csnavywx

Finally ended down here. Getting power flickers and still hearing the occasional branch crash outside. Will get a proper radial measurement in the morning. Headed to bed.

The NAM's ability to get thermals right is very useful. As was the fact that CAMs were useful today with the embedded heavy rain showers. Can always use other guidance for precip amounts.

Chef's kiss. (Watch til the end)

It's another tool in the toolbox. I am personally *very* pleased with the EC-AIFS and AIGFS with the last storm. Helped me keep my sanity when every other piece of guidance was insisting on washing out the CAD here today, against every bone in my body. Anyways, link is here: WeatherNext 2.0 Model Viewer

It's going to be quite a bit worse just northwest of me. Lotta places never got above 29.

Hearing the occasional branch crash outside. Ice casing on the sleetpack is thick enough to be relatively difficult to break now.

About a quarter inch of glaze so far.

Temp should mostly stall or only very slowly rise once the winds flip NW. Hour or two?

Have been getting absolutely crapped on by freezing rain. Lost what sleet was left about 45m-1hr ago. 29F.

Freezing rain and 27 degrees here. Only 3 hours til sunset, wind has shifted northwest. 0.5-0.75 of liquid to go. Wish me luck. If we can't break above 30 before dark, it's going to get nasty here.

26F, Freezing rain has begun. Light glaze so far.

That's an impressive coastal front. I wasn't thinking you'd get much in the way of ice out there. But there's a chance that front gets pushed back through later this evening before the last line of precipitation is through and it might give you a glaze. Up in the air at this point since we're so far away from almost any guidance at this point.

Pounding sleet and needles still. Some of the highest rates of sleet I've seen. Vis about half a mile.

Wild. How much are you up to?

Ehhhhhhhh....Highest

Yep. I'm getting primarily needles, which would match up with that.

Update: Still sleeting but back to feeder-generated powder snow that's actually accumulating.

I got a couple of hours of seeder-generated powder snow after flipping to sleet. That CAD is some serious business.

The models that seem to verify best right now are the AI-GFS and EC-AIFS models (with the HRDPS coming the closest among the traditionals -- it slowed down the coastal front more than the others). EC-AIFS has you getting above freezing, but only briefly this afternoon and interestingly, neither of us get above freezing on the AI-GFS now. The slow-moving coastal front scenario and temps staying down more than forecast was a big worry for us at the office. Warm noses and CAD are something NWP in general can have a tough time with. We purposefully hedged lower on temps. Maybe not enough. We'll see.

Well the mesos all have everyone just south and east of Salisbury above freezing already. They're struggling a bit with this sharp coastal front that has developed.

We flipped a while ago. But the sub-warm nose layer is so cold we are mixing fine powdery snow (from precip seeding) again. Pretty nice bonus.

Little bit of good news. The sub-warm nose layer is so cold we're getting snow to develop out of it (from precip seeding from above). Pouring clear ice pellets with a nice powder/pixie dust to go with it. Vis notably restricted.

3" on ground. Pouring sleet here. Transitioned over a period of about 90 minutes. Coming down hard enough that it's still accumulating.

3" on ground. Pouring sleet now. 18F. Coastal front appears to be set up over on the lower eastern shore (coastal side), but moving a bit slower than forecasted.