.

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Guys, this storm is only 84-90 hours out… 

Long range RGEM time soon

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I wasn't trying to be critical of your post, just adding my own thoughts too it.  In the future people would do well to realize the GFS wasn't completely on an island.  Other guidance did see the setup in previous runs and had just lost the look temporarily.  Additionally the GFS was only about 12 hours ahead of the curve with the other models and they were trending along with it just a cycle or two behind the curve.  If any one model is totally and completely on an island with no support at all its wrong the vast majority of the time. 

Yeah, after the GFS and the CRAS both showed it far before the others. So the lesson is simple, the CRAS is a better model than the EURO. lol

My python program which takes in the model data and then weights each model said that I would see around 6.8 inches of snow, I got ~6.8 inches of snow. Guess I will use it in the future. 

Deck picture, around 7 inches of snow.

Bad news it stoped snowing

Good News: my forecast barely was right. Said 3-7 got just below 7

So close yet so far

1 minute ago, snjókoma said:

Pretty sure ratios are increasing... radar over me wasn't super impressive but had 1" in the last 30 minutes.

Flakes have definitely increased in fluffiness 

In Reston and I am starting to panic about the cutoff. 

Yeah messed up the hour

Just now, Deer Whisperer said:

4 inches of snow measured at 9 10 AM. Which is up from 2 inches at 8 AM. My bad said 9Am not 8

Going to make some observations from the radar.

In the large black circled area we can see the heaviest snow returns, the arrows indicate where they appear to be going on the radar. This means that the major metropolitan centers like DC and maybe Baltimore have a good chance of seeing very heavy snowfall maybe around 2-3 inches per hour rates. The more exciting thing is in the hatched black area which shows more heavy bands forming, these are also moving northward. This means that we will most likely have several intense bands IMO, but each one will probably be further east based. Finally the blue circled zone is where the moisture from the southern push has hit the cold air push, notice how tight the gradient is, this means that we will probably see a very tight snow to nothing line instead of a more spread out precip shield. Or the gradient will break down and it is free to explode to the north, I don't know about that one.

Dumping snow, 32 degrees around 1.5 inches per hour

1 and 5/8 inches up from 1 and 1/8 inches 20 minutes ago. Guess I’m at 1.5 inches per hour. Can’t see to the end of the culdesac which is about 150 feet away.

Picked up around 1/4 an inch in 20 minutes so nearing an inch per hour.

Just over an inch near Reston, winds starting to pick up

Once again for anyone who cares the latest HRRR is far more snowy and north than its old runs.

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just got into the extreme northern edge of the deathband, went from light snow to moderate within 8 minutes still need it a bit further north.

Picture for reference 

Just got into the extreme northern edge of the deathband, went from light snow to moderate within 8 minutes still need it a bit further north.

Notice how on the last couple frames near Warrenton the band starts making an almost directly northward push. That will be when the DC area and my backyard get crushed, probably moves in by 8.

3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Same here my friend. Steady snow but nothing major yet. Dc bands are eating up the moisture currently l

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Yeah me too….stuck between the dc band and the newly forming moco deathband.

Same here in Reston. Still pretty 

 Amazing 

18 minutes ago, joc111 said:

Hey, don’t know if people saw this but wanted to make sure they did. Isn’t 994 far lower than what the models have/had at this time. I checked the NAM and it had 998 or 997, would this be a significantly good sign for a better storm if this is the case?

Just now, 300 square feet said:

Starting to stick to the driveway in Reston!

5ish minutes away from Reston and it is so nice out, good flakes and rates does wonders.