csnavywx

Absolutely wild watching power flashes mixed with eyewall lightning as the core approaches.

Seeing power flashes occasionally on https://webcamsdemexico.com/webcam/acapulco-panoramica/

Dreams resort still up: Bahía de Acapulco en vivo, Acapulco - Webcams de México (webcamsdemexico.com)

Yeah, getting knocked offline one by one here. Dreams resort still going strong.

Notable increase in noise on the first resort webcam in the last 10m.

https://webcamsdemexico.com/webcam/playa-de-acapulco/

https://webcamsdemexico.com/webcam/bahia-de-acapulco/

Couple of webcams overlooking the bay.

22 minutes ago, Amped said:

It did finally take a westward jog in the last 15 minutes.

Needs to plow due N to spare the worst damage at this point. Last second left turn (aka NHC track) would actually be a huge negative.

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So now Tonga is supposed to enhance blocking?

https://essopenarchive.org/users/304243/articles/657090-long-term-surface-impact-of-hunga-tonga-hunga-ha-apai-like-stratospheric-water-vapor-injection

I believe this was a topic of discussion back in May ITT. Global effects small, but regionally could have an impact.

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All of Canada has experienced historic blocking beyond anything we have seen in the past from May to October. But none of the El Niño or -PDO composites have a block like this. So there has to be something else at work. Probably a combination of factors. The chart below will be even more impressive when it gets updated to include October. Brian B made a post about this when it started back in May. 

 

 

 

Tonga paper had a pretty sizable regional ++ ridging tendency in this area in model years 2-7. Might be a player here.

2 minutes ago, roardog said:

My point is that if it advances rapidly at the end of the month like Judah hints at, you would want it to start low. 

Still time for recovery, yes. Just not a great start. Pattern gets better in the last 7-10 days of the month, but not looking like an upper 50% type of year right now.

+IOD response feeling left out of this conversation (note these are for Nov/Dec):

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00328-z

On 9/15/2023 at 10:12 AM, bdgwx said:

I also monitor the daily JRA55 values. So far the implied value for GISTEMP coming from JRA is 1.36 C which is close to the record of 1.37 C set in 2016/02. JRA correlates with GISTEMP at R^2 = 0.87 so it is a pretty good predictor. As I've said before it is getting harder and harder to dismiss the accelerated warming hypothesis.

Lmfao. Crushed it. Ended at 0.17 above this. Legit shot of not only smashing Feb. 16 but also printing the first 1.5C in the GISS data set.

Of course there's gonna be a competition and emotions. Snow is on the line here. More valuable than cocaine on this board. Has been for 20+ years (here+eastern).

8 hours ago, chubbs said:

A particularly large rise in OHC in 2022 per small chart in upper left. The global temp records we are seeing this year aren't surprising, given the nina-related warmth stored in the ocean the past couple of years.

The jump since '20 has been surprisingly strong. 60-65ZJ just since then.

Plenty warm enough given its location, strength and mode of formation. Not really a factor here. Don't forget that current speeds in the Gulf Stream are on the order of 1 m/s. Only takes a few days in that area to recover from upwelling induced by wind as there's always a fresh supply advected in.

6 hours ago, Normandy said:

This is the most super interesting thing to me too.  If El Niño is no longer a hurricane suppressant……then what are we looking at in terms of future hurricane seasons?  What does a La Niña look like with record warmth?  What does neutral look like?Would love met thoughts.

Nino tends to suppress more over the Caribbean and GOM than it does out in the MDR or particularly the subtropical Atlantic. It's just that there's been a big expansion of the 26C isotherm both spatially and at depth over the last 40y (and especially the last few years) in these areas where a Nino won't really help stop development.

Obviously if you don't have a mod-strong Nino in place helping shear part of the basin, then this leaves open more area over time to higher SSTs and OHC. ENSO isn't the only game in town though, and changes to static stability via SAL intrusions and the West African Monsoon are important too.

39 minutes ago, drstuess said:

I was being sarcastic regarding post, hence the "average=sum". Adding /s si you don't lump me in with the poster I was quoting.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk
 

Doh! Poe's Law strikes again!

On 9/15/2023 at 8:34 PM, drstuess said:

No, they just take the cumulative value across the stations. Everyone knows average = sum.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk
 

So, if you were to hand-draw a CONUS surface temperature chart with isotherms, you're telling me that the temperature would go *up* the more stations I have? News to me.

8 hours ago, bdgwx said:

I also monitor the daily JRA55 values. So far the implied value for GISTEMP coming from JRA is 1.36 C which is close to the record of 1.37 C set in 2016/02. JRA correlates with GISTEMP at R^2 = 0.87 so it is a pretty good predictor. As I've said before it is getting harder and harder to dismiss the accelerated warming hypothesis.

Gonna be wild if we end up breaking Feb '16 with a *September* reading, considering the current Sep. record is about 0.30 below that level.

13 hours ago, bdgwx said:

GISS reported 1.24 C for August.

 

Sep. already stacking some nuclear daily prints on moyhu. Prob going to end up above Aug at this point. Still 5 or 6 months of prints until ENSO peak.

Some pretty clear SW shear undercutting the outflow this AM on visible sat. Vortex centered skew-Ts show this persisting around the 300mb level for a good 36 hours, so this will likely limit strength until it abates.

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Inversion down below 850mb now. Warm core getting very intense.

We'll have to see the dropsonde, but in especially intense TCs with very strong warm cores, the max wind can be under 10kft and have a smaller-than-normal reduction to the surface. (see: Mitch)

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

7 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 
I really want to know what the + means in 5+. 

He probably just means significantly above the 135 kt threshhold. I mean, if Lee were to reach MPI after the first EWRC, it could get down in the 910s. A 150 kt storm is not impossible with this setup. I'm not calling for that as there can always be unexpected variables, but he probably thinks it will.

Yeah, I mean the more reliable guidance is down in the 910s-920s with a superb setup and gargantuan upper level outflow channels, so it checks out. ERCs and a touch of mid-level shear are the biggest "issues".

Ah, the dreaded shrimp. This storm is speedrunning all of the harbingers of a future buzzsaw.

Don't love that upstream pattern amplification trend on the latest runs, either.