Brian D

Mother's Day forecast looks like mostly fair and cool weather for most of the region. Wet weather will be moving through in the couple days prior to this day.

5 days to go, and gov models have had something here off and on for a few days. Will I do better than last time? Hope so.

Here's the winter data for our region. Ended pretty avg in the record.

Results of last night's snow. Typical March style weather for our region, snow north with svr stms south, albeit a little early for tornadic stuff in MN.

About an inch on the ground right now. Very wet, snowman snow. Moderate snow falling right now.

Started off with some rain that quickly has gone to a rn/sn mix this afternoon. Big flakes. Should go to all snow this evening sometime.

Looks like some rain with thunder possible before the snow tonight. It's been a few weeks since this amount has been forecast for my area.

Been a while since I posted. Been real quiet on the weather front with rather mild temps at times, like today. Couple of cold snaps were mixed in there as well. Sloppy weather coming up in a couple days, though. Might see some acc snow. Feb temp data out, so here is how we stand for our region in the scheme of things. Definitely one of the colder Feb's in the record. Edit: Replaced chart with the one that should be here for our entire region, not just upper midwest.

You mean this? Right down to the Gulf coast. Very impressive

Really cold stretch ended yesterday, so I'll update my last report. Impressive Feb cold. Duluth(Hi/Low) 2/11: -4/-23 2/12: -7(R)/-19 2/13: -6(R)/-35(R) 2/14: -6(R)/-26(R) 2/15: 2/-24 2/16: 13/-28 2/17: 11/-22 I-Falls(Hi/Low) 2/11: -9/-36 2/12: -9(R)/-38 2/13: -10(R)/-42(R) 2/14: -7(R)/-35 2/15: 5/-39 2/16: 10/-36 2/17: 15/-28

Feb 1936 was a rough one.

Ok, here's my thinking on Easter weekend. Sharp cold front coming through on the Good Friday, giving us the chance of showers/stms (even some snow potential behind) followed by a ridge on the 3rd, with inclement weather for the more southern areas and an approaching front from the west moving in on Easter for our western areas. Boom, bust, or something in between, lets see how I do. Maps:

In the teens here in the Northland. WOO HOO! Furnace is getting a little reprieve from the 10 min kick-ins over the past 10 days. Looks like a similar setup to 1989 depending on anomalies for the rest of the month, especially in the West.

St. Patricks Day forecast looks good with an eye to the W/SW for a potential storm threat to the region afterwards.

That's true. And low max record was 31 in 1909. If 14 is official, then that's 2nd coldest max in Feb with 12 on 2/12/1899 being 1st. Smashed!! It would be tied for 3rd for low max in the entire record. 12 (2/12/1899), 13 (12/24/1983), 14 (12/22/1989) Edit: The morning low tomorrow looks to be top 5 or even 3 for the entire record. Awesome cold. Bet they are freaking out down there.

Ice compare for western Lake Superior. Feb 7 & 15. Didn't take long. And BTW, a bunch of fisherman needed rescue off the Duluth shore as the ice broke off and drifted NE. Caught them off guard. LOL And they have to pay for it, too. MN law went into effect back in the 90's because this happened so much. Costs a few bucks for the rescue squad to do it's job.

After some rough weather with the brutal cold, one more nasty morning before the uphill climb starts tomorrow afternoon. That's ENOUGH!! LOL

The highlighted area shows my thinking from mid Nov. I was pretty close with that particular forecast. Feb has indeed been very cold. I continue to believe late Feb/early March will have some strong cold snaps for that time of year. Bigger stms should stay south and east of me here in N MN until about mid Mar when I expect to be hit harder with them. Now that Valentine's is here, I do have forecast's for St. Patrick's Day and Easter I'll be posting soon. Hope I do better than V-Day. That was awful. I'm so used to forecasting for my region over the years, that expanding it has been a challenge for me. I hope to do better, but failure is a great teacher, too.

Yeah it's pretty damn cold up here. Furnace kicks on every 5-10 minutes depending on the wind. Wind sucks the cold right out of my house. Been a while since we've had a stretch of cold like this, especially in mid Feb. These stretches are more normal for Jan into early Feb. Oh, BTW, this is the 3rd coldest Feb min on record in Duluth. -39 2/2/96 and -36 2/9/1899 are the top two.

Weak wave moving through on the 13th, with stronger weather much further south on the 14th. I was expecting something a little stronger starting on the 13th into the 14th, not a good call here.

Now that Jan data is out, I updated my chart for the Great Lakes region. Warm Jan's not unusual at all. Data source: https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.pl Edit: changed graph with data from the region reflected here in our forum

Daily temps at Duluth and I-Falls, MN for this outbreak so far. Duluth (Hi/Low) 2/5: 6/-4 2/6: -4/-18 2/7: -7/-23 2/8: -4/-23 2/9: 2/-16 2/10: -1/-17 I-Falls (Hi/Low) 2/5: 3/-9 2/6: -9/-21 2/7: -11/-30 2/8: -7/-38 2/9: -6/-22 2/10: -5/-30

Looks awesome outside through the window. Clear blue skies, bright sunshine reflecting off the snow, and then you open the door....polar bear stampede. Very harsh stuff to have to endure for days on out. These are the days of winter I could careless for as this kind of cold can hurt you quickly. And the next heat bill will be a doosey to boot.

Nasty!