SnowenOutThere

GFS is about the same as 12z

Just now, DE2PA said:

Digital blue mate.

You mean the .1 it shows at DC over the weekend after this one? Just confused to his post about being disappointed if next weekend doesn't work out. 

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now what would be more disappointing is if we can't manage to pull off flakes of some kind the following weekend.

You mean this time period because if so I'm confused to what we are tracking here.

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Seasonal trend has been for these lows to cut NW as we get closer to game time,  and not get pushed south. I'll hold out hope for a wiggle S/E so I can get a couple inches of front end like the January storm last year before it flopped to rain in the metros

I'm aware, but it is so painful to see how classic it looks before cutting to Ohio, maybe we can get a miracle for once but most likely its a hopefully couple inches of snow northwest of the metros to rain.

3 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Euro doesn't cut as strong as the GFS with the mid-week deal next week.  Maybe some front end? Marginal temps.  Stronger high in quebec but mid level winds out of the toasty south over our region. Let's pray for stronger CAD and a further SE track

 

It looks so close to something great.

Just now, jayyy said:

we’ve gotten virtually zero Atlantic side help either this winter

Did you forget December? It is fair to say that the Atlantic side help "failed" but it did happen. 

41 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

This was always on the early side for anything frozen for most of us. It's the storm after this that had some kind of chance.

If you ascribe to that idea then I wouldn't recommend looking at the GFS or CMC, maybe its the storm after the next storm that has a chance.

2 minutes ago, Terrapinwx said:

Pivotal is having issues with the ukie, so this is the best map I can show. No idea the thermals, but a track from Virginia Beach to cape cod would be a giant step in the right direction


.

Thanks for a rough surface low map, I was just confused on how the H5 map with the upper low to our left could be a costal outcome for us. I guess a progressive pattern helps make that happen. 

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Schizophrenia 

I thought that was the new GFS's feature

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

similar to the ECMWF, but still the second best model based on skill scores, surprisingly. 2m temps are useless

it's generally a bit erratic

Cool, but doesn't the H5 map still show something that more resembles a cutter than a costal or am I misunderstanding something. 

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

That's actually a really good sign. When utilized properly the ukie is a half decent piece of guidance provided you are aware of it's biases

What are it's biases? 

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

As Ji mentioned earlier, it's so juicy. MSLP transfer wasn't that favorable but still an exciting run -- good thing we got 40 more to go

Just need another 25 miles southeast for the temp line and we are looking good. Lots of potential with this system based on the amount of precip alone. 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Regarding the day 7 storm...at that range the difference between the 6z and 12z is noise.  The 12z actually held the general idea of a more coastal system v the true cutter of all the runs prior to 6z.  Go back and compare...the runs from yesterday were cutting the system to kingdom come.  Fact is even the 6z with an absolutely perfect track was marginal at best for snow here.  This is just a reality we seem to be dealing with no matter what.  So we have no margin for error...the 12z GFS synoptic evolution is still pretty good and would have been a decent frozen event (probably mixed) if we had an actual cold airmass in place.  

The Canadian model went the wrong way unfortunately at 12z by bringing the primary low further north. 

CMC cuts into Canada with the primary but still has some front end ice. 

1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said:

Whatever the GFS is doing right now, I would bet on it being wrong.....looks like its trying to do some type of weird Miller B but cant make its mind up 

Before you think that something can't happen because it looks weird remember that we had a storm that went from the outer banks to Harrisonburg last year. 

CMC looks a bit better and may be closer to the ICON, but the GFS looks the same as its 6z run

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

So far, 12z GFS very similar to 6z

Looks almost identical

2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

That thing bombs the F out from 210-222 with energy rounding the trough phasing in.

Just need that to happen a day or so earlier, though there is minimal cold  to work with as depicted on the Euro.  

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's kinda close and its "only" at Day 6. 

So close, phases the blobs of energy this run unlike 0z, definitely time left on the table for a positive outcome. The H5 looks very close to something

CMC made a major improvement for a mixed event for the region, even ends as snow for the metro centers.

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Love me some LR op digital fantasy

I’d take the southern slider if it meant we got that. 

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1615097732099710983?s=20&t=El_o5afTqNPXT-EpIT8ZKg

Probably could make the case for a subtropical low at this point. Maybe post season review will bring it up.