SnowenOutThere

Hey when will the 12z Euro come in to either verify or crush our dreams of a major snow storm. 

Nice model run 

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, just Baltimore.  Only 26" here in DC

Yeah you can't do anything with those amounts. Not even Warning amounts.

Just now, JakkelWx said:

This might be your best snow map drawing yet.

Helps when I don't make it and gives us 2016 blizzard amounts. 

That is what could happen if we get a band 

Just now, Negnao said:

Hrrr long range is a a solid 5-6 inches for dc metro before any mixing. One part of the storm we need to produce is the thump so that’s reassuring even though it’s the hrrr at range.

The other shorter term models tend to have a pretty good thump in the beginning on Sunday so that part of the storm looks good anywhere from 3-6 looks likely and that on it's own is great for our area and anything on top of that is a bonus. 

Just now, T. August said:

First flakes for most of the region will begin by noon tomorrow. Early in the morning for those way down in VA.

I miss typed sorry. I meant to sat that the 1st part of the storm would be within 24 hours but the second part that everyone is a bit annoyed at would happen in 40-60 hours from now which means the models can mess with us even more.    

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL, the storm is less than 24 hours out.

The 1st part is the Monday is around 48 hours out and the possible banding Monday night is 60 hours out plenty of time. 

Just now, blizzardmeiser said:

Agree people see a few maps at 15 and 20 and then get disappointed with 4-8. In this winter, 4-8 is epic

I know, my bar for this storm was 5 inches of snow and we got to look at all of the model runs. The Euro gives the whole area 8-12 inches of snow the NAM gives it 6 it still looks like a major snowstorm for us and in DC major is more than 4 inches of snow. Also we might have an ice storm so that's something. I also don't understand why this whole thread is in a bit of a panic we did the same thing yesterday and then it switched right back. It is two to three days out we are fine, it might even have us in the bullseye by Sunday. The models are going to be jumpy this far out, not to mention the snow is setting up in heavy bands which will keep jumping around until the day of. Even then even if the whole second part misses we still get 2-5 inches of snow.

Guys we got greedy, lets just be happy that all of the models agree we get 3-6 inches of snow. Enough to look nice and cover the grass. Also this is for Sunday one of the rare times when the ground is frozen so it will stick. This happens almost every time with a Miller B but there is time for it to shift back to us it is still two-three days out. 

Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. 

5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Just a suggestion, and I’ve never tried to make a map so you’re ahead of me, but if I did I would try to find an underlay that’s more subtle. I don’t think that you need the roadways. Just the county boundaries.

I just found whatever I could on google. Though good point. I will find a better one shouldn't be that hard. 

9 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

serious question:  are you a child?

I just like the weather and forecasting like everyone else here. 

I made it in paint lol it works except if the map does not include if so I'm sorry.

Hey everyone I have revised my forecast and this is the new snowfall maps. The first map is the first or Sunday to Sunday night storm and the second one is the Monday to Tuesday storm. If you cant tell which is which the one where snowfall is lesser the further north that is the Sunday storm. The one where it increases the further north is the Monday threat. Tell me what you think and if you think it is accurate. 

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I can’t remember storms based off the name... I can barely recall them off the date, lol. When was that one?

Uh the 2019 winter storm in jan I think it gave 6-12 inches of snow area wide.

Just now, wxtrix said:

because it'll be a warning then.  good grief.

I was joking 

1 minute ago, wxtrix said:

it won't be a watch on Sunday, so...

 

Oh no 

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s gonna stop Sunday night

The second that watch is over it just stops snowing that's how it works. Just like my map

Hey did anyone notice that the Watch only goes to Sunday night. So it does not even count the Monday stuff apparently.

Hey did anyone notice that the Watch only goes to Sunday night. So it does not even count the Monday stuff apparently.  

The HRRR model looks to have a decent thump of snow before the model stops running so that's good.