HREF probability matched mean QPF, indicative of a worst case
scenario, pinpoints the possibility of up to 5" of rain across
portions of the CT River Valley/western MA. While we do not
anticipate widespread totals of 5", it is quite possible that a
few localities see 4" of rain from this system. Anecdotally,
this system has a history of overachieving, dropping as much as
10" of rain across eastern North Carolina yesterday. Our CWA
continues to be highlighted in an area of marginal risk in WPC`s
Excessive Rainfall Outlook.
While southern New England has been rain starved for the last two
weeks, a rapid injection of 3-4" of rain will possibly result
in poor drainage and urban flooding, especially if it falls
across central CT where there is more urban sprawl. While a
flood watch was not hoisted with this update, it is possible
that if the 12Z suite of guidance trends higher in anticipated
QPF that a short fused watch will be issued later this morning.
More details can be found in the hydro section of the AFD.