The 12z GFS was something else. Even though something like this (closed 600 dm near STL) is unlikely, it is going to be interesting if some of the heat that has moved over to the Northern Plains does finally eject this way sometime in August.
No, it is mostly that the ridge has set up pretty far west. We get bigger heat when the ridge sets up either over us or in the central US and the heat “rolls over” to us. This year we are above normal on 90 degree days but below normal on 95+. A fairly average summer under the new 91-20 climate norms.
The GFS is quite dry with a NW flow for most of the run beyond this weekend. Hopefully we can all score before we get into the real crispy time of year.
Sometimes it seems to play a huge factor, and other times it doesn’t. I’m sure it is all about the structure of the atmosphere above the surface. My 0.01” suggests that it was a killer this time.
Got 0.18” after midnight. Combine that with an equivalent amount in the evening and I ended up 0.4”.
In the end, the dry models were too sharp with the cutoff on the NW side, but the wet models weren’t as good with the track.