Jt17
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Everything posted by Jt17
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Totally eyeballing it but it seems to scoot the precip field 30-40 miles west and it's more intense overall...
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I'll keep it simple, through hr 24 it's closer to the coast
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When there's 2 clusters with the op running between the two it's certainly informative.
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The winds aren't going to be nearly as intense on the northwest extent of the decent liquid equivalent. There WILL be ratios. People 100% exaggerate the OTHER direction on this too. If you get .8 inches of liquid and 12 inches of snow... just remember you don't get to be happy about it because you didn't get your 1 inch of liquid. (I'm just playing)
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I bet GEFS has some goodies from its ensemble members.
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So the whole model suite basically shifted west and most seem to produce deeper LP. I believe that might be called... a trend
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I think mesoscale models might soon be able to help us sort out this convection sloppiness
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Yea but it's starting to give more emphasis than it was before to the western barrel...
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Cavey cave has begun
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Is ICON related to GFS? They seem to sort of spit out similar solutions
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It's too early for that under normal/any circumstances
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Rgem has the double barrel feature low and less intense LP, whereas the NAM basically consolidated the lows into one was more westerly focused with the low and deeper... and the RGEM still produced a bigger snow output north and west. I think the NAMs solution would produce a lot more for NYC and NW
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Agree - this run had a better track and intensity than the qpf output
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At hr 45 the double barrel low feature is almost entirely eliminated and it looks like it's in a perfect spot to bury I95 in jersey/nyc area, but then at hour 48 it hops a bit to far to the east when it full consolidates the lows into 1 and as a result misses the best snows by 30 miles. VERY close to a 15 inch+ snow storm for Central Park on this run.
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But way better? It got rid of the double barrel feature much earlier and it chose the west LP 962 basically at the benchmark, perhaps a little inside actually...
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not this time, it chooses the right playdate it appears at hr 45
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This is good...me thinks. 18z: 12z:
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.... and at 45 it goes back west and I think closes off.
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At 42 it picks the eastern one, but it does look better by a bit than last run at this point.
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If we could get some of the prettier EPS pictures to look at, I'd be quite grateful. lol
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Of course there are reasons why the depiction ends up the way it does, but I think you're still missing his point. He's trying to say when H5 looks like that it historically has a very signature output in real life and since these are model outputs days in advance he's using some reasoning, history, logic that some of the noise the models are seeing wouldn't actually come into play and we've have a bigger storm for our area. He can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's the simplest way to look at it.
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Agreed. With how close that looked I wouldn't be surprised to see a few crushers in the spread.
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It's not even about what's going to be depicted on this run or the next, what he's trying to say is if H5 literally looked like that in real time as the storm happened, the output would be for more snow than the model runs are spitting out.
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Anybody have EPS pics?
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Agree, I also am sure the ratios will be between than 10-1 in most places in a cold storm like this. People exaggerate when they say the ratio maps have no merit. The final ratios usually end up somewhere between 10-1 and the Kuchera map output and the western fringes should have a better shot at lining up with the Kuchera ratios anyway.
