Saturday into early Sunday...
This will be our next opportunity for potentially impactful wintry
weather. A trough will lift from the Southern Plains late on Friday
into the central/eastern Great Lakes by late Saturday. The trough
lifts through northern New England by late Sunday. A primary low
lifts into the central/eastern Great Lakes Saturday afternoon while
a secondary low develops over the south coast before lifting into
the Gulf Maine early on Sunday.
Main change to the forecast at this point was to bring down temps,
especially across the interior. Ensemble and deterministic guidance
featuring a cold air damming signal setting up as a blocking high
will be in place over Quebec. Given we are talking Day 5+ have
leaned more heavily on ensemble guidance at this point. Signals
showing up in the EPS/GEFS and GEPS with modest probabilities (40-80
percent) of 10:1 SLR 24 hr snowfall AOA 3 inches and even some low
probabilities (10-30 percent) of 24 hr snow AOA 6 inches. At this
point risk appears highest across the Berkshires/Worcester Hills and
a cold rain elsewhere. There could even be some wintry mix in there
as warmer air surges in late aloft, but for now have kept the
forecast rain/snow. Other potential crux in the forecast is how
quickly a dry slot pushes into our region especially with the mid
level low being to the NW of our area. Stay tuned especially if
you`ve got travel plans.