jculligan

6"+ snowfall probabilities on the Euro ensembles in the 24-hour period from 18z Saturday to 18z Sunday:

The December 5th storm (last year) completely hosed the valley. They didn't get any snow from that one. At my location, it was raining cat paws until about 4pm then eventually managed to snow 6" when temps dipped to 32F in the evening. The frequency of events has been way higher this year, but the magnitude of each event has been less with no 3"+ yet in my location. Heading north this morning. On the drive up 16 it'll be interesting to see if/where the snowpack held.

It's been very interesting comparing these last two seasons. The Mount Washington Valley is doing MUCH better with "snowpack" this early season compared to last year. Last year, the valley wasn't whitened for the first time until 12/17. This year, the valley has had snowcover since 12/2 and yesterday's 2" brought the snow depth up to about 5-6" right on the valley floor. Looking at the mesonet obs, it looks like they are still holding at 32F so doubtful there's been much melting yet. We don't have as much on the ground at 1500' so it'll be interesting to see if any of the snow has survived at that elevation when I arrive home tomorrow morning.

They have very, very limited snowmaking from what I understand. Last year they essentially blew snow for the rope tow to get the beginner's slope open and left the rest of the mountain at the mercy of the weather. As a result, they weren't really "open" until close to February 1st and ended up with a six-week season. Their south-facing exposure is great during arctic blasts, but results in a very early melt-out compared to the other resorts...especially when we don't have a deep natural snowpack to begin with. I bought their uphill pass for this season, but could not justify spending several hundred dollars on a season pass when the "season" may barely last more than a month.

Not really "off the grid" but it's up at 1500' about a mile past Black Mountain Ski Area. One day I would love to have a cabin or a yurt that requires hiking or skinning to access, but this is just a dream for now. For the time being, I certainly can't complain about being a mile away from the nearest chair lift...not to mention that I can skin to the summit of North Doublehead from my backyard. It's not a bad spot!

Very concerned about the icing potential from Bartlett into Jackson and Conway east to Maine tomorrow morning. Looks like a pretty good slug of QPF early in the day (0.50"+) when temps are almost certain to be below freezing at elevations lower than 1500 feet. With a few very cold days leading up to the event, it looks like a prime setup for freezing rain with efficient ice accrual. Some of the QPF will likely run off, but I would imagine 1/4" of ice isn't out of the question in the notorious cold pockets. Wind potential tomorrow night looks fun too. I'm sure it'll be roaring up at my cabin, but I won't be returning north until Sunday morning...so I get to miss all of this. Hopefully the mild air can work its way into the valley before the wind kicks up.

Another half inch of pure fluff overnight, so I'm calling it a 2.8" total here. 16 degrees with big fluffy flakes slowly floating down at the moment. Pure winter.

2.5" final in Jackson NH

2.5” on the nose here. Beautiful night with fresh snow, light winds, and a temp of 19F.

The cold air damming in that location is astonishing. While most populated areas in New Hampshire went into today's event with bare ground...there was still an inch or two of old snow on the ground in the Jackson, North Conway, Glen and Bartlett area since the low levels never quite mixed out in that location Monday night. If they went above freezing at all, it was only for a couple hours. Prior to today's event, it was weird driving from my place at 1500' which was completely bare down into the valley which remained white. I anticipate a similar situation this coming weekend.

Measured 2.2" at 4pm today and we haven't had much accumulation since, but it appears we are getting another burst now. Both the NAM and the Euro seem to indicate a more substantial burst beginning around 10pm tonight, so perhaps we can even approach 3" by the time all is said and done. Looking ahead to the next event; starting to think there is potential for a significant glazing from the Mount Washington Valley east to tamarack's neighborhood Saturday morning. The raw freezing rain output on both the Euro and the Canadian are suggesting pockets of 0.50"+ which is usually overdone, but it looks like a nasty icy morning either way. I'll be down in Massachusetts tomorrow through Saturday, so I'll be fortunate to miss out on that...

