MN Transplant

1.72” so far.  Even more just west of the Beltway.

80/60 at DCA.

79.2 here

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Who the hell is tent camping in a blizzard??

Have you met anyone on this board?

12z NAM 3k is a bit more frisky than prior runs.  Both the NAM and HRRR indicate that there may be a set of cells out in front of the main line, which is pretty common around here.

27 minutes ago, H2O said:

already sunny so we got that going for us.  This one gonna surprise some people

Feels sickly humid too after getting a nice break.

Wouldn’t mind a soak this week.

Last 30 days percentage of normal precip.

2 hours ago, Kay said:

One of the nicest things about fall and the end of AC is always being able to hear the outdoors while indoors. The wind in the trees is glorious today.

They are building a 16 house subdivision around the corner from me, so I mostly hear beeping trucks.  But hey, if you want to drop $1.7M+ on a house you can be my neighbor and you won't even have to buy a weather station!

Along with the lack of rain has been a lack of wind recently.  True doldrums.  The clumps of cicada leaves falling off the trees today gave me that thought.

21 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I’m actually hoping for a bit of rain today.  Despite the overall humid murk, it has been really dry over the last 3+ weeks.  I’m at 0.08” so far for October.

Pretty much a region-wide thing over the last 3 weeks.

I’m actually hoping for a bit of rain today.  Despite the overall humid murk, it has been really dry over the last 3+ weeks.  I’m at 0.08” so far for October.

10 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

 

 

That map has adjacent zones with over a month differential.  Not sure it is the best way to display it.

The month started ok, but pretty dreary over the last week.  Even when there are spikes of more solar, they are short-lived.

Euro and GFS now pumping out near-record mid-80s Fri/Sat before the front gets here.

18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I have unbelievably fond memories of Cox Farms. It's a great place -- but definitely less and less of a secret every year, if it ever was.. It was crazy before social media really took off ~15 years ago, can't be better now. 

Everybody seems to be having a lot of fun.  Nice weather for it.  Glad the sun isn’t out.

First time at Cox Farms.  Apparently with most of the rest of Northern VA.

Sam is now the #1 ACE system in the 2021 Atlantic season

I figured that the ridge out west would hold and we wouldn't go super-high this year, but the final numbers are shockingly low, especially RIC.

It feels right for the GOAT kicker to have the record.

On 9/25/2021 at 8:10 AM, WxUSAF said:

All that whinging about D10 progs that were chilly and then warmed up…6z GFS has highs in the 60s from Wednesday through next weekend.

The big problem with the GFS forecast now is that we barely see the sun for a week starting 5-6 days out.

On 9/24/2021 at 3:01 PM, WEATHER53 said:

My Winter Outlook for DC area 2021-22

Temps:-0.5 to -2.5.

Snowfall:12-15”

i don’t have a monthly order because too much conflict.

Analog years 1979-80, 1992-93, 2010-11

interesting to note 1979 had a record setting snow around 10/10 so let’s see if we get a cold precip event.  1993 had probably the biggest weather event ever around here March 1993.  We dont give the credit for huge single events like that but do apply 5” credit

We deemphasize ENSO as it’s erratic and it always come down to the cold air source for DC.  We mostly take occurrent events from March  into Sept and look for matching patterns or events and forecast forward.

I remember about 3/4 years ago Isotherm and me both predicted a -5 February and it hit and although I don’t say Feb I do think we have one -4/-5 month.

Thats it and let us know what your outlook is. 

 

 

 

 

 

The last winter that fell in that temperature range at DCA was 13-14.

Actually had to close the windows up again since it popped to 74 and it is still kind of humid out with everything so wet.  Looks like there is a second surge of drier air coming this evening.

2.25”.  
 

looks like the big spots were E and W of Frederick this time.

Big severe warning box south of DC.  Guess it makes sense with how quickly these are moving.