vortex95

K0D8 - Gettysburg SD K1D8 - Redfield SD K4B8 - Plainville CT K60R - Navasota TX KD09 - Bottineau ND KE57 - Denver City TX KE77 - San Manuel AZ KFOM - Fillmore UT KMKQ - Green Canyon 433 LA 27.52/-90.00 44m KUWL - New Castle IN

K10U - Owyhee NV KI95 - Kenton OH KHVC - Hopkinsville KY METAR SID Change K3J7 to KCPP - Greensboro GA

KBFR - Bedford IN KM01 - Memphis/Spain TN KP52 - Cottonwood AZ KUUV - Sullivan MO KW40 - Mount Olive NC Site ID Change K5M9 to KGDA - Marion KY

K74V - Roosevelt UT KGGF - Grant NE KS24 - Clyde OH KZER - Pottsville PA METAR Site ID change: KI43 to KJRO - Jackson OH

K10G - Millersburg OH K15M - Iuka MS K2G2 - Steubenville OH

K36K - Lakin KS K40U - Manila UT KAGO - Magnolia AR KATA - Atlanta TX KFSK - Fort Scott KS KMPR - Mc Pherson KS METAR SID change: K0J6 to KHDL - Headland AL KHTO to KJPX - Wainscott NY Manually-taken METARs ended: PAEC - Chulitna River AK https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/observations/metar/stations/PAEC.TXT

K8T6 - George West TX KGLX - Mississippi Canyon 724 LA 28.23 -88.99 55m KGVW - Galveston 209A TX 29.13 -94.55 37m KK70 - Key Largo FL (FAA code is 07FA)

K9S9 - Lexington OR KEGT - Wellington KS KEKE - Eugene Island 251A LA 28.497 / -91.57021 32m KMQW - Mc Rae GA KTQV - Durham/Duke NC (FAA code is NC92) KUMP - Fishers IN METAR Site ID change: K1J0 to KBCR - Bonifay FL

K0J6 - Headland AL K1R8 - Bay Minette AL K9S2 - Scobey MT K9S5 - Three Forks MT KAGI - Garden Banks 426 LA KBTN - Britton SD KIUA - Canandaigua NY KLLN - Levelland TX KO05 - Chester CA KOIC - Norwich NY KRPX - Roundup MT KS34 - Plains MT KT78 - Liberty TX KTHM - Thompson Falls MT KTWT - Sturgis KY METAR ID change: K6S5 to KHRF - Hamilton MT

Actually, May 1995 did not have a low tornado count. Quite the opposite with 391 tornadoes, the 7th highest monthly total on record. Be careful with taking statistics at face value on social media.

K35A - Union SC KMZJ - Marana AZ KSPK - Spanish Fork UT KVVS - Connellsville PA

NOUS41 KWBC 161520 PNSWSH Service Change Notice 21-30 National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD 320 PM EDT Tue March 16, 2021 TO: Subscribers: -NOAA Weather Wire Service -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network -NOAAPort Other NWS Partners and Employees FROM: Captain James Crocker, NOAA Director, Surface and Upper Air Division Office of Observations SUBJECT: NWS Upper Air Station at Chatham, MA, to permanently close effective April 1, 2021 The NWS will cease all radiosonde observations (RAOB) and data transmissions from the Chatham, MA, upper air site, after the final sounding 12Z March 31, 2021. The WMO Site number is 74494 and the Site ID is KCHH. These two AWIPS products will cease effective April 1, 2021. These products are for the RAOB Mandatory (MAN) and Significant (SGL) levels observations. WMO HEADING AWIPS PIL USUS41 KBOX MANCHH UMUS41 KBOX SGLCHH Users should refer to upper air observations from the three nearest NWS upper air sites: Brookhaven, NY, (72501); Albany, NY, (72518); and Gray, ME, (74389). Following decommissioning of the Chatham upper air station, when weather conditions or circumstances warrant, these stations will make supplemental observations. Recent significant erosion of the coastal bluff where the Chatham upper air station is located is a safety concern for the personnel who launch radiosonde soundings. The balloon inflation building is at risk of loss from a landslide. For this reason, the NWS will decommission the site on March 31, 2021, and have the facility buildings demolished in April 2021. The NWS is actively seeking a new site for upper air observations in southeastern New England and will notify the user community when property acquisition is made. If you have questions or feedback, please contact: Hiram Escabi, Jr., NCE, CET Upper Air Program Manager NWS Program Management Branch Silver Spring, MD 301-427-9195 [email protected] NWS Service Change Notices are online at: https://www.weather.gov/notification/

K4V1 - Walsenburg CO KE42 - Spearman TX KT89 - Lajitas TX KU52 - Beaver UT

I posted this several ago ago. Here is the update for 2017-2020, and also the complete file starting in the 19th century. I only listed killer or significant tornadoes prior to 1975, and all tornadoes 1975-2020. newenglandtor201720.txt newenglandtor.txt

