Correct me if I’m wrong, but this sounds eerily similar to what the climate in the Atlantic is like right now, just without the same low shear due to the position of the MJO? It sounds like once we get towards the end of August, and the shear dissipates significantly with the MJO coming in, it will create a climate not unlike the one that unfolded in 2005(except in 2020 it’s obviously taken until the end of August to create similar conditions instead of May/June) if I’m interpreting it correctly as a novice? The pace at which TS are forming this year despite lacking Very favorable conditions so far has got to be extremely worrisome, if anything we’ve been very lucky the conditions have been modest at best for TS intensification.
I mentioned something similar to another Met who didn’t get back to me yet, but it really seems like it’s going to be a ticking time bomb out in the Atlantic once the shear gets pushed out by the MJO, what is your opinion on what to expect(Well, more importantly what to PREPARE for in a few weeks? I have limited experience/knowledge but it really seems like conditions will be eerily similar to June 2005 by the end of August, and given the extreme activity that’s been present it would be seem like that activity should if anything pick up, as well as obviously pick up the intensity of the storms as well, right?
