csnavywx

First flakes falling here. Took a good 2 hours of returns aloft to saturate up.

Intense 700-850mb frontogenesis with this system will probably produce a period of 1-2" rates before changeover. After loading up BUFKIT, it's hard to see how we don't see at least *some* mixing, but the impact will be less for those along and north of a Waldorf-Easton-Sussex DE line. Further south, p-type changes over to sleet around 21-23Z, which will cut down on some of the totals. The warm nose is far enough up into the column that strong lift and melting could enhance an east-west band where p-type could flip several times depending on intensity. One thing is for sure, you'll need to smell the mixing line to get the best totals.

I'll break out BUFKIT for the 18z runs once they're all in.

Southern edge of the Nina battle zone. Some drought busting rains with the occasional nailbiter. Tues/Weds looks decent for Waldorf-Easton-Sussex with some mixing issues for me and you after a solid front end thump. Track looks good, with a slider off of Hatteras, so it's hard for me to get too bearish on that. Small change in thermals or a melt-enhanced mesoscale band could easily bump up totals further south.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17#

Dusting here. Snow appears to be hugging the 700mb frontogen chart pretty well.

Ditto -- really tired of coddling it. It's over -- they lost. On every conceivable metric possible. No that does not mean snow disappears. Transient regional responses mean that weird shit can happen, and should be *expected* to happen. As it turns out, warming the IO and N. Pac this rapidly has consequences downstream that may run counter to the global trend on a seasonal timeframe.

Yep, I think Salisbury manages a consolation prize with this event. Enough lift to overwhelm the low level dry air for a while. Might eke out an inch or so there.

Suppression threat looming here. Best shot may actually be the wave later in the week, particularly if it can get closer to a neutral tilt earlier. Still plenty of cold air around.

Some flakes falling here. Ensemble guidance starting to look more promising wrt next week, but it's too early to start hyping. Hopefully most of that vort stays back near the longwave axis and is available to come out in one piece. A real Gulf low into this setup could be a big producer.

Threw some snow showers in the forecast for tonight. Weakly stable to moist neutral layer with some lift from DPVA and a front to work with. There's also a weak clipper type system on Thu with a favorable 500mb track. Could pick up some light snow from that too.

Ya'll are hoping for that GFS weak overrunning solution when the real money is closer to the 18Z Euro that hangs most of the energy back in the base of the longwave and is thus available for a Gulf low rather than a weak slider that comes out in pieces. We've got some real cold air to work with this time, so stop worrying about the thermals.

Got around an inch or so with the weekend system, looked like more fell just south of here. Would agree that the pattern improves by the end of this week -- although there's a risk the pattern becomes *too* suppressive.

Getting a mix of aggregates and heavily rimed flakes and fat snow grains.

Might, it will be close. I think Salisbury is probably better positioned this time around.

Surface low track, jet, and mid-level feature forecasts sure beat the hell out of paying too much attention to QPF amounts with a system like this. The overperformance on QPF upstream over the Plains and Mid-South is pretty unsurprising so far. I think some of that translates up here tomorrow. It's not the best setup in the world, but it's a near perfect Southern Slider track for here and the positive-going-neutral and forcing from the left-exit region of the mid/upper jet is pretty damn good too. Should at least get a narrow stripe of enhanced totals from that and it's good to see the guidance finally start trending that direction with the precip field.

Hudson Bay is still open on the east side. Probably not going to get to full thickness this season.

Wouldn't be surprised at a WWA soon, probably warrants it.

Still looking decent for a few inches (2-3") for far S. MD and the lower eastern shore. Track is good. My guess is St. Mary's City to Salisbury on south are the best spots to be this time around.

Liking the flattish track of the next system. Looks like a classic southern slider. Some room for incremental improvement with slightly better phasing, but this one is unlikely to curve up the coast and cause a bunch of mixing issues. Shared energy area on the front side of the trough between the subtropical and polar jets should keep it from doing so. "Positive going neutral" tilt trough works just fine for us.

Just about over. 2" of new snow from the backside.

Extra inch so far from the backside.

I think you to Sussex Cty., DE are going to be the jackpot area. Prob get close to a foot up there. More like 8" from here to Salisbury after the backside tonight.

Flipped back to all snow 20m after this. Piling up quick on this last push.

About as expected. Is nice to see some fight on the transition line though. 30% sleet and 70% enormous aggregates of snow. Absolutely dumping.