IronTy

That's ones a heartbreak down here.  

12Z for the win baby!  

Well that is a nice morning surprise.to start out the New Year.  Good to see the R/S line shifting SE with each run as of late.  Still need to see another couple shifts for MBY but I might have to put the snow blade.on the muck truck today just to be ready.  

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

2016 doesn't even make my top 10. Half a storm here. Dry slotted after 15". The deform band yielded nothing.

Same here, 2016 was kinda meh, at least as much as a 12" storm can be meh.  Dec 2009 ftw in my 20yrs in SoMD.  Of course LES snow in Michigan during my childhood was on another level...but that's not the same. 

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the biggest problem is the antecedent airmass just isn’t cold enough for a good but somewhat flawed setup to work. We could over analyze whatever little thing causes this or that. But systems will try to find the Barcelona’s boundary. And the real boundary with the best gradient is to our north. 

Barcelona's boundary?  Is that near Short Pump?

Man I feel WB is running their models on an old Pentium chip, these panels take forever.  

Udderly the most severe looking period I've seen on the models in decades.  

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

The question is should I stick my head in the sand and pull a JB and just stay with a busted forecast no matter what the new evidence says?  I can just keep saying “it’s coming” until March no matter what. Or do I adapt based on the best available new evidence and accept when I was wrong?  

JB has been lashing out at model runs recently which is always a bad sign.  And this morning in a post he laid the groundwork for his forecast fail.  "Just be glad you got to live through an epic period for snow storms".  This might actually be a good contrarian signal for us. 

Last night it was the bug zapper...this morning I noticed one of my hanging petunias is still holding on.  I'm rooting for it.  

I'm on my back patio and the bug zapper light is on and it legit just zapped a bug two days before January.  

17 minutes ago, stormy said:

Whether its the 4th or 7th or the 13th. The amount of gloom is amazing.  50 years ago before all the nonsense with models, folks didn't worry about all of this crap, and it occasionally snowed.

The historical sweet time has always been Jan. 15 to Mar. 15.  Considering all the possibilities I don't believe we will be disappointed.  Many will be hilariously happy with 5".  We don't need 18 inches. 

Chalk it up to another thing the Internet has ruined 

6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Unless things turn around……8 days into winter?

Sun angle already increasing.  Only a matter of time.

Just now, aldie 22 said:

I know a good brand 

Unless things turn around I think it's the motto for this winter.

The Udder Disaster Winter 

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 udder disaster fail.  

Lol that sums it up, time for a glass of milk.  

We need a larger continent. 

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

What I’ve realized is what they’re actually implying is it’s almost impossible, given the pacific cycle we are in combined with “that which shall not be named” for us to get a true cold/snowy winter. Given the last 8 years there is ample evidence they could be right. Maybe we just don’t want to admit it.

There's hope for you yet!

Anecdotal....

We have started the process to build our cabin on Meadow Mountain next to DCL.  We own the land already so it'll be build only.  Planning on a relatively modest A-frame at this point.  So far the process has been relatively painless. We have the concept and the architect has started work on construction drawings.  We are deciding between two builders at this point.  Goal is to begin construction in March and be completed by the holidays next year.  So far all guidance is that this is doable.

I'll build deadline penalties into the builder contract to keep them motivated, and we are doing everything with cash already on hand so maybe that helps too.  

So far we're being quoted around $220/sqft.  That's build only - like I said we already own the land.  Big variable will be cost to get electric from the nearest pole to the POE.  

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

okay---as bad as todays runs are....this gives me great entertainment lol

https://www.newsweek.com/us-may-headed-brutally-cold-january-1856152#:~:text=Many meteorologists previously predicted a,weather across the southwestern U.S

Now we know where JB is getting his "coldest since the pleistocene" call from.  

23 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Part of the reason our climate is warming is due to all the hot air being blown around in these forums. 

In all seriousness, though, all those who truly believe this winter(or all winters moving forward) are dead, do yourselves a favor and step away from the models and the forums. If you are 100% sure of what's coming, then there's absolutely no reason to keep looking. 

Triggered!!!!

This is a deb safe space, be gone with your treachery and polyanna ways!

15 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

The consensus in the 1970s was we were heading into another ice age and not much would stop it.  50 years later now look at us.

If it was about to turn hard in another direction again how would anyone know?  And if it’s cold again in 50 years but we’re all dead anyway does it even matter?  Probably not

We need to hope for a THC shutdown.  Or maybe Greenland just all melts one summer and throws us into an ice age.  Or maybe a supervolcano or asteroid hit.  Those could turn things in our favor on a dime . 

JB just posted about how the upcoming period has the most severe cold potential of any period he's seen in years.  Finally some good news that you can take to the bank, guaranteed.  

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

We're getting crushed here 7 miles west of Annopoils. It looks to continue for a while. I take back what I said about it being a lame rain event. I wish this was a snow event. 

Same here in Calvert.  It's dumping.  

2 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Not PSU's fault. Its the warming planet. I thought those anomalous warm oceans would help the snow. Naaaah. All the warm ocean did was bring tons of frackin' RAIN.

I've been saying this for years but I might as well be howling at the moon.  The warming ocean WILL help produce monster snowstorms...up until a point.  And then it'll be just too warm to snow at all and we'll only end up as rain.  We had a blowout season in 09-10 and the NE had one five years later like I expected.  And it's generally sucked since then.  Now we're in the rain-only phase.   Might as well embrace it and welcome the arrival of anoles and geckos followed by larger and ever more dangerous reptiles as the years go by.  

37 minutes ago, CAPE said:

When the goal is snow and most of us live well east of the Allegheny front, like I said, it's super easy to be a pessimist. Boring. More rewarding to do the analysis, have fun with the tracking process, and when it pays off, fucking enjoy the hell out of it. Frankly, some here should find another hobby.

Not sure I'd say it's easier to be a pessimist around here so much as it's just more accurate given our location...assuming the goal is snow as you say.  But I do agree that incessant bellyaching isn't really contributing much and its probably just best to find a new hobby.  

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Its easy af to be pessimistic, given our location. What's the point in doing that though? We know the potential upside when it all comes together. Lets look for the key pieces that can make that happen. They are there on guidance.

I think this board is a microcosm of human behavior.  Some people tend toward optimism, some toward pessimism.  I posit there are few areas where this is more blatant than the weather.  It's something that nobody can do a damn thing about and really unmasks our inherent biases.  

I tend toward "defensive pessimism".  Eternal optimists annoy the fock out of me.  But it's like an introvert vs an extrovert.  Neither is inherently wrong or bad.

And let's face it, the pessimists have gotten it right for a while now.