SnowenOutThere

46 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Snow maps are going to struggle on the boundary.  Soundings and QPF are the way to go.  I’m modestly happy with this run sitting on the western DC Beltway.

Do you (or anyone else who knows) mind explaining how someone would be able to read the soundings to determine if it looks more white than wet, or the basics at least?  

Looks like the GFS will be a little warmer judging from the 850 temps 

Just now, Wxtrix said:

did she ask us to write it, or you?

Me but Im aware there are far smarter people who can help me in this forum. 

Alright my math teacher is making me get up in front of the class and present about the weekend storm, anyone have any idea on what to say because all I got right now is that there are currently 3 scenarios (strong storm but too warm EURO/ICON, strong storm and cold RGEM/CMC, weak and cold/weak and warm GFS/NAM) and there no way to know which one will happen. I have till 11:08 to prepare my statement... 

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

18z GFS is a little better than the 12z when it comes to raw snow output, at least, looking at the early maps I can get.

It’s way weaker and a little bit better confluence/850 temps leading in

16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I figure we can use some good vibes but had to dig pretty deep to find some … that said (hear me out) extrapolating the NAM looks like a good run for us with more confluence.

Nevermind it caved lmao I tried 

I figure we can use some good vibes but had to dig pretty deep to find some … that said (hear me out) extrapolating the NAM looks like a good run for us with more confluence.

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

CMC looks better than its past run so far

Very much improved, has rain snow line right along the fall line through 108 compared to sleet into the mountains on the 0z. 

CMC looks better than its past run so far

GFS looks to have slightly less confluence and a little warmer through 102

Icon is ever so slightly warmer than 6z, maybe a 5-10 mile shift northwest in the rain snow line ... Mainly noise but would have been nice to see a south shift instead. 

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol at the whole jinx thing on a science based board. It is time for a thread. The threat is legit, and it keeps this thread from getting too cluttered.

Considering we aren’t even able to name anthropogenic climate change when discussing climo is it really a surprise we believe in thread jinxes? 

10 minutes ago, Shad said:

if your following trends, you may want this to stop pushing south and east....pretty substantial changes in last 3 model runs

Considering the 12z CMC still is a little too far north west I think we’re ok if it keeps pushing south east.

Happy Icon run for those who celebrate it is an absolute crush job for nw burbs into I-95

Wheres jaws when you need it! @stormtrackerhas been lacking 

Just now, Ji said:

Is it a miss lol?

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

Watch this thing get suppressed after all the shenanigans today about it being too amped. That would be the mid-atl style 

20 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You wanna post the individuals?

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

CMC is also pretty good all things considered -- RA/SN line rides just south of DC

Man that fairfax county gradient though … a foot for me and 4 for southern areas of the county. Need that further south so school is canceled for longer 

The next super long range storm on the Euro is looking intense ... not sure if thats intense good or bad yet.

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Sorry folks, I lied

Main issue was that the southwest causing the storm was just way stronger on this run, if that was even a little bit weaker it probably would've turned out far better. At least thats what I saw

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Writing is on the wall. The trend continues to depress.. Unless we see another trend, I think we have to just accept it! Now looking for the ripple effects on the longer range. 

 

“The writing is on the wall” before the 12z runs yesterday most people thought this was a long shot! I’m all for panicking but this thing is still 7 days away no trend is at the point where it’s impossible to trend back. That said if we continue to see more north west tracks through tomorrow and beyond then it’s pretty much over. 

1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

They Know!!!

This is going to be this seasons shit the blinds 

Bro whoever has been cooking with these past three gfs runs need to show up more often

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Ripping snow at hour 183