2.2" in Jackson NH. 20/16 with -SN continuing.

I thought this event was essentially done, and we even had some dim sunlight peeking through about 45 minutes ago...but suddenly we are getting the best snow of the day right now. Perhaps we can eek our way to 2" after all.

1.2" so far in Jackson NH. 22/19 with light snow currently.

Just shy of 1" here in Jackson as of noon. We had about an hour of decent flake size from 9:30 to 10:30 but otherwise it's been very fine almost "snizzly" type snow. Definitely our coldest day of the season so far at 21F.

Agreed on all counts. Last year I had a 6"+ snowcover from 12/5 through 12/23 only to see it all go in the obnoxious Christmas Eve cutter. That left us with bare ground for the entire stretch between Christmas and New Year's. I'd rather have the snowcover during the actual holiday stretch. Light snow started here maybe 20 minutes ago. A dusting down so far. Anything more than 1.5" and this will be my biggest snowfall of the season so far. Bar has been set pretty low lol.

Drove through squalls on my way up to skin an early lap at Wildcat this morning. Not much accumulation but Route 16 was definitely dicey and visibility was not good. In typical Wildcat fashion, the new snow pretty much blew off the trails exposing the boilerplate conditions underneath. Much different from the soft edgeable conditions at Bretton Woods yesterday lol. Only a dusting here in Jackson, and it's currently 28F with mostly sunny skies. Tomorrow's event still looks like a general 1-3" type deal on most models. The pattern of nickels and dimes continues, at least for now.

It would be consistent with our "inch every other day" pattern. I still had a solid snowcover at sunset this evening, but the last 5 hours have completely wiped the slate clean. Hopefully Wednesday's event pans out.

Sounds like quite a wind event in favored downslope areas today. Phin already mentioned gusts to near 60 mph in his area, and a friend of mine reported "lots of downed trees" on his drive from Bethlehem to Lancaster NH this afternoon. Bretton Woods wasn't operating their gondola, which is very rare. Fortunately I went there to do some uphill.

Wild temperature ranges across the White Mountains right now. I made the trek over to Bretton Woods this afternoon around 1pm and it was 36 when I left Jackson, dipped to 34 as I entered Crawford Notch then shot up to 46 when I arrived at Bretton Woods. An hour later it was up to 53 at Bretton Woods, but still 34 in Bartlett and 36 in the village of Jackson. Climbing the hill back to my place, the temperature shot up to 46. I'm not sure how accurate this PWS is near Randolph Hill, but it logged a high temperature of 65 this afternoon with a peak wind gust of 65 mph: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNHRANDO11

Still holding at 33 with steady light rain here. Glazing is done and dripping has commenced. I love how the notches become mesoscale weather boundaries on these types of days. The southerly flow is a bit stronger today compared to last Thursday, when we never really mixed out...so it'll be interesting to see if/when we bust into the warmer air today.

Even though today is a bit of a bummer, I can't really complain about the frequency of snow events in this pattern. I have received 1"+ of snow every other day since last Thursday (1.0" Thursday, 1.5" Saturday, 1.0" today) and it looks like both the GFS and the Euro have arrived at a consensus on events both Wednesday and Friday of this week as well. No, we aren't exactly getting any synoptic bombs...but for those of us that depend almost entirely on synoptic scale events, it's not often we get a refresher every other day! We might be waiting a while for the first 6"+ but I'll take this for now.

1" of new snow and a pretty decent glazing out there right now. 32 degrees with freezing drizzle.

Ended up with 1.5” here. I was expecting a dusting, so this is a nice surprise! I’m headed to Sunday River tomorrow so I’m hoping they caught this as well.

Snow started here in Jackson around 5pm and we've picked up an inch of fluff so far. Still coming down at a decent clip. Expectations were very low, so I'm quite pleased!