csnavywx

I'd do your shopping this weekend. If it goes full KU/Miller A, and it's starting to lean that way, then you don't want to be fighting the madhouse when that news gets out.

100%. Doing my shopping today before people lose their collective minds. Remember the gas, rock salt, matches and cash.

Time to unlock that thread, Randy.

00Z suite was made from pure snow weenie dreams.

Looks similar. Ceiling on this one could be a bit higher. In my experience, the big dogs are usually pretty synoptically obvious and show up on guidance earlier than most events. Solution stability brought on by larger, more stable parts. The PV streamer that comes off the Hudson Bay TPV and the timing of the southern stream shortwave are probably the parts with the biggest slippage, but given that these are currently large, stable systems means it's rather unlikely all of this is a hallucination.

CIPS analog system at T+156 with a signal here.

Willing to bet it'll end up more like Wed. aftn/overnight into Thu.

Wave timing and phasing, basically. A big dog will require the southern stream and northern stream to have a well-timed phase. Even a partial phase can produce decent totals here, so we don't need it to be perfect. The advantage this go-around is that both players are already on the board and are fairly large-scale (one is a large vort/TPV over the Husdon Bay and the other is a large system south of the Aleutians), so it's unlikely this is some hallucination. Most of the volatility is from the vort streamer from the Hudson Bay TPV -- basically the energy that gets left behind underneath the block that's breaking down. If the southern stream is too slow or the PV streamer is too far west or doesn't materialize to the strength that is currently progged, then those could cause some fail modes.

Yep. Having it come in just 2-3 days behind this weekend's system is going to help quite a bit. Bulk of the CAA is on Monday, so only a short time for airmass modification before this one arrives. This weekend's system also doesn't entirely scour the Gulf either, leaving some room for return flow to tap in some moisture.

Notable that every single piece of guidance today has an event at D6-D7 and the spread is unusually small for this distance.

Most guidance has come around to a slider/Hatteras track. Still some wiggle room, but the "waveguide" looks good. Hard to be upset at the general setup 6-7 days out.

Looking like Leonardtown-->Easton--> Sussex jackpotted in with a 9-11" band (just outside the mixing line). I thought the max amount over here in SoMD would be about 20mi further north, but very close to the final max band! Perhaps surprising a bit were the 7+ totals all the way down to Pt. Lookout. That initial intense shove of f-gen forcing dropped some 2"/hr rates there with the first band. Personally I ended around 6.5" with about 1.25" of sleet included in there. VERY dense snowpack. Probably 4 or 5:1.

Mixing line has stalled for now just to my north. Snow attempting to mix back in. Have just been piling on a bunch of sleet for a few hours. About .6 of that on top of 4.5" of snow.

Large scale pattern looks great. Titanic -AO/-NAO block that shoves in an Arctic outbreak this weekend and leaves some vort behind. Def some potential to work with there as the block weakens.

Mostly heavy sleet at this point. Still a few aggregates mixing in and some small needles and plates from the relatively deep cold layer underneath the warm nose. 4.9" measured. Compaction from the sleet layer getting significant. I know we're still dealing with this storm until tomorrow morning but it does look like we'll get another shot around the 20th. Titanic Greenland block/-AO should push in a big outbreak of cold air after this weekend and set up a several-day-long window for a system to slide into a favorable waveguide as the block gradually weakens.

Heavy sleet with some snow mixed in. 4.9". Turning into concrete. Roads are a disaster.

Mixing with sleet again. Still coming down pretty heavily.

The fact that we got a full night of radiational cooling followed by thick clouds right before sunrise definitely helped in this case.

Back to 1-2"/hr rates, mixing stopped. Strong lift, frontogen. circulation, and high precip rates have thusfar been pretty successful at cooling and eventually washing out these above-freezing warm nose intrusions.

Back to all snow and fat quarter-sized aggregates. Rates not as insane but still respectable.

Started snowing at 1:17pm. Quick ramp to 1"+/hr. Now at 2" with some sleet starting to mix in. Max band prob going to end up a bit north of me.

2.0". Bit of sleet already mixing in.

KNUI 111946Z AUTO 00000KT M1/4SM +SN FG VV004 00/00 A3029 RMK AO2 P0013 T00000000 Some really cracked snowfall rates in that band coming up from the south. .13" liquid in an hour.

Yep. Doing 1"+/hr now. 1.4 total so far.

Intensity really ramped up fast. Now heavy snow. Particularly intense mesoscale band starting to establish nearby.