Brian D

Front moving in Saturday, with corresponding high, should push that nasty crap southward away from me. Had enough this summer.

Summer recap shows a very warm 2021. July was closer to average, but still a little warmer. Edit: Replaced with new baseline chart from 1981-2010 to 1901-2000 base.

Definitely a warm August for the region. Edit: Replaced with new baseline chart from 1981-2010 to 1901-2000 base.

Pretty good call for this weekend, except for the turning colder Sun into Mon part. Generally cool over the weekend with milder temps starting on Monday.

Under dense ranking, August will be tied 6th, and summer 11th. Dense ranking weights with the temps. Unlike standard method that weights between temps and years. Temps are more important to me, so dense ranking is my preferred system. I think MRCC cli-mate tool offers that option because others see its value, too. But, to each his own.

12z GFS showing the pattern I'm seeing for this time frame.

I'll work that up, and post it later this month, along with Christmas, and New Years.

I have worked up the rankings for June and July. August I'll post in a few days to let data submissions make it into the system. There are a few stations out there that still submit monthly reports instead of daily internet reports. The dense ranking method (data comes from MRCC cli-mate tool) ranks by each unique temp as the place holder, and the years associated with them. For June and July, the average number of monthly temps is around 80 for max, and 70 for high min (more ties). So you can, by the aforementioned numbers, see how far from average each station was during the month. For those lower ranked stations, I noted if they were top 20 on the cool side to highlight their significance. June was definitely a warm one.

Thought I'd post Labor Day's extremes for max temp. Think we're safe this year. BTW, my forecast for the upcoming weekend that I posted in the "Holiday Forecast" thread looks to be pretty close based on 12z GFS today.

Found the answer. Have to delete old ones. Reaching limit.

What's up with the big decrease in file attachment sizes? Went from well over 1M to 100kb. Not cool.

1.62" of rain yesterday. Total for the month is 2.45", which is an inch below normal. Greenwood fire is 14% contained now at 26,000 acres. Fire slowed quite a bit the last couple days with the cool, moist weather. Heavier rains yesterday were a big help. But today, dry, and breezy west winds could flame up portions of the fire.

Each IR sat frame shows wagons circling ever tighter. BOOM, there it is!!

I posted on page 23 a map of my track for this. I think Marsh Island get the official call. We shall see tomorrow. Poor folks down there. Last year was rough, too.

Radar is lit up this evening. Come on RAIN!! Have had a good drenching so far, but need more. Heavy weather in S MN and to the SW of there. Maybe some tornadoes.

Don't remember, but it was a long while back.

Hurricane Opal many years ago was heading north in the gulf towards Pensacola as Cat 1, and strengthen to Cat 5 overnight. It didn't stay at that level long, but scared the hell out many down there. Tiny storm, too. Landed Cat 2 or 3, don't remember.

What is the tide forecast? High/low/in between? Anyone?

My thoughts here. Ridge tomorrow a.m. stands tough in SE and as it nears shore, a little land friction will move this thing a little west. With it becoming a large, very strong system, it will be influenced easier by these. And it's supposed to slow some coming in, I do believe, so that, too, will make it easier to be influenced by said factors. Either way, a very bad day for LA coming up tomorrow

The next 24hrs shows the best opportunity in weeks for heavier rains. Come on n bring it!!

Had a little yesterday. Most of the rain stayed just west of the Arrowhead, but today looks much better for something significant.

Extensive damage reported around Marble Rock, IA from yesterday evenings tornado.

Tornado watch for east central MN into NW WI until 4pm. West central MN seeing heavy weather with winds up to 70 and 1.25" hail. Radar rotation just WNW of St. Cloud invoked a tornado warning. Looks like a squirrely few hours coming up just south of me.

A cool, overcast day today with low 60's and about 0.25" of rain. Need much more than that. Even still, should help greatly with the Greenwood fire.

Veteran's Day looks to be cool but nice for most with weather in the south, and a front approaching from the west.