WinterWxLuvr
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Everything posted by WinterWxLuvr
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If you live west of DC I’d say you can stop even thinking about anything this weekend.
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What is an NAM?
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If we get a -epo and a +pna we will get some decent winter events. I have no doubt about that
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@Bob Chill, @psuhoffman, @C.A.P.E. do any of you see the possibility of this pattern actually retrograding as opposed to progressing? Seems that a small few hundred mile retrogression of that central pac ridge would put us in a decent place in the pac side of things
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And I was thinking that there is an anomaly map that comes from this super ensemble, maybe FSU? Same look as those gfs maps you linked for me.
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Thank you. Isn’t there one for a super ensemble. Not even sure what a super ensemble is lol.
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@psuhoffman, @Bob Chill where do you get those super ensemble maps that have the analog dates in the lower right corner?
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No. This is the next step .....
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GFS looks good .... if you want to party like it’s 1990.
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I’ll give you that they got this right. I’m not ready to jump on the whatever the eps says is going to happen train just yet.
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Today could be the day
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Clippers are a myth, right along side anafrontal snow.
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CPC analogs to the current patterns include dates in Dec 95 and early Jan 87. Both of those years had major winter weather right at 21 days later.
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That phase diagram had it looping much sooner than that at this time about 8 days ago. My guess is that it will be back to 7 quickly.
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Good stuff
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There was a period, and I forget when, when they showed a pattern that everyone was drooling over that didn’t materialize at all. The warm period you highlighted verified very well but I’m gonna need to see verification over a long period before I’m gonna say any forecast at 15 days is reliable.
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Right now that ridge looks persistent but I’m gonna hope that persistence can only last song long in weather.
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That’s good because through day 10 the gfs members don’t look too good to me.
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Haha yeah. I’d punt 10 straight winters to see a March 93 happen in January. But I agree. Probably a 500 year storm.
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It’ll happen again. Just gotta live long enough.
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I was going to post this afternoon that I think we get a warning level winter event before the 10th. Nothing scientific at all, just a hunch. Whether it’s snow or a mixed bag, no idea. I think my rationale is the cold intrusion being shown late in the model runs.
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I remember waiting until about 2 pm to watch the weather channel extended outlook. They updated that every day about that time. I would hope to see that cold air move East and it would always be stuck in time out there. It was very frustrating.
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Remember that anomalous ridge north of Alaska a while back? It’s interesting to me that as soon as that area froze up the ridge was replaced with an anomalous area of low heights. I don’t understand any correlation and it could be coincidental but it is interesting nonetheless
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I remember 96-97 because of the frigid cold in the northern plains and Rockies that would not move east or south
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Speaking of the MJO, I don’t have the shot that was posted in here on Monday but it didn’t end up today anywhere near where it was forecast. It has already made it to midway through 6. Notice those loops always tend to be forecast to start at about day 8 or so.
