SnowenOutThere

8 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said:

At least we have that

At least you have that me I got freezing rain. 

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

That “shallow warm layer” over the balt / dc area feels like the reason we struggle in each storm to get going. 

Will it flip back to cold or are we done?

Just now, ovechkin said:

Lol-just flipped to mostly... rain. No joke. FR light rain now.

I feel your pain this is going to rip the sub thread in half between the people who it is dumping and for people who got nothing. 

Does anyone have the Dulles balloon soundings?

If this storm truly is going to be an all sleet storm and freezing rain this will be A one of the worst ice storms ever B The worst forecasting fail in my memory. Who ever wanted a sleet bomb you got it.

Why is it sleeting? What happened woke up a 4am in the snow hole then again at 5 30 to heavy sleet and rain without any snow on the ground. 

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Well the ICON has far out performed the others and I will argue that with anybody.

Just want to see your argument because it has been pretty good this winter could you put it in the banter thread?

I thought it wouldn't happen we were trending good but the latest Euro is not great to put it lightly. I sure hope it's not a trend because if this storm falls apart less than 24 hours from start I don't know what I will do. 

My bar here is either 4'' of snow or a bit of snow with around 3'' of sleet and maybe with a freezing rain coating.

Worth noting that the high was supposed to be near 50 and we only got low 40s along with the temp dropping faster than expected. From my base level understanding this should cool the ground and lead to stuff sticking but for anyone who knows stuff about the weather what would this mean for the storm? Would it change the upper levels some?

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Single digits for most of us outside the city cores on Sunday morning.

Gonna be an icebox and will become hard to melt. I can't wait.

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

This is the kind of storm where you wait to shovel until the very end so the ZR doesn't bond to the pavement.

Yep and I think that all of the neighbors are going to shovel and then the one nice neighbor will go around with their snowblower and get all of the snow off the driveways of people who did not shovel unwittily dooming us all to ice. 

The GFS para looks good too

The NAM also gives DC 0.4 inches of freezing rain and western Fairfax around .3. Would be a snow to sleet bomb with freezing rain to turn it into concrete. 

Total QDF for DC is a bit over 1 inch and below freezing the whole event. 

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

colder trends, more sleet doe. might end up more snow doe. i doubt it, because i am a negative nancy.

Sums it up. Good job

I do feel that the trends did not go great for now because most showed a colder but more or a sleet bomb solution. Though since it is trending colder this might mean that in the future we will see more snow. That said it did at least for me who is not an optimist after all of the missed storms this year trends did not go great snowfall wise which a lot of people look at.

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

What? How did overnight go poorly?

The Euro trended worse, the CMC trended worse, the NAM is about the same. In other words if you are a glass half empty type you could say that things are trending towards the NAM. This is at least true for Fairfax county where I live in which is disappointing. 

NAM 3k at 60 what a pounding

Man if the NAM is right we would get a total glacier, I mean some snow then a bunch of sleet along with freezing rain to solidify it into ice. It would be pretty fun not to mention have a lot of staying power but I think i'll take the snow solution.

Alright, I propose that we only start the thread a little bit after the watches or warnings are posted because when the NWS issues things the storm always falls apart anyways so a thread can't hurt. 

When will the 18z Euro come out? I thought it was around 7pm when people would post the maps.

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If we start a thread, can we please wait until after 12z runs on Wednesday? 

I say 00z Thursday just to be safe

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

Not for DC

I think it makes it trend worse if it is a warning but better if it is an advisory. 

Man, the latest GFS-v16 is a great storm for us a solid thump followed by sleet and then ice but never goes above freezing before the precip moves out then an artic blast a day later to keep the snow around on the ground instead of melting. I would take that in a heartbeat doubt it happens though.