Jt17

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

I think people have said the winds would cut ratios which is a reasonable thing but no real wind at the front end of the storm.  

I know, but the comments every time somebody mentions ratios or posts a Kuchera map is ridiculous. Not the same type of storm at all but La Guardia got 9 inches of snow on .3 QPF earlier this month. ratios are a THING.

6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Snowing light to moderate but ratios already seem very good as expected, probably close to an inch already. 

No no, haven't you heard... there's no such thing as ratios. Snow only falls at 10-1 NO MATTER WHAT.

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

Howdy neighbor. I think we're good for 10 inches plus.

Yep I think it could be one of those where the outer boroughs surprise some peoeps... so far looking nice.

3 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Been a steady light snow for most of the evening but has noticeably picked up in the last hour. Just took the dog for a walk and I'd say about 1.5 inches with moderate snow. Didn't expect this so soon, it just has the feel of an overperformer.

We're neighbors I'm here in Flushing. Def coming down pretty nicely with about 1.5 inches as well.

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I think it’s HRRR/RAP time at this point. And they’re both trending better gradually. 

RAP would make a lot of the eternal pessimist crew look bad in here lol 

Nam looks good at hour 9, not east, but slightly north with a higher pressure and slightly lower pressure. Then at hour 12 it gets back on the double barrel train and gets sheared apart. If it really is just chasing convection like some mets think, we're in better business than we think/it looks like. 

NAM should be interesting lol

Just now, forkyfork said:

blizzards are cool. nuisance snow isn't

Amen. 

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Models are extremely on top of each other, there is like no uncertainty.  Literally every model has 6 to 8 for NYC.  

6-8 is 10-1 ratios. Bone cold storm through the entire column will have ratios. The Kuchera are likely closer to reality than 10-1

8 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Been happening all morning.  Have to take it seriously I think. Hopefully it just consolidates to the western low

I know but it actually got rid of the double low for longer this run than last. Up to hour 18 there was an inch more snow as a result even though the "west" low (and the only low at this point) was centered slightly east to previous runs. 

Nam looked a little more organized through hour 18 before eventually succumbing to the double barrel look which tugged the best snows east. Would like to see if other models especially the mesoscale models start to delay the double barrel look or eliminate it. 

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

This happens with every storm, always tick east before show time. Nam is east as well 

This is a better look to me than the last run:

previous run:

Nam is losing the double low look and picking a path in the middle for the track of the storm... this would make the most sense lol

Welp we have the RAP and HRRR on our side so far... look like the Nam and Euro runs from last night. Major levels of snow for NYC Metro and historic looking for LI and the shore on both for now. Yes, yes weenie and all that.

12 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

we still got the 15z RAP

Lol 18z looks like 15z 

6 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

we still got the 15z RAP

It still believes in the western low. Less energy stripped and keeps best snows slightly west... wouldn't take much. 

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Honestly when you compare the 0z Euro to 12z, the precip amount in NYC is about the same. About 0.75 liquid for Central Park in both. For me it went from 1.2 or so to 1.0". The real ouch area seems to be in SNE where around Boston the precip was cut nearly in half. This dumbbell low outcome would hurt them most of all because the Fujiwara the lows have kinda shunts it east along with the poor upper air evolution it causes. 

It really was a minor diff in output. But the look was def worse on the surface. Hopefully the double barrel low eventually becomes western dominant again - If not, the Euro would be a nice cold snow storm for the city and a pretty big storm further east. 

This run from the RAP just now is what we need regarding the double low. It emphasizes the west low and as a result it's broader and slightly west with heavy precip (run only goes to hour 21, so a number of hours of snow left after this run), it really doesn't need a shift east or west it needs to either consolidate the lows or at least emphasize the western one  and we should be in for a good surprise tomorrow.

It really isn't the track, now the qpf is being reduced by the sheered out double low look and while there was always a double low look on every run it was favoring the western one and now it's favoring the eastern one.

5 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

It's just one run though and considering the wild swings of this model, it shouldn't be taken seriously even the day of the event. In other words, don't get too high or too low on any one run, look at the overall trends. I saw the 6z nam and thought it looked nice but also knew that it was just one of those "nam" things.

I hear you, but my point is it didn't just go back to earlier presentations. It gave a completely new look that was much more strung out and worse. Its output was as low as the latest GFS. This late in the game I find it hard to ignore, but I don't deny there's a possibility it will wobble back somewhere to the 0z look (which looks like the latest euro) 

Euro is now the best look of any model besides the SREF plumes. Would sign up for a euro 6z look in a heartbeat. 

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

Odd to see some posters being disappointed as if the 6z Nam was gospel. Most on this forum who have been around long enough should better than that.

It's worse than it's 0z run too tho, and worse than the 6z euro run. It's a fairly dramatic change, especially since it seemed to be leading the way on resolving the double low into one. And then it just went full on double low 

It went with the double low look - that's the difference. If the double low look gets resolved and becomes one expect a lot of surprised people come Saturday night. If this is the actual look then we end up with a nice storm, but nothing crazy like the previous 2 NAM runs. 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Sref ticked west

1.25-1.5 over nyc nice