MN Transplant

31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This is the meme template of the year, IMO.

Dumping

24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@nj2va thanks! We managed to convince the rest of the family, so hopefully we’ll book the house today.

If you haven't in the past, make sure to hit Swallow Falls State Park.  That is a gem.

Three-day precip, to give a little context to the pre-game action too.

7 minutes ago, H2O said:

More than me and I’m east of you. 
 

2.17” and rain ending

I did better yesterday, I think.  I'm under 2" since midnight.

Looks like I'm going to end up in the 2.4-2.5" range with a peak gust in the 20s.  Not unexpected, but kind of a dud the further west you get.  Heck of a show in MD/DE, though!

12 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Im expecting some sun later in the day

You won't have to wait long.

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ok, let me get this straight ... it’s raining hard? 
 

From the west side of the Beltway - no.  

Down to 70 at DCA.  Lowest since June 26th.

Gust to 51 mph at Richmond.

1 hour ago, Deck Pic said:

4z HRRR is pretty dirty. Lets hope it's right.

5z HRRR is on crack.  Has better winds at DCA than they got in Wilmington.

Um

Eastern eyewall is cranking

There is a 111 mph inbound pixel on the Wilmington velocity scan.  Obviously well off the  surface, but not bad.

Straight from the horse's mouth (Lance Bosart of Albany via the MAP mailing list)

"As Isaias accelerates north-northeastward after landfall in the Carolinas the northern part of its rain shield will attempt to merge with the southern end of a separate rain area near the central Appalachians. This separate rain area, which has some elements of a predecessor rain event, is associated with weak warm-air advection in the equatorward entrance region of a strengthening jet streak. The absence of an antecedent cool high over eastern Canada has limited the magnitude of the lower tropospheric thermal gradient across the Northeast and the potential for significant warm-air advection well in advance of TS Isaias."

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Happy hour runs so far look a bit west and more juiced across the board. 

NAM Nest is robust.  And as we all know, it is the best tropical model out there.

10 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

How does the bay fair? To me if they are 70+ this is legit even in DC.

Probably easiest to step through here:  https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/maryland/gusts-1h-3h-mph/20200804-1300z.html

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS looks solid for 95 corridor. 3-6”. Has a pretty healthy amount of rain this evening. 

Probably more realistic on gusts.  ~40-45 mph in the 95 corridor.

12z HRRR was a disappointment for 95 and west.  12z NAM Nest still looks quite good, with gusts in the 50s and 4-6" of rain.

1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said:

what time is this showing?  Im in a trailer in ocean city and am going to get a hotel room.  Trying to decide if I should get one tonight and do late check out tomm.  Or get one tomm and request early check-in.  Dont feel like paying for 2 nights.

Here’s Ocean City from the Euro.  The times are local.

The Windy app has this handy “wind accumulation” map.  Effectively, it is the highest wind gust at any one point from the models.

The Euro is presented for weenie purposes only since we know that the wind products are problematic.

Low 50s at DCA, low 60s Balt inner harbor, low 70s Annapolis, low 80s Salisbury.

The GFS shaves 15-30 mph off that.  The NAM Nest has a flatter distribution in the 50s, which is still impressive.

3 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

That was great. Ripping wind for hours and hours. Is that type of thing rare here?

Very rare.  That was a special event.

Just now, jewell2188 said:

When was the last time the entire area actually had something to talk about here lol??? Certainly wasn’t this past winter!!!

That March synoptic wind event from a couple of years ago!

HRRR puts down 1.5”-3” for many of us before the core of the storm gets here.  

4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Think we will have a hurricane again at 11 he’s really breathing again 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

Still looking ragged on radar on the S and SW sides, but the towers on the IR and the canopy on the water vapor loop certainly show a storm that is holding its own.