K81R - San Saba TX KGNG - Gooding ID KNJW - Preston/Williams NOLF MS

K63S - Colville WA KADT - Atwood KS KDWA - Davis/Yolo County CA KK62 - Falmouth KY KOAR - Marina CA KU69 - Duchesne UT PAKX - Port Alsworth AK

Goni as strong as Haiyan? Going strictly by satellite here. I did a comparison of EIR and BD geostationary imagery (4 km resolution) at Goni's and Haiyan's peak intensity of 170 kt. Goni EIR 10/31/20 18z 170 kt https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/4kmirimg/2020wp22_4kmirimg_202010311800.gif Haiyan EIR 11/7/13 1830z 170 kt https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013wp31/4kmirimg/2013wp31_4kmirimg_201311071830.gif Goni BD 10/31/20 18z 170 kt https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/4kmsrbdc/2020wp22_4kmsrbdc_202010311800.jpg Haiyan BD 11/7/13 1830z 170 kt https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013wp31/4kmsrbdc/2013wp31_4kmsrbdc_201311071830.jpg Haiyan looks more symmetrical with a thicker/colder CDO ring and warmer/clearer eye. ----- Comparison of Polar EIR imagery (1 km resolution) Goni EIR 10/31/20 1225z https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/1kmirimg/2020wp22_1kmirimg_202010311225.gif Haiyan EIR 11/7/13 1640z https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013wp31/1kmirimg/2013wp31_1kmirimg_201311071640.gif Polar imagery is not at the same time but still Haiyan looks so much more impressive overall for its cold COD ring and a warmer/clearer eye overall. Geostationary imagery for Goni at 18z does not suggest its satellite presentation improved to this level from 1225z.

USAF did do recons in the WPAC (mostly out of Guam) until 1987. That's when I think full reliable geostationary coverage (GMS satellite) was available. It is virtually without a doubt there have been several STYs in the WPAC stronger than STY Tip. Haiyan (2013) and Zeb (1998) are likely candidates. A few more are discussed here: https://ams.confex.com/ams/26HURR/techprogram/paper_75465.htm https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/75465.pdf Many TCs globally, weak and strong, are underestimated when no recon is present. Dvorak does best with systems 60-105 kt. This mean two things 1) a lot of TDs are actually weak TSs, and 2) the most intense TCs are often underestimated, sometimes by significant values. The smaller, more intense a TC is, the greater the error. Dvorak does not do well for small/tiny intense TCs. No way we would ever have got 215 mph for Patricia based on satellite, even if it was an average size TC. Usually TC centers will max 1-min winds at 185 mph for satellite-only estimates, such as EPAC Linda 1997 (likely strong than 185 mph). JTWC until Haiyan never went about 185 mph satellite-based only. Even Haiyan's 195 mph is only an estimate. In the hurricane re-analysis project for the Atlantic, adjustments to the most intense TCs are capped at 185 mph. Just no way to tell what really goes on in these mesoscale cores of intense TCs without recon, even with direct pressure readings as we now know how variable the winds can be for a given eye pressure. I will say with the FL Keys Labor Day hurricane in 1935, an 892 mb pressure and RMW smaller than Andrew's, and 30 mb lower than Andrew, that meant the winds were probably ~200 mph.

METAR: KORK - North Little Rock AR KRVJ - Reidsville GA KT69 - Sinton TX PHHN - Hana HI PHMU - Kamuela HI RAOB: 72413 - Sterling Field VA 38.97/-77.48 89m

Not it wasn't personal. Just calling it as I saw it in the here and now, and looking at the synoptic pattern. Laura had been struggling it seemed forever, and I didn't see the overall environment changing much today. Dry air was still present just to its NW and shear was forecast to increase. But TCs are strange beasts, and small-scale factors can take over since were are dealing with TC inner cores, which are often on the mesoscale, so the synoptic factors can become a non-issue at times. As everyone knows, intensity forecasting for TCs is probably one of the most challenging aspects of the field.

Yes, I know. Laura is doing what Harvey and Michael did. But at the time of the above post, doing a nowcast from that was not that unreasonable. However, the atmosphere is always throwing curves at you and all us of will be burned some of time. This is Laura's first RI, not a system that got strong early in its existence. Florence in 2018 was different. Multiple ERCs well before landfall, so it had expanded in size with the wind field spread out, and that's one reason why it didn't intensify near landfall despite going over the Gulf Steam (weakened a lot in fact). It's easier to tighten up a TC the first time (no RI prior in its existence). Laura had struggled all along and now makes its move at the last min.

