UnionCountyNCWX

SOOO much potential over the next couple of weeks based on the 6Z GFS. Just a little bit more help, and there's a good chance someone gets the ground white at least. Specifically the storm shown on the 6Z GFS around January 8th. The LP is essentially in a PERFECT position. Get that thing to neg tilt a bit, and get that HP to build in just a little bit more, and you have a perfect storm. It looks ugly on the surface, but temps are around 40 for most of the forum so again, baby steps in the right direction, and we got a winner. This one (really January 8-10 as a whole) has my eye for now over everything else.

Honestly, really not far off for a lot of us to see token flakes on the 29th-30th. Maybe a tad bit more with some help.

Granted everything can fizzle out of course, but so far this season, this has been about as "to the book" type pattern as expected in a strong El nino as you can expect, which means we should have at least some shots at fun over the next couple of months.

GFS honking the horn around New Years as well, though not as pronounced. Brad P even mentioning the pattern change this morning, so that's at least one positive sign.

Today's 12z GFS has more snow at the beach than a majority of the foothills at the end of the run lol. That was fun to see.

Was finally able to make it up to the mountains again for the first time since leaving to move to Charlotte in 2021. Figured I’d share a couple of pictures I took in Spruce Pine last week. .

I almossstttttt booked a hotel room around Asheville for the event. Glad I waited until the model runs today, saved me some money. I'm punting until next year, and I'm ok with that.

I want 70 and sun. I'm tired of the 45 degree rain we have twice a week.

Can't remember the last time I was nervous about the sun being out in January lol. Granted I'm to the East of the of the highest counts of that map. But with the sun being out all afternoon, does make me cautious, moreso than I have been in a while.

Massive change at 174(not really affecting our forum) but compared to the 18z, it FLIES to the NE. Left of Maine at 0z, when at 18z, the LP is in the southern part of Pennsylvania.

Not sure if this run will do/show it, but has a potential setup for a huge NWF up in the mountains.

156, DEFINITE improvement over 18z, at least the LP is on this side of the Apps. Regardless of precip falling, that is a big step back in the right direction. Haven't looked at the upper air charts yet.

Hour 150, has every indication of going Boom. good placement for the LP coming up, but see what happens in the next frame. Something to watch for is it looks like it almost want to form a hybrid miller A/B at 136, though it has a ways to go, but definite energy interaction.(IMO)

HP over Minnesota looks to be a tad slower coming down and stronger (7mb) than the same frame on the 18z (hr 96 on 0z, 102 on 18z)

Next couple of weeks have so much potential. Whether that means joy or tears remains to be seen, but at least it will be fun to watch. Haven't seen a flake of snow since I moved out of the Boone last July(2021) so hopeful for something. If not, it'll go right along with all of the sports teams I pull for sucking as well this year.

Snowing in Boone.

Definitely colder in Boone than an hour ago. Clear skies still

Evening everyone guess it’s that time of year to become active again. Can’t remember my previous accounts password (ashecounty48) so I have a new name now. Anyways, clear skies in Boone currently, temp definitely dropping fast.