Ok. I just have a different perspective on that. For me, the 10 day showed distinct ridging. The 3 day, while still slightly above normal heights, is a trough look in the east and slight ridging in the west. That’s a pattern that can more easily provide a cold shot/snow event than the 10 day, which could never produce snow.
I’m confused by this. The map I posted was for the 10 day forecast for Sunday. Either the 10 day forecast or the 3 day forecast is gonna be pretty far off. They both can’t be correct.
The problem is that even though ens at long range are better than op runs, they are still largely unreliable. Today’s 6z for 72 hours vs. the 6z run for the same time 7 days ago …
I’d think that a low in the lakes only aids in keeping the flow sw and causing it to be warm. I’d think suppressed vs amped would depend only upon the h5 setup