I've talked about some of the below before, and others have posted some of the content below, but I'd thought I'd update and add a few items to take a look at things as a whole. Comments/input welcome! ---------- Macro was never that impressive on satellite. Only reached minimal hur strength, and now it's getting torn apart by shear. LLCC fully exposed now, and it might not even make landfall. Either way, overall impact here should be minimal, so not the doomsday 1-2 punch as hyped for the Gulf Coast. Laura has been struggling all along. Yes, it held together well over Hispaniola, but that b/c it didn't have much to lose. A large weak system encountering an island with tall mountains is not the same as an intense system with a tight inner core doing the same (Isaias same situation as Laura). Also, the upper-level outflow yesterday for Laura was quite good. However, today northerly shear has degraded the sat appearance, and it is a mess. Yes, it should eventually get it act together in the GOMEX, but Macro and Laura continue the trend of ATLC systems that have struggled almost continuously throughout a large part of their existence, and Macro ends up being another "junk" storm overall, not getting that intense, struggled with shear and dry air a significant part of its existence, and doesn't contribute to seasonal ACE much. Does anyone find this odd? Where are the long-track classic intense Cabo Verdes? No hurricanes in the MDR yet. Here is a GOES-16 EIR loop on August 18th showing a robust wave over western Africa. I realize the parallax makes the cloud tops look colder than that actually are, but nevertheless, it was a decent wave. https://drive.google.com/file/d/18gCoMbIRVuiJbOe1kEVfRcLEsof6CYVT/view?usp=sharing And this is what it looked like on August 22nd. All the convection is gone. Seems like the SAL did a number on it. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CInDEDq51Amti0bQh6RbrUvDfSYFRp1C/view?usp=sharing So would you expect such a dramatic suppression of a strong tropical wave now that the peak season has started for the ATLC? It just seems a bit too dramatic when the MDR overall parameters are good. Even in the absence of favorable MJO phase, it doesn't necessarily mean the MDR activity is across the board suppressed, or at least not *this* suppressed. Attached is an ATLC GOES-16 split window image 24/12z. The SAL is alive and well in much of the subtropics and tropics. Also attached is an ATLC WV image from 24/12z. Very dry air at mid-levels cutting S right through the western MDR, and the upper low NE of the Lesser Antilles is forecast to move WSW and be in the central Caribbean in a few days. That's going to shut down any activity in this area. Another image attached is the 24/06z GFS 84 hr 250 mb fcst showing another upper low NE of the Lesser Antilles with its shear axis extending to Trinidad. This may limit significant TC development in the MDR this coming week. This would bring us to the end of August. There are ATLC seasons where many TCs significantly develop well E of the Lesser Antilles, and seasons where you get more "home grown" TCs in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. We seem to have an odd hybrid season thus far, w/ many short-lived tropical storms and a number not forming in the tropics or subtropics, TCs in the MDR struggling, and all our hurricanes either in the GOMEX or off the SEUS coast. You would think by now we'd have at least one or two long-tracked strong Cabo Verde hurricanes. Many Augusts have had them. So I ask this question, can there be "too much of a good thing", for the lack of a better phrase, present? As I mentioned before, we had early season indications that were at record or near record levels. Can this result in other factors being introduced when we are in record territory? For instance, the SAL. It seems to be sticking around and a factor still, what if it ends up not waning like it typically does this time of the year and continues into Sep? That would continue to have significant impacts on TCs in the MDR, regardless of the MJO phase. Or a persistence of TUTTs near and in the MDR, like we are going to see the next 4-5 days? I realize there may be no real answers to my questions here, but looking at recent weeks and the here and now, you can't help wonder something might be awry (i.e. something happening we have yet to observe large-scale in an ATLC TC season). The atmosphere is full of surprises!

This is what I have been hypothesizing. Conditions are *so* favorable, somehow it has the reverse effect? All global oscillations and patterns vary in magnitude and interact in many ways. Who's to say there can not be a combination where "too much of a good thing" occurs? Some unexpected side-effect of the record or near record large-scale indicators that the Atlantic has had early on stating it should be very favorable for TC activity? Yes, we got a lot of NS so far, but where is the quality (intensity)? The SAL has been rather strong this year, and it is still evident in the MDR (it wiped out completely the most recent AEW that looked impressive when first coming off land). Typically the SAL wanes by mid-August. What if it continues another few weeks? That may seriously impact TC potential in the MDR.

Problem we are seeing with Macro is similar to Laura, just not quite as bad. Note how recently convection waned over the center, re-fired in a small blob, and now is waning again. That's a sign of dry air entertainment. Also, the larger more intense convective blob just to its NE -- surrounding large blobs like this discrete from the center are not good b/c that area will collapse and send out outflow at low levels into the LLCC. Also, it interferes with the anticyclonic smooth outflow aloft that tries to get established over the central convection.