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WinterWxLuvr

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Everything posted by WinterWxLuvr

  1. WinterWxLuvr
    I see this as possibly some light frozen in the beginning, mostly rain, ull thumps the mountains to our west, coastal gives the eastern areas a shot at some wrap around snow, but most of the northern va area is left with next to nothing. Don’t see this as a cad setup either. Not at all trying to be negative but my “reality” check tells me this is a no chance scenario for at least my local area. Eastern MD possibly but not for most of us.
  2. WinterWxLuvr
    The mountains eat any ULL precip
  3. WinterWxLuvr
    Seems to be more frozen now, so yeah probably a function of that high. But I think it’s iffy to think we get much more than light precip with that low in Omaha.
  4. WinterWxLuvr
    Getting that primary further east would also help a great deal. Get in central Missouri instead of Nebraska would be a start. A couple of gfs members do that.
  5. WinterWxLuvr
    It still might. This is still a good distance into the future.
  6. WinterWxLuvr
    My take on the gfs is that it’s active. Keep it active and we will score in time. It’s very early. I am very optimistic
  7. WinterWxLuvr
    Called HH for a reason. LOL. Models seemingly do this all the time.
  8. WinterWxLuvr
    4 seasons style? Seriously though, I cringe at a mention of 89. Of course a repeat of December 1989 wouldn’t necessarily lead to a Jan/Feb 1990, but still ..
  9. WinterWxLuvr
    Yeah but the reality is that most of March is a winter month. More so most years than early December. So I would actually think our winter lined up more with the solstice to equinox than to the calendar.
  10. WinterWxLuvr
    I think ensemble snowfall prediction is the most useless tool out of them all. Snowfall is dependent up systems that are not very easily predicted far in advance. Ens patterns are one thing but I’m not a believer in snowfall totals.
  11. WinterWxLuvr
    Hard to call the weekend system a cutter IMO. Pretty much just a low that basically develops in the Tn/Oh valley and then move ne. The gfs sure has the look of promise after Thanksgiving.
  12. WinterWxLuvr
    Look at their confidence level.
  13. WinterWxLuvr
    That sounds spot on to me.
  14. WinterWxLuvr
    Straight zonal though. Not unexpected from a long range mean though. And those heights aren’t really all that low.
  15. WinterWxLuvr
    The further in time you go, the more zonal ensemble products look.
  16. WinterWxLuvr
    LOL, yeah that’s way over my head. But thanks.
  17. WinterWxLuvr
    Always skeptical of mean patterns. You don’t know how it arrived there. I think people take the word “average” and think consistency. That mean could easily come from a slightly negative NAO for 24 of those days and 6 days of a huge positive NAO. If course I have no way of knowing as I don’t really have any idea of how that mean is determined. And I would assume that’s an ensemble forecast? If so, that makes it even foggier.
  18. WinterWxLuvr
    I’m out
  19. WinterWxLuvr
    That’s pretty close to the look I’m looking for.
  20. WinterWxLuvr
    Besides clippers another thing that seems to be gone anymore are the broad troughs the seem to be backed up against the front range of the Rockies with a piece of energy running down the slope into the lower Mississippi valley and cranking a storm that runs through the mid south and turns the corner up the coast. Just a memory. Possibly selective but those seem like they used to be more common.
  21. WinterWxLuvr
    Changed it.
  22. WinterWxLuvr
    Yeah it’s a two headed coin. Gotta have the cold. And we certainly can’t score with a whopping se ridge. A little bit of one can help sometimes. I guess for me my thoughts are if it’s stormy enough we will get lucky some with temps. And yes, those means only give a broad outline. What is shown is better than the reverse.
  23. WinterWxLuvr
    That ridge in the southwest would signify to me that we would be depending on something northern stream to dig enough to get under us. More than not that ends up being cold and dry.
  24. WinterWxLuvr
    BWI - 31.5” DCA - 21.7” IAD - 37.5” RIC - 9.1” SBY - 7.3” Stephens City - 3.2”
  25. WinterWxLuvr
    That BWI number is almost as high as Maryland’s avg points allowed this fall.
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