IronTy

What a crap hobby.  The models are like some sick version of Schoedinger's cat.  Just by fact of modeling a storm it causes the actual wave function to collapse so the storm disappears.  We'd be in the same shape this winter to date if they'd have just shown the SER on every run since November.

I'll fall on the sword - you all cancel your WB subscriptions and instead pay me monthly.  I'll produce snow maps that show monster storms and post them up four times a day.  I'll guarantee you ahead of time that I'll pull the rug at some point before my predicted storm but at least I'll shows HECS and BECS on all the maps right up to the event so we can live in denial for longer.  Frankly that would be just as accurate forecasting snow as the real models have done for the past few years.

Muck truck Snow blade inverse index wins again.  

3 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

 

 

Well, I took down half the outdoor Christmas lights this morning, been leaving them up because wife (CA girl) wanted to see the lights in snow. We DID get almost an inch the other day, and it was pretty. I'm SURE we'll get 10 inches now that they are down lol. 

Yeah well I also washed the NSX this morning....just to ensure it's all gonna be rain.  And I was too lazy to take the summer tires off it, just to ensure dry cold after the storm. 

Since we're doing our best to jinx the storm I put the blade on the muck truck and am charging it up.

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JB made a post about how he wasn't expecting the euro 12Z output.  That's probably the final nail in the coffin, euro can be locked in.  

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Look at hr 192.  Total dry coast to coast. All four corners.  Maybe that’s just a wipe slate clean reset.  Not often you see that 

Drought confirmed 

22 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

All of us ITT:
 

Haha I was thinking inception when I read this.  

3 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

They have maybe 0.5% more skill than throwing darts. Mostly printing out old El Niño analogs from what I’ve seen

Honestly for the last couple years the best model has been the Panic Room thread.  Basically just get your winter weather forecast from there and it's been pretty accurate.  No fancy models needed. 

9 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

27 degrees. Posted up halfway between Hagerstown and Cumberland at around 1500 feet.

I'm doing a quantum mechanics degree and I'm obsessed with the universe and all the physics involved.  None of that is important other than to say that's an awesome picture and the number of stars visible is exceptional.  Where'd that all come from?  The universe is a mind boggling thing.  Congrats on that awesome pic.  

6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Haven't seen this one in a while.  IYKYK.  Ellinwood take notes!

What..in the everloving God made that map?  My eyes are accosted.   I hope nobody was paid to do this.  As long as the Virgin Islands are profiled I guess it's cool. 

Dropped down to freezing (we are a degC household). Petunias should cave soon.

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2 hours ago, stormy said:

We used to be a snow town but Spruce and Snowshoe have gotten greedy in recent years since the Atlantic has divorced us.

We can always chase to death valley for their upcoming storm. 

1 minute ago, stormy said:

I'm much warmer down here in Augusta at 40.

Is that Augusta, Georgia?  I hear they're a snow town now.  

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

18z HRR really nails NNE. But even Boston changes over to rain. 

It looks like these maps are generated on an Atari.  Is this what my tax dollars are going to?

Hell, even down by the bay I've dropped to 39F with clear skies.  Gonna make that rain as cold as possle.  

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

I thought it was a scab and started picking at it and luckily it came off. Did you get lymes?

Man I got Lyme's and spent almost 8yrs trying to figure out what was wrong with me - went to a zillion doctors over the years and thought I was going crazy.  Finally someone ordered the proper test and figured out all along it was Lyme's.  4mo of antibiotics and I was cured.  Of course all those antibiotics landed me in the emergency room four separate times with massive C Diff infections but them's the breaks.  

18 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Mostly everywhere lol 

My dad texted a link that death valley was going to have its biggest snow event in 100yrs.  So you can add death valley to the list of snowier places than us.  

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

It seems this winter so far there is a lot of potential always at Day 10+ and that it keeps fizzling out for one reason or another as we get closer.  

I don't know, I don't often look at the LR maps, but when I do they portend the most SEVERE cold seen in the L48 in years.  This time is no different.  Be informed.  

My game cam shows snow on the ground up at deep creek elev 3000ft.  

9 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Early call from NWS

Not sure if those are rain or snow values, could be either.  Smh.

19 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Is JB offering you a job? 

No I didn't forecast -10F on all the anomalies so JB banned me from working at WB.  

27 minutes ago, H2O said:

The 3 models you beat were the CRAS, NAM and ICON.  Nothing to brag about, bro

I wonder which models they use - since it's an entire month I assumed it was the long range models.  Whichever three it was they should just pay me their dev fees and I'll spit out random number that'll be more accurate.  The secret is no matter what the pattern looks like to just guess positive on the anomalies.  Almost a guaranteed lock.  

What the fuq.  I just got the results of the WB December forecast competition.  I was in the top 25% of entries...beat almost half the models and 33% of WB's professional forecasters.  If that doesn't tell you what kind of scam this industry is then nothing will.  I don't even drink and I still think I was drunk when I made my entries.

"Congratulations on ranking 19 out of 72 competitors in WeatherBELL's December Forecast Competition! You've shown impressive skill in long-range weather forecasting, beating 3 out of 7 models and 2 out of 6 members of the WeatherBELL team!"

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

18z will be telling.

I'm pretty sure I know what it's going to be telling us.  

I don't know why I allowed myself to have any hope for this storm.  Like I haven't learned this lesson like 45 times over the years.  Looking at the 10-day forecast on my WeatherBug app is more accurate than watching the models ..