Jt17

Where do you find this radar? .

How's this working out for ya? .

If the city can get to 4 PM all snow would be epic .

lol that's where it was 45 minutes ago before it retreated. .

This is false. Stop trolling. .

Well if the messenger is going to make stuff up and mislead people I'll at least call them out. No models show 3-5 for the city. The worst and clear outlier meaning the one you should be considering the least even show 6 inches on the very low end. On the high end some of the hi-res models are showing up to 15 inches with the sleet line retreating after about 2 hours back to snow. Most models including the out of range global models settle the middle around 9-11 inches. You can look through every model pivotal for free. Plus they've been trending snowier all day. Not the other way around! .

Hi-res models now in range thing that's ludicrous. .

Short term models presenting the possibility of the sleet line retreating after a few hours and bringing a few hours of good snow at the end. If it never turns back to snow it might finish with 7-9 inches, but if it does might get 10-12 inches .

Euro and GFS going in opposite directions. Surprising nobody seems to riled up about it. I think 10+ is on the table still for NYC .

Ukie a little better. .

Hmm I think it doesn't make it to nyc here - in fact stays south for 8 more hours. .

Best case. Would have a lot of happy folks in here. .

I like 8-12 now with the most recent ticks south. .

Yea I mean it just did 30 miles on 1 run. 30 miles more and it will look like everything else. Then the main differences just become if the intensity - if Reggie is right everybody will be happy. .

That's like 30 miles man. .

First tick back to the rest, hopefully it went overboard with the warm nose and falls in line with the rest of the guidance. .

Looks about 10 miles north than 12z. Still would be great .

Very close to better. Euro AI better, most short range keep it snow longer or entirely. I think small changes are possible that can make a big diff in totals. .

Pretty much mostly snow just like Ukie.. makes ya wonder. .

12z was snowier than 6z from overnight actually. It looks basically the same and is 100 miles south of the NAM .

Looks like it's papa NAM. All the other short range guidance says this look is 75 miles overdone not buying it. .

Can somebody post F27 from Fv3 vs. NAM. It's a wild difference. .

It sniffed out the warm nose idea first, but it also has a tendency to be amped an overdo things. Let's hope that's the case. .

NAM really hates this storm .

I think part of it is that the front end thump should have some high ratios and people in here assume that since sleet shows up that the whole storm is warm now. The onset is going to be high ratio snow and could pile up more quickly than people think. .