IronTy

33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Charts -> Meteograms -> Ensembles (your choice) -> 24hr snow/members

Thank you, found them!   I was searching all over the direct ensembles sub-menu and couldn't find anything.  Didn't realize they were under the charts menu!

22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

That threat at range is insanely boom or bust. Look at those box and whisker plots lol

Where on WB are you getting those?  JB made a post about how to get them not that long ago but, and I consider myself as pretty intelligent, I for the life of me couldn't find them. 

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

fwiw

GFS is like that dude at the end of a frat party when everybody else is passed out or going home and he wants to keep doing keg stands.

6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is a truly scared group in here. I just looked at guidance with the QPF distribution and this is still looking exactly as planned. The most QPF deficient model is the HRRR at range and even that is 1-4” north of I-70, 3-6” Central MD, 4-8” Rt50 on south with even some 8+ possible in Calvert and Northern St Mary’s over into interior lower slower Sussex Co DE. I haven’t seen anything that looks very different. I like what the offices have for WWA and WSW’s across the board. It’s gonna snow! 

My expectation was firmly planted at 4" earlier but thanks to you it's now 8+.  

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

 

I take back everything I said earlier about moons and slush.  

3 minutes ago, diatae said:

The 54 degree rain the next day will take care of anything the moon angle doesn't.

I've never had to shovel a 7-11 slushie before so at least I'll be able to cross that off my life list.  

1 minute ago, TSG said:

And we do have a full moon in 2 days... uh oh. hope the models are taking this into account

Just modified my comment, I'm punting this storm at this point.  

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol, every model has it below freezing well below midnight.  You'll be ok with snow.  It's winter.  

Nah, this late in the season the reflection of the sun angle off the moon should eat into totals unless it's a new moon.  

Sheeeit, I just checked.  Gonna be a full moon, we're hanging on by a thread.  It's over.  

7 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

You don't need frozen ground for snow to accumulate very quickly. 

That said, the potential for meh rates on this one - at least north of DC - could definitely make the OTG totals less impressive overall.

Yeah I know, hence me comment about rates.  Hopefully they're high enough to quickly overcome it.  I've been down here for 20yrs now and have read this book enough times to anchor my expectations on the low end this late in the season.

I'm outside doing some chores getting ready for the storm - washing the car, charging the battery in the muck truck, etc.  I don't even have a coat on and with the sun it feels downright warm.  I'm feeling a bit of bust for this one.  The ground certainly isn't gonna be cold when it starts so im expecting a layer of slush til rates overcome it.  Should make shoveling it real fun.  

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The “point” forecast instead of the range makes sense. The map is made for the point. 

Finally someone has solved the mystery.  

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Every snow map this year has had massive ranges cause we have no idea wtf is going to happen lol

Loving the la plata 3-6" vs the DC 4-8" smh.  

Wife was hanging out with Donovan McNabb and Ludacris earlier.  She's hood like that. 

4 hours ago, TSG said:

This is the exact type of post I'm talking about

I have a detailed mental image of all the significant posters on this forum, what I imagine they look like seated at their computers/phones furiously typing shit out at each run...what they're wearing, their expressions, mannerisms, etc.  It gets very entertaining in my head and all the storylines and interactions between posters. Can probably blame that on autism, but I can't fight it.  

Back to banter...here's the view from wife's box at the SB.  Looks pretty solid.  I'm spending the game looking at my piano and Paul Cardell sheet music.  

Wtf is it possible to get a second 12" storm in one season?   I think that would be the best since 09-10 down here?

Total war

3 minutes ago, stormy said:

I would have never believed this

Time to bring in the confirmed experts

I'm torn, in order to make a late run to victory in the snow total comp I need these storms more north toward DCA/BWI.  On the other hand I just want snow imby and this winter we seem to be in the bullseye so I can't complain. 

29 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

The NW part of the county has, but Stephens City has not had a 6" snowfall since 2016.

Damn, Calvert's a snow town compared to that.  

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

A quiet falls over the crowd.  Babies and pets are being neglected, chores interrupted, work at work has seen a stoppage.  Hope is in the air, Friday night plans being made. And depending on the snowfall amount, money will be made.   

Alcohol? Nose candy? Weed? Combo of all three?...determined by these runs.  Here we go, the storied tale of the wx nerd.  God bless us all.

Model whiplash has Benson exhausted 

Just now, hstorm said:

I, for one, wouldn't be complaining about this.

You are right about one thing, you probably are the only one not complaining lol.  

Just now, paxpatriot said:

Just your run of the mill 300 mile shift south with the heaviest snow, lol.

That Dropsonde must've been carrying a black swan or something.  

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Imma bout to cliff jump.  Out of this thread.  @NorthArlington101, take over for Euro pbp.  I'm irritated tbh.  I'll recover for 12z.  Might be up for 6z

Stay vigilant.  

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Gem looks good

Tariffs have been postponed, we'll allow it.  

You know it's bad when even in mid February Calvert county is still too far north.  100hrs to go, I like where I'm sittin'